Stock market 📈 or 📉

[shiv]

Has the correction already happened or are we headed for bear territory? What do you think and why?

My gut tells me the market has corrected and is going to be bouncing back. Even if it gets worse from here, I still would think it’s a good time to grab some SP500, but keep some cash on the side

 

[tiderollsonu]

I am betting on a free fall, moved my 401k into a conservative investing model a few months ago.

 

[shiv]

I am betting on a free fall, moved my 401k into a conservative investing model a few months ago.

Good call. How conservative are you? I’m 100% stonks in my 401k accounts and am staying that way through think and thin.

I sold all my energy stocks in my Roth on Friday. I did half of them (energy) a month ago and bought nasdaq. Hasn’t played out too well. I’m still actually about broke even on that though because I bought a decent dip

 

[shiv]

But I do see how we could have another bloodbath this week

 

[tiderollsonu]

Good call. How conservative are you? I’m 100% stonks in my 401k accounts and am staying that way through think and thin.

I sold all my energy stocks in my Roth on Friday. I did half of them (energy) a month ago and bought nasdaq. Hasn’t played out too well. I’m still actually about broke even on that though because I bought a decent dip

Ours just had options for conservative, moderately conservative something else and aggressive or something. These are not things I pretend to understand.

 

[shiv]

Ours just had options for conservative, moderately conservative something else and aggressive or something. These are not things I pretend to understand.

It’s good to be honest. Either way, good play for you. Now the trick is knowing when to go back aggressive

 

[AgEngDawg]

100% in 3 Vanguard Index Fund in my 401K. That is how I ride come rain or shine.

 

[shiv]

100% in 3 Vanguard Index Fund in my 401K. That is how I ride come rain or shine.

So what are the 3 funds?

 

[Sikness23245]

With there still being supply chain issues and inflation raging, I'd think there is still more pain to come.

 

[Rube Reaper]

With there still being supply chain issues and inflation raging, I'd think there is still more pain to come.

I hope all the capitalists suffer. Fuck capitalism and markets!

 

[Timothy]

Rube Reaper is just mad because all his $$ is in Disney

 

[Timothy]

I do know one thing about raising interest rates... it can be a market killer.

Greenspan single-handedly popped the 2000 bubble by simply raising rates.

Of course the rates are rising now for a different reason, so the effect may not be so dramatic.

I hope.

 

[AgEngDawg]

So what are the 3 funds?

Vanguard Institutional Index Instl PI
Vanguard Mid Cap Index Instl
Vanguard Small Cap Index Instl

 

[Sloppy Mexican]

I’m betting on a massive dump. I’ve got a pile of SQQQ that is currently way up and I’m holding onto that shit with my life.

 

[SmokeHouse423]

I’m betting on a massive dump. I’ve got a pile of SQQQ that is currently way up and I’m holding onto that shit with my life.

That is shorting the tech stocks correct?

 

[Sloppy Mexican]

That is shorting the tech stocks correct?

NASDAQ

 

[ChicagoFats]

Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

 

[shiv]

I do know one thing about raising interest rates... it can be a market killer.

Greenspan single-handedly popped the 2000 bubble by simply raising rates.

Of course the rates are rising now for a different reason, so the effect may not be so dramatic.

I hope.

Rates have been very sneaky rising in the background. We are gonna be 4% by the end of the year

 

[shiv]

Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

I’m with you. The bubble doesn’t pop when everyone thinks it’s going to pop. Never has. Corporations did a shitload to cut overhead the last few years. We’ve had a strong correction in the tech sector. Think we are going to go on a run

Trust me, I run an Internet forum (but I do think this)

 

[Rebarcock.]

Rates have been very sneaky rising in the background. We are gonna be 4% by the end of the year

I'd think it could go up to 5.5 if markets stay hot.
We doubled our credit line which is scary. If it all goes to shit id be homeless again. Ot is why I won't get rid of my camper from the fire days

 

[ChicagoFats]

I'd think it could go up to 5.5 if markets stay hot.
We doubled our credit line which is scary. If it all goes to shit id be homeless again. Ot is why I won't get rid of my camper from the fire days

If you go to get a mortgage now, a 30 yr fixed is going to be close to 5.5-6%.

 

[Rebarcock.]

If you go to get a mortgage now, a 30 yr fixed is going to be close to 5.5-6%.

