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Stock Market Meltdown Megathread

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Trying to put personal bias aside I think that at this point it’s more likely we hit new highs by year’s end than get a recession. I’m not necessarily saying I think that it’s much more likely or that I personally think that will happen but looking at all the indicators things are looking pretty good.

I’d say it’s also more likely that no recession happens at all compared to there being a recession in 2024.

The Fed has done their job wonderfully. They threaded the needle and now we are finally having people wake up to the fact that the inflation target should have been 3% all along.

The market should add breadth from here unless we get a black swan event.

Personally, I’m curious to see how T does over these next couple of quarters. I’d also be curious to know when the EPA is going to come out with a ruling on the lead sheathed cables.
 
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U.S. stock indexes were trading higher on Wednesday after the latest consumer-price index data showed price pressures picked up in August but still eased at a gradual pace, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged at its September policy meeting.

 

hmt5000

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Inflation ticking back up. 3 months in a row of higher inflation. Who would of thought that spending tons of printed money would cause inflation even with higher rates? I'm shocked. Are you guys shocked?
 
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Inflation ticking back up. 3 months in a row of higher inflation. Who would have thought that spending tons of printed money would cause inflation even with higher rates? I'm shocked. Are you guys shocked?
Your troll attempts are awful.

Inflation is easing and what we experienced was a result of COVID supply shortages and reshoring.
 
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July 20230.23.2
June 20230.23.0



And August is coming in at 3.7. 3 to 3.2 to 3.7... Its called a trend you small dicked idiot.


You really should try to educate yourself so that you stop making an ass out of yourself all the time.

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.3% in August 2023, the lowest since September 2021, from 4.7% in the prior month, matching market expectations. Prices slowed down for shelter (7.3% vs 7.7% in July), recreation (3.5% vs 4.1%), apparel (3.1% vs 3.2%) and new vehicles (2.9% vs 3.5%). Moreover, decreases were seen for used cars and trucks (-6.6% vs -5.6%) and medical care services (-2.1% vs -1.5%).​



“Two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” said Powell.


PCE Inflation Slows to 3% as Expected
The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased 3% year-on-year in June 2023, the lowest reading since March 2021, in line with market forecasts. Prices for goods decreased 0.6% while for services increased 4.9%. Food cost rose 4.6% and energy sank 18.9%. Compared to the previous month, PCE prices were up 0.2%, after a 0.1% rise in May and matching expectations. Meanwhile, annual core PCE inflation fell to 4.1%, the lowest since September 2021, better than forecasts of 4.2% while the monthly rate eased to 0.2% from 0.3% as expected.

 
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Core Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Core Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2024 and 2.60 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.​



 

MalO

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Core Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Core Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2024 and 2.60 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.​




That's not good news. They still can't get it down to 2%

For the record, 2% is shit and still too high. A stable economy has 0 inflation.

You do realize that inflation is cumulative? Getting it back down to 2% isn't good enough. All the damage that the higher inflation has caused won't be repaired unless they deflate the economy for a year. We hit double-digit inflation so we need double-digit deflation to balance it out and get the economy back where it was.

Getting it back down to 2% and whistling a tune acting like nothing happened is bullshit. That's just theft. The Fed stole money from all our wallets and savings accounts by weakening the dollar and they need to give it back.
 

MalO

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To understand what is happening, we need to recall that in addition to being a media star as the manipulator of the world’s dominant currency, the Federal Reserve is a bank—well, actually 12 Federal Reserve Banks (FRBs), covering districts across the United States. Added together they are huge, with total assets of $8.3 trillion (with a T). The FRBs have loans, investments, deposits and borrowings, interest income and interest expense, and profit or loss like other banks do. They also have private shareholders: the commercial banks which are “Fed member banks,” and the FRBs have over them the Washington Federal Reserve Board, which charges them for its expenses.

The combined FRBs are intended to always be profitable because of their unique monopoly in issuing U.S. dollar paper currency. This is a very lucrative privilege which means together they have $2.3 trillion of zero interest cost funding from the dollar bills circulating around the country and the world, which they can invest in interest earning assets. (They print up some money and use it to buy Treasury bonds, simply said.) But instead of making profits, as the combined Fed reliably did for more than 100 years, it is now making giant losses, a historic reversal.

The CQFR shows that in the first six months of 2023 the combined Fed had $88 billion in interest income, but $141 billion in interest expense. So it paid out in interest $53 billion more than it received, and also had to pay its overhead expenses of over $4 billion.

