Stock market 📈 or 📉

[Timothy]

Only good news for me is that I went mostly stable value fund in my 401k in the fall of '20.

So I am cash rich to buy the bottom.

 

[shiv]

Meh, the price fluctuations are just noise. The only time i care about price is when i retire and am looking to cash in. I still have 15 more years minimum and i feel confident that in 15 years stock indexes will be higher than they are now.

No matter how many times you hear it, buy low sell high is hard to do.

Stay the course, invest in index funds or your favorite companies that make great products.

I agree. It’s just tough to watch the carnage while it’s happening. Honestly I feel good about the moves I’ve made, just have got to let them play out over the long run

Side note: I’ve been trying to but some ADA over the last month to build up my wallet on there, but damn that has been wrecked too.

 

[quickfeet]

 

[SmokeHouse423]

For someone with zero in the market and a few million in RE. What should be the next move? Wait for the inevitable crash or at least to go closer to the bottom to buy in. Any suggestions on what I should be looking for

 

[shiv]

For someone with zero in the market and a few million in RE. What should be the next move? Wait for the inevitable crash or at least to go closer to the bottom to buy in. Any suggestions on what I should be looking for

@ChicagoFats

 

[Sikness23245]

For someone with zero in the market and a few million in RE. What should be the next move? Wait for the inevitable crash or at least to go closer to the bottom to buy in. Any suggestions on what I should be looking for

This is the monthly SPY. If you're not interested in trying to predict the market, picking some up at support areas (red lines) is a good play.



If you want to make a bet on the turn, I think this is a pretty good bet. 3000 on the SPX is 300 on the SPY. I'm no expert, but until supply chains are fixed and inflation is curbed, the drop will likely continue imo. Based on the current rate hike plan, October seems about the time we'll start hearing about inflation coming under control, though there has already been talk that rate hikes will continue into next year.

View attachment 99399


Ouch, that would be down another 25%. Definitely don't think we have capitulated to max pain yet.

 

[SmokeHouse423]

This is the monthly SPY. If you're not interested in trying to predict the market, picking some up at support areas (red lines) is a good play.

View attachment 100189

If you want to make a bet on the turn, I think this is a pretty good bet. 3000 on the SPX is 300 on the SPY. I'm no expert, but until supply chains are fixed and inflation is curbed, the drop will likely continue imo. Based on the current rate hike plan, October seems about the time we'll start hearing about inflation coming under control, though there has already been talk that rate hikes will continue into next year.

Awesome. I’ll look into this.

 

[ChicagoFats]

For someone with zero in the market and a few million in RE. What should be the next move? Wait for the inevitable crash or at least to go closer to the bottom to buy in. Any suggestions on what I should be looking for

Not sure you will be able to pick the exact bottom, its really hard to do. Wait for the inevitable crash? The market is down about 15% from the highs a couple months ago, what is a crash by your definition? We certainly could go a lot lower but we also may not.

RE is my favorite investment so congrats to you on owning great investments already.

If you are looking to diversify into stocks now is a good time. I prefer to Dollar Cost Average into positions (buy a little bit at a time at pre-determined time intervals, say weekly or monthly).

I think SPY is your best play here. Unless you really like to follow the market and are interested in picking stocks then SPY is your best "set it and forget it" play. If you are at the gambling table and are looking for the best odds, SPY is your game.

 

[SmokeHouse423]

Not sure you will be able to pick the exact bottom, its really hard to do. Wait for the inevitable crash? The market is down about 15% from the highs a couple months ago, what is a crash by your definition? We certainly could go a lot lower but we also may not.

RE is my favorite investment so congrats to you on owning great investments already.

If you are looking to diversify into stocks now is a good time. I prefer to Dollar Cost Average into positions (buy a little bit at a time at pre-determined time intervals, say weekly or monthly).

I think SPY is your best play here. Unless you really like to follow the market and are interested in picking stocks then SPY is your best "set it and forget it" play. If you are at the gambling table and are looking for the best odds, SPY is your game.

