Financial guys: Crisis incoming

[BigBucnNole]

Are you saying increasing wages on the bottom tier has no effect of total government money spent?

I must be retarded because I had a tough time figuring out what you were saying here and everyone seems to understand it just fine.

I'm saying because the bottom tiers get so many transfer payments from the government, that increasing the minimum is going to rescind some of the transfer payments. And it should keep prices largely in check.

Bigger concern will be the domino effect on higher wages above minimum currently. I think that's a wait and see but it'll probably be mostly muted too. It would be an impact on someone like a manager at a walmart, and they're probably in the welfare bubble as well that would see reduce future government benefits.

 

[America 1st]

I'm saying because the bottom tiers get so many transfer payments from the government, that increasing the minimum is going to rescind some of the transfer payments. And it should keep prices largely in check.

Bigger concern will be the domino effect on higher wages above minimum currently. I think that's a wait and see but it'll probably be mostly muted too. It would be an impact on someone like a manager at a walmart, and they're probably in the welfare bubble as well that would see reduce future government benefits.

This sounds like great news unless I'm missing something?

 

[BigBucnNole]

I think you're really hitting the nail on the head with the credit score shit.

At some point all those folks are going to have made their move right? You're saying before 2022?

I would give it a full year from now. By beginning of 3rd quarter 2022. It's just my guess at this point. We'll first start seeing a slow down in permitting data and housing starts before then. That should be the big indicator.

I just pulled some housing start data:

(In thousands of units)

2020	2021	2022	2023
168.1	182.0	171.5	155.9

These are new houses physically built in Florida. This is what the state government is projecting for their property tax revenue forecasts going forward. 168.1 thousand homes started construction last year. This the flow variable into housing stock and typically the housing starts in a normal growth pattern fluctuate between 150k and 155k. They think 2023 is the normalization period. I think 2022 is a little optimistic, but once this variable slows down, the market should cool.

 

[BigBucnNole]

This sounds like great news unless I'm missing something?

It is. Some folks in positions of power have whispered things about adjusting benefits, but the political will isn't there. So far anyway.

In Florida the big guys already pay close to that amount as well. Smaller guys that have to bear the cost the hardest, have several years before the new minimum wages go in effect here.

 

[CDDP]

Am I reading that correctly that the average household is holding 80k in total assets?

Is this including 401s?

It's 36 trillion over 79 trillion. Total assets is 79 trillion with 36 trillion or 45.7% of household assets in stocks, minus any pension fund entitlements. It's at an all time high. Really impressive percentage because it's not like housing has been in the dump either.

 

[America 1st]

It's 36 trillion over 79 trillion. Total assets is 79 trillion with 36 trillion or 45.7% of household assets in stocks, minus any pension fund entitlements. It's at an all time high. Really impressive percentage because it's not like housing has been in the dump either.

Clearly my eyes suck. Glad I asked.

Does that include properties with mortgages held against them?

The Reagan years blow my mind continually.