Stock market 📈 or 📉

[quickfeet]

Ouch. When Target gets nailed 25% on an earnings miss, it is time to get nervous.

Trophy wives everywhere must have been put on a budget

 

[ChicagoFats]

Seeing some really odd pricing on risk this morning. Vix calls have seen a huge jump in price this morning signalling that the market is still headed lower (despite being down 80 points, or 2%, already). Watch out below.

 

[shiv]

Walmart and Target have been destroyed last couple days. Thoughts?

 

[Timothy]

reminds me of 2000. P&G was one of the first to get hammered. Overnight, like TGT. With hindsight, I should have taken that as a warning of more bad news to come.

It took us 2 years to recover from that drop.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Walmart and Target have been destroyed last couple days. Thoughts?

Problems at those companies do reflect bigger problems in the broader economy imo.

In their earnings call target said they are having big problems with supply chain issues and getting things that people actually want. Then when they got things in stock, they were getting in the wrong stuff. That is, people kind of rotated from stuff they were buying during covid back to stuff they were buying pre pandemic.

I think Target and wal-mart will be around for many years, they aren't going anywhere. So, long term i kind of look at it like you can pick up those companies at a discount. Short term ... i don't know what to think.

Im not a buyer of the market in general right here. Market seems to be fading any rally at all, selling into any strength. trading 3985 right here in the spx and we should re-test that 3925 area we were talking about the other day. I

Sleepy Joe doesn't really seem to have a plan to fix some of the most concerning issues like supply chain and gas prices and I think that is being reflected in the stock market.

 

[LVRebel]

Problems at those companies do reflect bigger problems in the broader economy imo.

In their earnings call target said they are having big problems with supply chain issues and getting things that people actually want. Then when they got things in stock, they were getting in the wrong stuff. That is, people kind of rotated from stuff they were buying during covid back to stuff they were buying pre pandemic.

I think Target and wal-mart will be around for many years, they aren't going anywhere. So, long term i kind of look at it like you can pick up those companies at a discount. Short term ... i don't know what to think.

Im not a buyer of the market in general right here. Market seems to be fading any rally at all, selling into any strength. trading 3985 right here in the spx and we should re-test that 3925 area we were talking about the other day. I

Sleepy Joe doesn't really seem to have a plan to fix some of the most concerning issues like supply chain and gas prices and I think that is being reflected in the stock market.

Just jumping in, but any thoughts on when things may turn around? I know timing the market is hard, and really an unknown, but to me, it feels like we still drop quite a bit before things get straightened out. With the way this administration is spending money, it seems like inflation and/or recession will come into play too.

 

[Hoppo]

Just jumping in, but any thoughts on when things may turn around? I know timing the market is hard, and really an unknown, but to me, it feels like we still drop quite a bit before things get straightened out. With the way this administration is spending money, it seems like inflation and/or recession will come into play too.

How do we even know what's real? It feels like this administration has used some creative accounting to delay bad economic news for at least a year now. I wouldn't be surprised if we've already been in a recession for awhile now. I wouldn't be surprised if the bottom is still to be found. I'm certainly no finance or macroeconomics guru, just go by what I see in my daily life. It seems like sales have dragged in so many companies the past two quarters, and seems like those sales pipelines are recovering/stabilizing at the same time. Keep in mind that the president's war on the supply side of the economy can't last forever, and he'll eventually have to surrender. Shortages can't last forever either, as if there is money to be made that is sitting on the table, eventually some smart fuckers will figure out how to navigate all the government assholes who are in the way.

 

[quickfeet]

Not a good day

 

[ChicagoFats]

Stonks starting off the day in the red and down another 1% this morning. Seems like we may have lower to go. Economy is in pretty bad shape. Inlaftion is winning and gas prices are at record levels. Good thing we have sleepy joe at the wheel to straighten things out.

 

[shiv]

Stonks starting off the day in the red and down another 1% this morning. Seems like we may have lower to go. Economy is in pretty bad shape. Inlaftion is winning and gas prices are at record levels. Good thing we have sleepy joe at the wheel to straighten things out.