I appreciate this. I don’t really have a definition of a crash but was wanting to see another 15% drop. Maybe that isn’t realistic. I waited a little to long to enter the market so what I am wanting to avoid is getting in then it having another 20-25% pullback. I’m not very knowledgeable about this type investing. RE has always seemed like the easiest and quickest way to obtain wealth. It’s also tangible and something I understand. The stock market has always felt like a fugazi

 

[shiv]

I appreciate this. I don’t really have a definition of a crash but was wanting to see another 15% drop. Maybe that isn’t realistic. I waited a little to long to enter the market so what I am wanting to avoid is getting in then it having another 20-25% pullback. I’m not very knowledgeable about this type investing. RE has always seemed like the easiest and quickest way to obtain wealth. It’s also tangible and something I understand. The stock market has always felt like a fugazi

That’s where dollar cost averaging comes in. Take the total amount you want to invest and divide it by 6. Put 1/6th in each month over the next six month. You could do the same with 12, but I think now is the time to get in sooner rather than later.

We dropped 37% in 2020 due to covid, I just don’t see another 30% drop. Plus we know that the federal reserve will always bail us out.

 

[ChicagoFats]

That’s where dollar cost averaging comes in. Take the total amount you want to invest and divide it by 6. Put 1/6th in each month over the next six month. You could do the same with 12, but I think now is the time to get in sooner rather than later.

We dropped 37% in 2020 due to covid, I just don’t see another 30% drop. Plus we know that the federal reserve will always bail us out.

I prefer dollar cost averaging, but there is an opposing view point to consider ....

Dollar Cost Averaging: A Behavioral View | Wealthfront

This is a guest post by Meir Statman. Meir Statman, PhD, is the Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance at the Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University. He is also an advisor to the Wealthfront Investment Team and the author of “What Investors Really Want: Know What Drives Investor Behavior...

blog.wealthfront.com

 

[SmokeHouse423]

I prefer dollar cost averaging, but there is an opposing view point to consider ....

Dollar Cost Averaging: A Behavioral View | Wealthfront

This is a guest post by Meir Statman. Meir Statman, PhD, is the Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance at the Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University. He is also an advisor to the Wealthfront Investment Team and the author of “What Investors Really Want: Know What Drives Investor Behavior...

blog.wealthfront.com

View attachment 100425

So you would suggest the same. If I have X amount I would like to invest break it up over 6 month period or so instead of investing all at once?

 

[ChicagoFats]

So you would suggest the same. If I have X amount I would like to invest break it up over 6 month period or so instead of investing all at once?

Yes, if it were me I would pretty much do what @Croot_Overlord suggested.

 

[ChicagoFats]

CPI - consumer price index is due out this morning at 8:30am est. Market sitting up a little over 1% before the number comes out. Same thing happened yesterday with the market being up in the morning and then swooning later in the afternoon. Will we be able to hold todays rally?

We all anticipate inflation being bad but a lot of that the market already expects. If the inflation numbers are in line or lower than expectation we could see another power rally. If inflation comes in hotter than anticipated then expect a swift sell off.

Something tells me the number is going to come in on the low side with the way the market is behaving the last couple days.

Side note: we all know that CPI is manipulated bigly and we need a better guage of inflation.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[ChicagoFats]

Market went from up over 1% to down 1% after the number. Kind of drifting around at the moment.

 

[Hoppo]

It’s so hard to say. This is a really odd time economically. It is a supply-led recession in a demand-led recovery. I don’t think unemployment would tick up by much, especially considering how many boomers are set to retire en masse. At some point this administration has to relent and cease their economic war on producers. So as the supply chain recovers and if demand remains strong (people’s cashflow should not be hit too badly) it would be irrational for the stonk market to continue declining.

 

[shiv]

We have a winner!

 

[shiv]

 

[shiv]

Massive inflation coupled with collapsing equity prices. Yikes

 

[Timothy]

Adding ads to Netflix will save the economy!

