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Stock Market Meltdown Megathread

MalO

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I like this one.

Assets sold but not yet purchased. They don’t have to count their unrealized losses against revenue so they can show a profit while being buried in losses.

 

MalO

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I remember back in early 2022 there were shills on WallStreetBets posting about how there is no such thing as "you don't lose if you don't sell" and said unrealized losses are losses.

Like many others, my response was basically this:


Our favorite holding period is forever.​


Unrealized losses are not losses. Even Wall Street operates on this principle.

However I don't pay anything to hold stock, and Citadel has to pay a borrowing fee every time they roll over thier shorts.

There haven't been many FTD's because Citadel isn't. They buy to close, then short the stock again at the same price. They get thier money back, minus the borrowing fee.

They think they can suffer the slow burn long enough for people like me to get bored and walk away. Except that's not going to work. I DRS more every month.
 

hmt5000

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Its like with Disney stock. Their financials look like dogshit and they are missing all their projections and the stock is just staying in $90 range. How the hell does a stock not drop like a rock when they are facing their worst year in 2 decades?
 

ChicagoFats

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Its like with Disney stock. Their financials look like dogshit and they are missing all their projections and the stock is just staying in $90 range. How the hell does a stock not drop like a rock when they are facing their worst year in 2 decades?


Most likely because that was priced in previously. The stock is at 5 year lows so it has indeed dropped like a rock.

I forgot how to post the chart, but look at the 5 year chart and then compare that to the SnP 500.
 

hmt5000

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Most likely because that was priced in previously. The stock is at 5 year lows so it has indeed dropped like a rock.

I forgot how to post the chart, but look at the 5 year chart and then compare that to the SnP 500.
I know but I'm saying that since the last 2 quarters things have gotten wayyyyy worse and the stock only dropped slightly and then rebounded when Iger came back like there wasn't fundamental problems with the co that simply changing ceo wasn't going to fix in a 4 year time frame.

My point with that is that there are tons of co's that pe ratios are getting really wonky compared to historical norms. It feels like so much money is being automatically invested in the market that the price of bad to mediocre stocks are being propped up artificially.
 

ChicagoFats

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I know but I'm saying that since the last 2 quarters things have gotten wayyyyy worse and the stock only dropped slightly and then rebounded when Iger came back like there wasn't fundamental problems with the co that simply changing ceo wasn't going to fix in a 4 year time frame.

My point with that is that there are tons of co's that pe ratios are getting really wonky compared to historical norms. It feels like so much money is being automatically invested in the market that the price of bad to mediocre stocks are being propped up artificially.


Can’t disagree with you there.
 

shiv

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Most likely because that was priced in previously. The stock is at 5 year lows so it has indeed dropped like a rock.

I forgot how to post the chart, but look at the 5 year chart and then compare that to the SnP 500.
You can just copy and paste the link from tradingview

 

Timothy

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Call me crazy, but I bot shares of Dollar General last week. Not as exciting to watch as TSLA, but it should be a solid return
 

MalO

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It begins.


(Reuters) - Moody's cut credit ratings of several small to mid-sized U.S. banks on Monday and said it may downgrade some of the nation's biggest lenders, warning that the sector's credit strength will likely be tested by funding risks and weaker profitability.

Moody's cut the ratings of 10 banks by one notch and placed six banking giants, including Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street and Truist Financial on review for potential downgrades.

"Many banks' second-quarter results showed growing profitability pressures that will reduce their ability to generate internal capital," Moody's said in a note.

"This comes as a mild U.S. recession is on the horizon for early 2024 and asset quality looks set to decline, with particular risks in some banks’ commercial real estate (CRE)portfolios."

Moody's said elevated CRE exposures are a key risk due to high interest rates, declines in office demand as a result of remote work, and a reduction in the availability of CRE credit.

The agency also changed its outlook to negative for eleven major lenders, including Capital One, Citizens Financial and Fifth Third Bancorp.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year sparked a crisis of confidence in the U.S. banking sector, leading to a run on deposits at a host of regional banks despite authorities launching emergency measures to shore up confidence.

Still, Moody's cautioned that banks with sizable unrealized losses that are not reflected in their regulatory capital ratios are vulnerable to a loss of confidence in the current high-rate environment.
 

MalO

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The Fed has abandoned the idea of a soft landing. They are going to restart QE because they can't afford interest payments on debt when the interest rates are this high.

With interest rates already at historic lows, this is the end of the debt spiral. The next recession will be the end of the dollar.

 

hmt5000

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The Fed has abandoned the idea of a soft landing. They are going to restart QE because they can't afford interest payments on debt when the interest rates are this high.

With interest rates already at historic lows, this is the end of the debt spiral. The next recession will be the end of the dollar.


That's what Schiff is saying. They raised rates this much to only get to 3.2% inflation. He says they've made the decision that getting to 2% would be more painful than just QE inflation going back up.
 

hmt5000

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Michael Burry just put in some huge shorts. He's been short a ton of stuff this year but he's been saying a wider crash is coming...
 

BigBucnNole

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The Fed has abandoned the idea of a soft landing. They are going to restart QE because they can't afford interest payments on debt when the interest rates are this high.

With interest rates already at historic lows, this is the end of the debt spiral. The next recession will be the end of the dollar.



Why are you like you are? Prison time? Broken family? Abusive father?
 

MalO

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Why are you like you are? Prison time? Broken family? Abusive father?
To properly answer your question:

lol. lmao.


A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase.
The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.