Why doesn’t it have more interest income? Because the Fed engaged to the tune of about $5 trillion in one of the most classic of financial risks: borrowing short and lending long, and now interest rates have gone very far against it and the risk has turned into real losses.

The CQFR shows on page 22 that on June 30 the combined Fed owned $5.5 trillion in Treasury Securities with an average yield of 1.96%, and $2.6 trillion of mortgage-backed securities yielding on average 2.20%. In short, it invested in massive amounts of very long-term fixed rate assets and locked in for years a historically low yield of about 2%. Meanwhile, it was funding $5 trillion of these assets with floating rate deposits from banks and borrowings in the form of repurchase agreements, the cost of which rose to over 5%.

You don’t need a degree in banking or a Ph.D. in economics to know that lending money at 2% while you are borrowing money at 5% is a losing proposition. That is what our Federal Reserve Banks did and continue to do.
 

hmt5000

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You really should try to educate yourself so that you stop making an ass out of yourself all the time.

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.3% in August 2023, the lowest since September 2021, from 4.7% in the prior month, matching market expectations. Prices slowed down for shelter (7.3% vs 7.7% in July), recreation (3.5% vs 4.1%), apparel (3.1% vs 3.2%) and new vehicles (2.9% vs 3.5%). Moreover, decreases were seen for used cars and trucks (-6.6% vs -5.6%) and medical care services (-2.1% vs -1.5%).​



“Two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” said Powell.


PCE Inflation Slows to 3% as Expected
The personal consumption expenditure price index in the United States increased 3% year-on-year in June 2023, the lowest reading since March 2021, in line with market forecasts. Prices for goods decreased 0.6% while for services increased 4.9%. Food cost rose 4.6% and energy sank 18.9%. Compared to the previous month, PCE prices were up 0.2%, after a 0.1% rise in May and matching expectations. Meanwhile, annual core PCE inflation fell to 4.1%, the lowest since September 2021, better than forecasts of 4.2% while the monthly rate eased to 0.2% from 0.3% as expected.

Your numbers look worse for your argument then the ones I had. Your economic takes are suprisisngly worse than your takes on global war.
 

MalO

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You can have your infinite money
With all the consequences that infinite money causes an economy

God I wish our leaders weren't inbred stupid fucks

I'm smarter than a stone age hick who lives in Venezuela. Why isn't anyone in the Fed?

The problem with our culture is it values social skills (which are inherently worthless) over technical skills (which are the only skills that have value)

I work in IT and have to work hard every day all the while my useless bosses who just talk all day long get paid six-figure incomes. Meanwhile I get paid in circus peanuts.

Yet when anything needs to get fixed, I'm the one that fixes it. Then they go back to talking.

Fuck social manipulators. They are parasites and the doom of civlization.

I hope God sends them all to the deepest pits of Hell.
 
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That's not good news. They still can't get it down to 2%

For the record, 2% is shit and still too high. A stable economy has 0 inflation.

You do realize that inflation is cumulative? Getting it back down to 2% isn't good enough. All the damage that the higher inflation has caused won't be repaired unless they deflate the economy for a year. We hit double-digit inflation so we need double-digit deflation to balance it out and get the economy back where it was.

Getting it back down to 2% and whistling a tune acting like nothing happened is bullshit. That's just theft. The Fed stole money from all our wallets and savings accounts by weakening the dollar and they need to give it back.
🤣

Literally everything about your post is false.

If you want to have a debate about whether the target should be 2% or 3% then that’s one thing (although it should obviously be at least 3%) but the rest of that reads like you believe that men can have babies.
 
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Your numbers look worse for your argument then the ones I had. Your economic takes are suprisisngly worse than your takes on global war.
I’m shocked that after I showed how your position is objectively false that your retort touches on another topic where you’ve been shown to be completely backwards from reality.

JK you’re a repeat offender when it comes to moronic hot takes. Carry on acting like you know more about inflation than the Chairman of The Federal Reserve! 😂
 

hmt5000

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I’m shocked that after I showed how your position is objectively false that your retort touches on another topic where you’ve been shown to be completely backwards from reality.

JK you’re a repeat offender when it comes to moronic hot takes. Carry on acting like you know more about inflation than the Chairman of The Federal Reserve! 😂
The Chairman is raising rates to lower inflation and inflation has gone up 3 months in a row in spite of that raising rates. People thought he'd stop raising rates at the next meeting but this uptick will force him to raise rates again. Bidenomics is going to kill the middle class of the country.
 