Agreed but they still have to pull money out of circulation. If they don't expect same ol same ol

 

[Rebarcock.]

If you go to get a mortgage now, a 30 yr fixed is going to be close to 5.5-6%.

I understand the fed rate. Our loans are prime +

 

[Rebarcock.]

Federal Reserve expected to ramp up inflation fight with super-sized rate hike

The Federal Reserve is expected to ratchet up its fight to tame red-hot inflation this week with the first double-sized rate hike in two decades, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pressure on Americans.

www.foxbusiness.com

@ChicagoFats

 

[ChicagoFats]

Federal Reserve expected to ramp up inflation fight with super-sized rate hike

The Federal Reserve is expected to ratchet up its fight to tame red-hot inflation this week with the first double-sized rate hike in two decades, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pressure on Americans.

www.foxbusiness.com

@ChicagoFats

Looking at a .50 point raise today. I think the fed funds futures are predicting something like a 99% chance of that happening. The key will of course Powells tone in the comments and questioning afterwards.

I think we may get a sell off either before or just after the release and then finish the day with a power rally. We will see.

 

[AgEngDawg]

Why does Biden hate my 401K?

 

[Timothy]

Why does Biden hate my 401K?

Because you can save money and they can't. Eventually taking your 401k will be on the table.

 

[freeADA]

Good reason to be familiar with crypto!

 

[Rebarcock.]

Because you can save money and they can't. Eventually taking your 401k will be on the table.

It was legit considered under Obama and forcing in to the SS administration

 

[ChicagoFats]

Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

I’m with you. The bubble doesn’t pop when everyone thinks it’s going to pop. Never has. Corporations did a shitload to cut overhead the last few years. We’ve had a strong correction in the tech sector. Think we are going to go on a run

Trust me, I run an Internet forum (but I do think this)

Nice call @Croot_Overlord

 

[ChicagoFats]

Looking at a .50 point raise today. I think the fed funds futures are predicting something like a 99% chance of that happening. The key will of course Powells tone in the comments and questioning afterwards.

I think we may get a sell off either before or just after the release and then finish the day with a power rally. We will see.

Its nice when you get one right

 

[Timothy]

oops, then there is today...
I wish I knew how this game is played

 

[ChicagoFats]

Its nice when you get one right

View attachment 98823

oops, then there is today...
I wish I knew how this game is played

Well, it was nice to be right for a day. Unfortunately I didn't see this big of a sell off coming. Doh

 

[ChicagoFats]

Ouch, that would be down another 25%. Definitely don't think we have capitulated to max pain yet.

 

[ChicagoFats]

I like this discussion between Kathie Wood and Elon musk regarding passive vs active investing. Not sure where I stand on the topic.

Buffet et all preach index investing and he famously won a 10 year bet for $1mm vs a hedge fund manager.

Musk suggests more of an active management style.

The thing is Buffet et all got rich by actively managing. But to the masses passive investing probably is the safer and higher probability bet. I do think the /wallstreetbets crowd and the younger generations are bigger risk takers and as a whole are more active investors than my generation was. Do they see the previous government bailouts and recognize they have a backstop? Was my generation just a bunch of pussies? Has technology allowed new products that weren't available in my generation?

 

[ChicagoFats]

Looking ugly this morning. Market down another 2% to start the day so far .... when will it stop?!?!?!?

 

[Timothy]

it's my fault. I bot NFLX at 220.

I knew better to not buy ahead of interest rate hikes, but the P/E was already down to reasonable levels a month ago. I wanted to buy the sudden dip in the hopes that it would recover quickly.

 

[ChicagoFats]

it's my fault. I bot NFLX at 220.

I knew better to not buy ahead of interest rate hikes, but the P/E was already down to reasonable levels a month ago. I wanted to buy the sudden dip in the hopes that it would recover quickly.

Also known as catching the falling knife ...

I was right there with you and bought NFLX at $220 also. Will be holding that one for a while it seems.

 

[shiv]

It’s so brutal. My choices over the last month are kickin me in the nuts

 

[ChicagoFats]

It’s so brutal. My choices over the last month are kickin me in the nuts

Meh, the price fluctuations are just noise. The only time i care about price is when i retire and am looking to cash in. I still have 15 more years minimum and i feel confident that in 15 years stock indexes will be higher than they are now.

No matter how many times you hear it, buy low sell high is hard to do.

Stay the course, invest in index funds or your favorite companies that make great products.