You called it yesterday, but maybe it won’t be as bad today

 

[Sgfeer]

Stonks starting off the day in the red and down another 1% this morning. Seems like we may have lower to go. Economy is in pretty bad shape. Inlaftion is winning and gas prices are at record levels. Good thing we have sleepy joe at the wheel to straighten things out.

Stock Futures Signal More Declines After Rout Erases $1.5 Trillion of Market Value

It was an ugly day for stocks on Wednesday, and futures indicate the pain might continue into Thursday.

www.barrons.com

 

[MVTPatriot]

I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom. Especially as gas prices and availability really start to be an issue nationwide.

 

[ChicagoFats]

I don't think we are anywhere near the bottom. Especially as gas prices and availability really start to be an issue nationwide.

I agree with you. Think we have another 15% or so lower to go. It won't be a straight 15% drop, we will have some rallies mixed in. But probably before the end of the year SnP goes back down to the 3200 area.

 

[MVTPatriot]

I agree with you. Think we have another 15% or so lower to go. It won't be a straight 15% drop, we will have some rallies mixed in. But probably before the end of the year SnP goes back down to the 3200 area.

And the NYSE to 25K

 

[ChicagoFats]

And the NYSE to 25K

How long until people realize the gov is just manipulating stock prices? Don't fight the fed

 

[Timothy]

"Let's be careful out there"

Any stock you own with a multiple >30 could be taken down to 15 before this is over.

NFLX, FB, and GOOG are now "fairly" valued. Still a bunch out there that remain way up.

 

[ChicagoFats]

"Let's be careful out there"

Any stock you own with a multiple >30 could be taken down to 15 before this is over.

NFLX, FB, and GOOG are now "fairly" valued. Still a bunch out there that remain way up.

I think FB is overvalued. Its not cool with the young crowd and the META verse could turn out to be a big flop.

 

[Hoppo]

I think FB is overvalued. Its not cool with the young crowd and the META verse could turn out to be a big flop.

I think their value is a super long term play. Like in 20 years we’ll be wondering how a stupid social media company became such a pervasive part of society. Like Amazon today. Of course it’s also possible we’ll look at Meta in 20 years the way we do Yahoo today - a zombie of a one-time titan.

 

[ChicagoFats]

I think their value is a super long term play. Like in 20 years we’ll be wondering how a stupid social media company became such a pervasive part of society. Like Amazon today. Of course it’s also possible we’ll look at Meta in 20 years the way we do Yahoo today - a zombie of a one-time titan.

Meta = myspace

 

[Sgfeer]

Take it with a grain of slaw

A ‘summer of pain’? The Nasdaq Composite could plunge 75% from peak, S&P 500 skid 45% from its top, warns Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd.

Minerd envisions the possibility of a summer of pain for bulls

www.marketwatch.com

 

[Hoppo]

"Let's be careful out there"

Any stock you own with a multiple >30 could be taken down to 15 before this is over.

NFLX, FB, and GOOG are now "fairly" valued. Still a bunch out there that remain way up.

Seems like a lot of businesses that were artificially buffed up by the government’s insane pandemic policies are finally coming back to earth. Though I think there’s a bigger story with Netflix, in that they’re caught in a No-man’s Land in the streaming service wars. After sitting on the sidelines for years the big networks are finally jumping into the game, and they are in a much better position to deliver content than Netflix. To thrive you need to be either have a network of channels with very rich content (ie Disney or Paramount), or have streaming as a strategic add-on to a much larger portfolio of services/products in the vein of Apple or Amazon. Netflix is neither. Almost like the squeeze KMart felt - they couldn’t compete with WalMart on price, nor with Target on quality/aesthetic. And they were left with no market in the retail space.

 

[Sikness23245]

Seems like a lot of businesses that were artificially buffed up by the government’s insane pandemic policies are finally coming back to earth. Though I think there’s a bigger story with Netflix, in that they’re caught in a No-man’s Land in the streaming service wars. After sitting on the sidelines for years the big networks are finally jumping into the game, and they are in a much better position to deliver content than Netflix. To thrive you need to be either have a network of channels with very rich content (ie Disney or Paramount), or have streaming as a strategic add-on to a much larger portfolio of services/products in the vein of Apple or Amazon. Netflix is neither. Almost like the squeeze KMart felt - they couldn’t compete with WalMart on price, nor with Target on quality/aesthetic. And they were left with no market in the retail space.