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The Chairman is raising rates to lower inflation and inflation has gone up 3 months in a row in spite of that raising rates. People thought he'd stop raising rates at the next meeting but this uptick will force him to raise rates again. Bidenomics is going to kill the middle class of the country.
No he isn’t going to raise rates this next meeting and no inflation hasn’t “gone up” these past three months. As I’ve shown it’s continued down just as expected.

Bidenomics has nothing to do with the current inflation rate or past inflation rates. The current, and past, inflation rates are a direct result of shifting supply chains and deglobalization. We know government spending has nothing to do with those inflation rates because the government has continued to spend at the same rate and inflation rates have dropped significantly.

Bidenomics (national capitalism) is the sort of private sector industrial policy this country has been missing since WW2. It worked wonders then and it’s working wonders now as we are looking at 5% GDP growth this quarter in spite of the interest rates. Bidenomics has also accelerated reshoring, increased oil and gas supplies, and created 50 year lows in unemployment. Bidenomics is diversifying our energy consumption as well which is a huge win for the military if they need priority for petroleum products because a hot war breaks out.

The only downside to Bidenomics is that it didn’t start 50 years ago before boomers could sell out America’s middle class.

Biden, or his handlers in reality, have brought this country onto a war footing. It’s been long overdue and it’s exactly what putting America first means.
 
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hmt5000

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No he isn’t going to raise rates this next meeting and no inflation hasn’t “gone up” these past three months. As I’ve shown it’s continued down just as expected.

Bidenomics has nothing to do with the current inflation rate or past inflation rates. The current, and past, inflation rates are a direct result of shifting supply chains and deglobalization. We know government spending has nothing to do with those inflation rates because the government has continued to spend at the same rate and inflation rates have dropped significantly.

Bidenomics (national capitalism) is the sort of private sector industrial policy this country has been missing since WW2. It worked wonders then and it’s working wonders now as we are looking at 5% GDP growth this quarter in spite of the interest rates. Bidenomics has also accelerated reshoring, increased oil and gas supplies, and created 50 year lows in unemployment. Bidenomics is diversifying our energy consumption as well which is a huge win for the military if they need priority for petroleum products because a hot war breaks out.

The only downside to Bidenomics is that it didn’t start 50 years ago before boomers could sell out America’s middle class.
Look retard. I can't teach you everything. Inflation numbers were released today that have Aug at 3.7%. It was 3% in June and 3.2% in July. You can say it went down but the numbers don't say that. Quit being so retarded/
 
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Look retard. I can't teach you everything. Inflation numbers were released today that have Aug at 3.7%. It was 3% in June and 3.2% in July. You can say it went down but the numbers don't say that. Quit being so retarded/
Cherry picked data points from a less than ideal method of measuring inflation doesn’t mean inflation when up.

The Fed’s preferred method shows it went down. The annualized data from your method shows it went down faster in August than it had been in July.

You should learn #s because just like with your hot takes on Russia’s war of aggression the #s don’t mean what you’re saying the mean. Hilariously, in most cases they mean the opposite of what you’re claiming just like when you said China was going to dump US bonds while their state owned real estate companies failed to make their debt payments because they had insufficient dollars.
 

ChicagoFats

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That's not good news. They still can't get it down to 2%

For the record, 2% is shit and still too high. A stable economy has 0 inflation.

You do realize that inflation is cumulative? Getting it back down to 2% isn't good enough. All the damage that the higher inflation has caused won't be repaired unless they deflate the economy for a year. We hit double-digit inflation so we need double-digit deflation to balance it out and get the economy back where it was.

Getting it back down to 2% and whistling a tune acting like nothing happened is bullshit. That's just theft. The Fed stole money from all our wallets and savings accounts by weakening the dollar and they need to give it back.
100% agree.

Inflation is theft
 
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100% agree.

Inflation is theft
Explain how the increase in prices of goods and services is theft. Do you not believe that private businesses should be able to dictate their prices (without price gauging)?


“Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time“
 

MalO

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Explain how the increase in prices of goods and services is theft. Do you not believe that private businesses should be able to dictate their prices (without price gauging)?


“Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time“

You get paid $100 in the year 2009 you can afford 100 cheeseburgers on the dollar menu at McDonalds

You get paid $100 in the year 2023 you can afford 35 cheeseburgers at McDonalds and they no longer have a dollar menu

"but wages increased" you say

No they didn't. The minimum wage has been stagnant since 2009. Wages have not increased at all.

