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shiv

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Has the correction already happened or are we headed for bear territory? What do you think and why?

My gut tells me the market has corrected and is going to be bouncing back. Even if it gets worse from here, I still would think it’s a good time to grab some SP500, but keep some cash on the side
 
tiderollsonu said:
I am betting on a free fall, moved my 401k into a conservative investing model a few months ago.
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Good call. How conservative are you? I’m 100% stonks in my 401k accounts and am staying that way through think and thin.

I sold all my energy stocks in my Roth on Friday. I did half of them (energy) a month ago and bought nasdaq. Hasn’t played out too well. I’m still actually about broke even on that though because I bought a decent dip
 
Croot_Overlord said:
Good call. How conservative are you? I’m 100% stonks in my 401k accounts and am staying that way through think and thin.

I sold all my energy stocks in my Roth on Friday. I did half of them (energy) a month ago and bought nasdaq. Hasn’t played out too well. I’m still actually about broke even on that though because I bought a decent dip
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Ours just had options for conservative, moderately conservative something else and aggressive or something. These are not things I pretend to understand.
 
I do know one thing about raising interest rates... it can be a market killer.

Greenspan single-handedly popped the 2000 bubble by simply raising rates.

Of course the rates are rising now for a different reason, so the effect may not be so dramatic.

I hope.
 
Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

🤞
 
Timothy said:
I do know one thing about raising interest rates... it can be a market killer.

Greenspan single-handedly popped the 2000 bubble by simply raising rates.

Of course the rates are rising now for a different reason, so the effect may not be so dramatic.

I hope.
Click to expand...
Rates have been very sneaky rising in the background. We are gonna be 4% by the end of the year
 
ChicagoFats said:
Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

🤞
Click to expand...
I’m with you. The bubble doesn’t pop when everyone thinks it’s going to pop. Never has. Corporations did a shitload to cut overhead the last few years. We’ve had a strong correction in the tech sector. Think we are going to go on a run

Trust me, I run an Internet forum (but I do think this)
 
Rebarcock. said:
www.foxbusiness.com

Federal Reserve expected to ramp up inflation fight with super-sized rate hike

The Federal Reserve is expected to ratchet up its fight to tame red-hot inflation this week with the first double-sized rate hike in two decades, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pressure on Americans.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com

@ChicagoFats
Click to expand...

Looking at a .50 point raise today. I think the fed funds futures are predicting something like a 99% chance of that happening. The key will of course Powells tone in the comments and questioning afterwards.

I think we may get a sell off either before or just after the release and then finish the day with a power rally. We will see.
 
ChicagoFats said:
Think we may have hit the temporary bottom today. Bought a bunch of UPRO (3x spx) and looking for an rally the rest of this week.

Fed meeting Wednesday. If they only hike .50 point like is almost certain then have some dovish statements by Powell we could see a bounce.

🤞
Click to expand...

Croot_Overlord said:
I’m with you. The bubble doesn’t pop when everyone thinks it’s going to pop. Never has. Corporations did a shitload to cut overhead the last few years. We’ve had a strong correction in the tech sector. Think we are going to go on a run

Trust me, I run an Internet forum (but I do think this)
Click to expand...


Nice call @Croot_Overlord

1651691495968.png
 
ChicagoFats said:
Looking at a .50 point raise today. I think the fed funds futures are predicting something like a 99% chance of that happening. The key will of course Powells tone in the comments and questioning afterwards.

I think we may get a sell off either before or just after the release and then finish the day with a power rally. We will see.
Click to expand...


Its nice when you get one right

1651695217020.png
 
I like this discussion between Kathie Wood and Elon musk regarding passive vs active investing. Not sure where I stand on the topic.

Buffet et all preach index investing and he famously won a 10 year bet for $1mm vs a hedge fund manager.

Musk suggests more of an active management style.

The thing is Buffet et all got rich by actively managing. But to the masses passive investing probably is the safer and higher probability bet. I do think the /wallstreetbets crowd and the younger generations are bigger risk takers and as a whole are more active investors than my generation was. Do they see the previous government bailouts and recognize they have a backstop? Was my generation just a bunch of pussies? Has technology allowed new products that weren't available in my generation?

1651869630473.png




1651869698395.png




 
Timothy said:
it's my fault. I bot NFLX at 220.

I knew better to not buy ahead of interest rate hikes, but the P/E was already down to reasonable levels a month ago. I wanted to buy the sudden dip in the hopes that it would recover quickly.
Click to expand...
Also known as catching the falling knife ...

I was right there with you and bought NFLX at $220 also. Will be holding that one for a while it seems.
 
Croot_Overlord said:
It’s so brutal. My choices over the last month are kickin me in the nuts
Click to expand...

Meh, the price fluctuations are just noise. The only time i care about price is when i retire and am looking to cash in. I still have 15 more years minimum and i feel confident that in 15 years stock indexes will be higher than they are now.

No matter how many times you hear it, buy low sell high is hard to do.

Stay the course, invest in index funds or your favorite companies that make great products.
 

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