But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.
“If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.
The credit rating firms relied upon by bond investors have roiled markets lately with their actions. Last week, Moody’s downgraded 10 small and midsized banks and warned that cuts could come for another 17 lenders, including larger institutions like Truist and U.S. Bank. Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded the U.S. long-term credit rating because of political dysfunction and growing debt loads, a move that was derided by business leaders including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

 

hmt5000

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To properly answer your question:

lol. lmao.





I love how he acts like we are crazy because we see what tons of people are seeing. He thinks the computers will solve any hiccups and the economy will just keep going no matter what anyone does to hurt or economy or monetary value. We can spend to enternity. We can just import everything we need and produce very little. We can fight wars around the world with no repercussions. We can remove leaders of other governments and nobody will ever do anything about it or change their policies.

He has normalcy bias so bad that he can't even imagine we might be heading for a recession let alone a really bad one.
 

MalO

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I would totally invest in this. I bet it has better returns than anything the DTCC runs.

 

MalO

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The dumpster fire is starting to hit the MSM.

It's interesting that the stock market hasn't crashed yet, but it really should have given the size of the collapse that's starting to happen. All the banks listed in the article are little banks. The truth is even the big banks are long overdue for bankruptcy. The elite have been kicking the can with debt manipulation but how long is that going to work?

Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bank of America are all zombie banks. They don't have enough cash on hand to cover deposits and in fact they have more debt than assets. They're dead. Dead as a doornail. But they stay in business anyway.

Same for the stock market. Prices keep going up, but this market is dead. Any growth we see is a zombie shambling forward looking for brains to eat.

The collapse has started. Apparently the elite want to go out kicking and screaming, so it's not going to resolve quickly. We will probably see a slow trickle of bank collapses for years.

 

MalO

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I love how the propaganda just quietly transitioned from

"everything is fine"
"the economy is strong"
"our banks are doing fine"
"this is not a recession"

to

"how to survive bank closures"

It's like, WTF. If you were an ignorant pleb who just watches the news you would be a little gobsmacked by this wouldn't you?
 

MalO

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You saw it here first.


Citadel has a large stake in Vidya card stock
We always knew it was in a bubble, but it's nice seeing the finer details
They're probably all shorting it. The stock will get decimated once China finally does something with Taiwan, even if it's just a blockade. China needs a war anyway to distract from their crumbling economy.
Give Coreweave $2.5 billion in loans, secured by chips that rapidly lose their value, and offload that dogshit on someone else. Short the stock, wait for China to disrupt Taiwan's chip exports, then cash-in. Doesn't matter if this nobody Coreweave defaults on the loan. That'll be someone else's problem.
 

MalO

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Gamestop earnings call today. Net loss is down 97% compared to Q2 last year.





I'm so glad I'm not short on Gamestop. Ken Griffin better pay up. He owes me all of his money.
 

MalO

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The short thesis is dead. There is no outcome where Gamestop goes bankrupt. The shorts must close.

This isn't even a holiday season. It's boring as hell Q2.

With 1.3 billion dollars cash on hand, how long can Gamestop continue without going into debt?

464 quarters
116 years

I think RC can manage to earn some profit before then.
 

hmt5000

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Bit of news on Disney. They have moved up their deal with Comcast to buy the rest of Hulu. It was to happen in '24 but they are going to do it by Sep 30th.

Valuation was saying they were looking at $17 billion to $20 billion for that 30%. Several big investors are saying they think it's going to be much lower. Disney wants it to be $9 billiion and experts are now saying that it will be between the $9B and $15B.

This is good news for Disney on this issue but it shows that reality is sinking in on streaming. Several entertainment stocks dropped on this news.

I'm still saying $70 on Disney by Feb. They are still bleeding cash and anything over $10B is going to hurt the stock.
 

ChicagoFats

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Bit of news on Disney. They have moved up their deal with Comcast to buy the rest of Hulu. It was to happen in '24 but they are going to do it by Sep 30th.

Valuation was saying they were looking at $17 billion to $20 billion for that 30%. Several big investors are saying they think it's going to be much lower. Disney wants it to be $9 billiion and experts are now saying that it will be between the $9B and $15B.

This is good news for Disney on this issue but it shows that reality is sinking in on streaming. Several entertainment stocks dropped on this news.

I'm still saying $70 on Disney by Feb. They are still bleeding cash and anything over $10B is going to hurt the stock.

Don't see any positives for Disney right now. Iger may get it turned around but they still have a long way to go.
 

ChicagoFats

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Bit of news on Disney. They have moved up their deal with Comcast to buy the rest of Hulu. It was to happen in '24 but they are going to do it by Sep 30th.

Valuation was saying they were looking at $17 billion to $20 billion for that 30%. Several big investors are saying they think it's going to be much lower. Disney wants it to be $9 billiion and experts are now saying that it will be between the $9B and $15B.

This is good news for Disney on this issue but it shows that reality is sinking in on streaming. Several entertainment stocks dropped on this news.

I'm still saying $70 on Disney by Feb. They are still bleeding cash and anything over $10B is going to hurt the stock.

How has GME reinvinted itself? Most games are sold online direct to consumer now so what has GME done to get traffic into their stores? Not a buyer of the stock. The stock is just a hedge fund playground.
 

MalO

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How has GME reinvinted itself? Most games are sold online direct to consumer now so what has GME done to get traffic into their stores? Not a buyer of the stock. The stock is just a hedge fund playground.
Ryan Cohen has been doing two things to turn the company around

1. cost cutting - to reduce the losses. Losses are already approaching 0
2. Launch a digital storefront to transition to digital games. This is Gamestop PLAYR


Web3 is the next generation of the world wide web, and PLAYR will be the first web3 game storefront. This is like what Valve did with Steam back in 2003, which was built on web2 which came into existence around the year 2000 and the "dotcom boom".
 
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