Every time the Fed prints a dollar - they have a dollar to spend. They have given themselves a free dollar. The value of that dollar came to them by devaluing all the other dollars in circulation. They stole the value of that dollar from everyone else who has dollars.

The Fed gives itself spending power by taking spending power from us.

Inflation is theft
 

hmt5000

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Cherry picked data points from a less than ideal method of measuring inflation doesn’t mean inflation when up.

The Fed’s preferred method shows it went down. The annualized data from your method shows it went down faster in August than it had been in July.

You should learn #s because just like with your hot takes on Russia’s war of aggression the #s don’t mean what you’re saying the mean. Hilariously, in most cases they mean the opposite of what you’re claiming just like when you said China was going to dump US bonds while their state owned real estate companies failed to make their debt payments because they had insufficient dollars.
Their preffered method. LOL. Well I bet they have our best interest in mind for that. You fucking retarded dick licking faggot. I'd make fun of your clothes but you're too got damn stupid to get it. This economy is trash. It's going backwards on every single measure for people that aren't super wealthy. Credit Card debt is way up. Income increases are below inflation. Europe and the rest of the world are saying they are looking at a recession. We took a bad situation with Covid and have absolutely shoved a shotgun to our forehead and pulled the trigger with Biden in office. He is still draining the SPR and is still closing down oil permits and pipelines (not just in the Med).

Biden is being led by people who hate free market capitalism. We are fooked until they are shown the boot. You go on about commies in Russia but your broke ass is propping up commies in own country. Read a fucking history book. Commies release prisoners and arrest law abiding citizens to force people into their homes looking for a safety which the big brother provides. We are half way there asshole.
 
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You get paid $100 in the year 2009 you can afford 100 cheeseburgers on the dollar menu at McDonalds

You get paid $100 in the year 2023 you can afford 35 cheeseburgers at McDonalds and they no longer have a dollar menu

"but wages increased" you say

No they didn't. The minimum wage has been stagnant since 2009. Wages have not increased at all.

Every time the Fed prints a dollar - they have a dollar to spend. They have given themselves a free dollar. The value of that dollar came to them by devaluing all the other dollars in circulation. They stole the value of that dollar from everyone else who has dollars.

The Fed gives itself spending power by taking spending power from us.

Inflation is theft
No 😂

The cost of a cheeseburger went up because there is more demand for cheeseburgers which allows MCD to raise the price since they control the supply.

“Printing” money, which I’m guessing is your colloquial term for the amount of dollars in circulation, isn’t the same thing.

For example, right now the M2 supply (currency in circulation) is contracting rapidly while Congress is still spending more money via deficits.

Inflation is a private sector phenomenon that is a beneficial tool under most circumstances.

If you want to be taken seriously on this topic you should start by no longer using the term “printing money”.
 

hmt5000

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Explain how the increase in prices of goods and services is theft. Do you not believe that private businesses should be able to dictate their prices (without price gauging)?


“Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time“
Inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods. If you give 20 million people $1million do you think you might see inflation in certain products that idiots would blow their money on?

Inflation is a tax because if I can buy lunch for $1 today but you print $100 this week and now my lunch cost $2... you taxed 50% of my money just to print that $100. This was known economics before the Keynesians got popular.
 

9Mounties07

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Cherry picked data points from a less than ideal method of measuring inflation doesn’t mean inflation when up.

The Fed’s preferred method shows it went down. The annualized data from your method shows it went down faster in August than it had been in July.

You should learn #s because just like with your hot takes on Russia’s war of aggression the #s don’t mean what you’re saying the mean. Hilariously, in most cases they mean the opposite of what you’re claiming just like when you said China was going to dump US bonds while their state owned real estate companies failed to make their debt payments because they had insufficient dollars.
Fk Ukraine
 
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Their preffered method. LOL. Well I bet they have our best interest in mind for that. You fucking retarded dick licking faggot. I'd make fun of your clothes but you're too got damn stupid to get it. This economy is trash. It's going backwards on every single measure for people that aren't super wealthy. Credit Card debt is way up. Income increases are below inflation. Europe and the rest of the world are saying they are looking at a recession. We took a bad situation with Covid and have absolutely shoved a shotgun to our forehead and pulled the trigger with Biden in office. He is still draining the SPR and is still closing down oil permits and pipelines (not just in the Med).

Biden is being led by people who hate free market capitalism. We are fooked until they are shown the boot. You go on about commies in Russia but your broke ass is propping up commies in own country. Read a fucking history book. Commies release prisoners and arrest law abiding citizens to force people into their homes looking for a safety which the big brother provides. We are half way there asshole.
The Fed has done a pretty good job over the past 120 years given that they have helped create the most prosperous and powerful country in history.