The one thing Netflix still has going for it is original content, though they're already starting to fall off in that area. If they can't continue their run of hit shows like Ozarks and Stranger Things, they'll be irrelevant very quickly.

 

[quickfeet]

How long until people realize the gov is just manipulating stock prices? Don't fight the fed

The entire thing collapses if they don't keep it inflated, pension plans and social security, banks, everything. It can fall so much, but just a matter of time until fake money pulls it back. We are functioning on the concept of Modern Monetary Theory which says that is the way to handle it

 

[Hoppo]

The one thing Netflix still has going for it is original content, though they're already starting to fall off in that area. If they can't continue their run of hit shows like Ozarks and Stranger Things, they'll be irrelevant very quickly.

I’d say they had that going for them at one time. Netflix made an aggressive move to become a major player in content production. But while Covid gave them a nice revenue windfall, it also woke up movie studios who have come to understand they can no longer rely solely on theater revenues. So now they’re jumping into the streaming game.

Honestly I wouldn’t have Netflix if I didn’t have TMobile paying for it. Even if it were only 10 bucks a month I wouldn’t find it worthwhile.

I’m curious if when the stock market dust settles we’ll see an ascendancy of the companies that were harmed by Covid policy.

 

[Hoppo]

The entire thing collapses if they don't keep it inflated, pension plans and social security, banks, everything. It can fall so much, but just a matter of time until fake money pulls it back. We are functioning on the concept of Modern Monetary Theory which says that is the way to handle it

This is also true. MMT is not going away, but the experts will just quit talking so proudly about it. I suspect the Fed is naively trying to pause demand in the hopes that the supply chain will start back up on its own in a quarter or two. All this fucking meddling by midwits posing as masterminds.

 

[American Deplorable]

Stonks starting off the day in the red and down another 1% this morning. Seems like we may have lower to go. Economy is in pretty bad shape. Inlaftion is winning and gas prices are at record levels. Good thing we have sleepy joe at the wheel to straighten things out.

Things still need to go way lower.

I agree with you. Think we have another 15% or so lower to go. It won't be a straight 15% drop, we will have some rallies mixed in. But probably before the end of the year SnP goes back down to the 3200 area.

I agree that I think things will likely go down another 15-20% over the next 18-24 months.

Could be an even larger drop over the next 30 months if things start to snowball like I suspect they might.

TLDR: I’m calling 20% over 24mo but some play either way wouldn’t really surprise me.

 

[Timothy]

"Let's be careful out there"

Any stock you own with a multiple >30 could be taken down to 15 before this is over.

NFLX, FB, and GOOG are now "fairly" valued. Still a bunch out there that remain way up.

(Quoting myself to add a follow-on comment)

Today's PE multiples for some select stocks

TGT -- 13 (the new normal for 2022?)
WMT -- 24

NFLX -- 16
FB -- 14
GOOG -- 20

TWTR - 133 (needs to be taken private at this point)
TSLA - 96
NVDA -- 44

 

[Oler Ted]

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[SmokeHouse423]

I’m glad I haven’t entered just yet. No point In trying to catch a falling knife.

 

[hmt5000]

Dow 24000.... Mark it down. Not saying that is bottom but I think it hits that.

 

[ChicagoFats]

SnP cracked 4000 today. DOW 32,000Well off the lows.

Where does everyone think we go from here?

 

[American Deplorable]

SnP cracked 4000 today. DOW 32,000Well off the lows.

Where does everyone think we go from here?

Way down.

I don’t see how we don’t get the 25-40% correction the market needed and that is from the lows we were at and not the faux rally back we saw this week.

 

[Sgfeer]

SnP cracked 4000 today. DOW 32,000Well off the lows.

Where does everyone think we go from here?

A temporary buy into a bear market

 

[Uncle Muscles]

SnP cracked 4000 today. DOW 32,000Well off the lows.

Where does everyone think we go from here?