You live in such a backwards reality that you’re crying about communism in America while describing authoritarianism. You don’t know up from down or left from right.

You might even be able to convince some people you care about freedom and criminality if you weren’t cheering on a communist dictator who is currently invading another country for the purposes of genocide.

Communism is the complete state control over the means and manner of production with private property being illegal. That is the exact opposite of what we have here in America.
 
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Inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods. If you give 20 million people $1million do you think you might see inflation in certain products that idiots would blow their money on?

Inflation is a tax because if I can buy lunch for $1 today but you print $100 this week and now my lunch cost $2... you taxed 50% of my money just to print that $100. This was known economics before the Keynesians got popular.
You’re conflating a business choosing to raise its prices with government activity.

The government didn’t make you spend that money or force that business to raise their prices.

Stop blaming government for your lack of support for capitalism.
 
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If inflation was “too much currency chasing too few goods” then China would be experiencing hyperinflation right now instead of deflation especially considering they actively devalue their currency and their debt burden compared to The US.

Furthermore, inflation doesn’t mean that a currency is devaluing. Since COVID the dollar has gained value even while The US experienced above average inflation.

 
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"Today's economic data confirms the path toward a soft landing, but without being so hot that the Fed thinks they might need to do a couple more rate hikes," said Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategy Analyst at Baird. "All together, it's pretty bullish."

 

hmt5000

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If inflation was “too much currency chasing too few goods” then China would be experiencing hyperinflation right now instead of deflation especially considering they actively devalue their currency and their debt burden compared to The US.

Furthermore, inflation doesn’t mean that a currency is devaluing. Since COVID the dollar has gained value even while The US experienced above average inflation.

That's because they don't have "too few goods". I know you're very simple but you need to read whole sentences. China devalues their currency but also makes tons of shit to flood their market and they have massive controls on their economy. They will pay soon for those choices but don't pretend we are doing the same thing and getting different results.
 
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That's because they don't have "too few goods". I know you're very simple but you need to read whole sentences. China devalues their currency but also makes tons of shit to flood their market and they have massive controls on their economy. They will pay soon for those choices but don't pretend we are doing the same thing and getting different results.
You’re retarded and stated my point for me. China’s debt to GDP ratio disproves the notion that “money printing” causes inflation. The same goes with their devaluing currency not causing inflation.

It’s not like The US isn’t out producing China with goods and services. We have a higher GDP with less debt. Inflation is driven by private companies because of mismatches in supply and demand. “Money printing” is not a problem for The US.
 

hmt5000

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You’re retarded and stated my point for me. China’s debt to GDP ratio disproves the notion that “money printing” causes inflation. The same goes with their devaluing currency not causing inflation.

It’s not like The US isn’t out producing China with goods and services. We have a higher GDP with less debt. Inflation is driven by private companies because of mismatches in supply and demand. “Money printing” is not a problem for The US.
You are litter ali arguing with all of human history of economics. Jesus H Christ. You fucking Keynesian piece of shit. Just move to Venezuela and start smoking non filter cigarettes you 3 fingered bitch. Increasing money supply has caused inflation since people have kept history books.
 
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You are litter ali arguing with all of human history of economics. Jesus H Christ. You fucking Keynesian piece of shit. Just move to Venezuela and start smoking non filter cigarettes you 3 fingered bitch. Increasing money supply has caused inflation since people have kept history books.
Nobody is saying “money printing” can’t cause it just that The US isn’t experiencing that with this recent wave of inflation you tard.
 

ChicagoFats

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Core Inflation Rate in the United States is expected to be 4.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Core Inflation Rate is projected to trend around 2.70 percent in 2024 and 2.60 percent in 2025, according to our econometric models.​



Their model sucks cuz it has been way wrong. Probably the same model they use for climate change.
 
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Their model sucks cuz it has been way wrong. Probably the same model they use for climate change.
It’s data and The Fed’s reaction to it has been spot on.

There is no debating The Fed has threaded the needle during this cycle. We are get 5% GDP growth this quarter and inflation on a glide path towards 2%.

Just like under Reagan and Volcker this CiC and Powell are putting on masterpiece in administration.



“real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 4.9 percenton September 14, down from 5.6 percent on September 8. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 4.0 percent, 11.7 percent, and 2.3 percent, respectively, to 3.5 percent, 10.6 percent, and 1.9 percent.“

 
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