 

[AgEngDawg]

FJB!!!!

 

[AgEngDawg]

 

[ChicagoFats]

Lots of bullish trades coming through today. Wouldn't be shocked if this was the bottom forming. Snp 3925

 

[quickfeet]

Save us with yore money printer Mr. Powell

 

[ChicagoFats]

Large seller of Vix calls today. Delta player .... meaning they dont think the vix will go higher.

Selling the jun, jul and aug 32 call area. To me this implies they thing the market will stabilize.

They have been wrong before but its a multi-million dollar play.

 

[quickfeet]

Large seller of Vix calls today. Delta player .... meaning they dont think the vix will go higher.

Selling the jun, jul and aug 32 call area. To me this implies they thing the market will stabilize.

They have been wrong before but its a multi-million dollar play.

I don't completely know what that means, but sounds good to me

 

[Rebarcock.]

Massive inflation coupled with collapsing equity prices. Yikes

Shambles. Two fucking years.
If there is a plan the powers better fucking execute it now. Almost 30 years as a steel guy and we are busy still but no diesel=no deliveries. Yall gonna see my ass if everything goes to shit.
We play the game by their fucking rules while they break every fucking rule and selectively enforce the laws on certain people. Enough is enough

Edit
Sorry for the hijack

 

[shiv]

Shambles. Two fucking years.
If there is a plan the powers better fucking execute it now. Almost 30 years as a steel guy and we are busy still but no diesel=no deliveries. Yall gonna see my ass if everything goes to shit.
We play the game by their fucking rules while they break every fucking rule and selectively enforce the laws on certain people. Enough is enough

Edit
Sorry for the hijack

Not a hijack at all in my opinion. Really interested in more details

 

[quickfeet]

Only good news for me is that I went mostly stable value fund in my 401k in the fall of '20.

So I am cash rich to buy the bottom.

So when are you buying the bottom?

 

[ChicagoFats]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Rebarcock.]

Not a hijack at all in my opinion. Really interested in more details

Details may get me in preemptive trouble.
All 3 of our shops are trending up. But it is really artificial bc what we were paying 600.00per ton on 11.2.2019 we now are buying for around 1200.00per ton. So of course our sales look way up. Accounting doesn't account inflation. But we do as owners. My only costs that haven't dramatically skyrocketed are labor and utilities/rent but that is going up id suppose 12-15%this year.
The Greenspan put policy of helping the stock market is coming home to roost. All that free money is going away. So the players are sweeoing the table clear and leaving 401k folks holding the bag.
I'm just mad bc I can see a year from now there being a larger meltdown far worse than Carter's years.
We are considering all options including selling out. My Dad and Brother just left after a 4hr meeting. We are making money but no one can truly afford a 350k house on a 50k salary. Everything is a gimmick including nearly all the got damn information we can acquire.
All this shit is why I had to bow out mostly of the dances thread. I won't make 60 at 210/120blood pressure.
Can't find a person worth a fuck bc the government blew up the wage market paying 600.00 a week to sit around bc of the fucking flu.
I'm about to throw my cell I gotta stop.
Life on the wagon sucks big dicks. I like drinking and laughing and not giving a fuck.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Not a hijack at all in my opinion. Really interested in more details

I'm sure you saw the diesel thread
angdawg put out. That will starve the population out. Plan to grow food and guard it.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

A little OT, and I've asked this a few months ago, but why in the face of serious inflation and in the face of a now evident bear market why do gold & silver continue to slide?

 

[Hoppo]

I'm sure you saw the diesel thread
angdawg put out. That will starve the population out. Plan to grow food and guard it.

Why?

The ruling class is made of meat. Bureaucrats in our bloated government are made of meat. 81 million Biden voters are made of meat. Repeat after me: there will be no food shortage.

 

[Rebarcock.]

A little OT, and I've asked this a few months ago, but why in the face of serious inflation and in the face of a now evident bear market why do gold & silver continue to slide?

I think the metals market is heavily manipulated myself. I've watched all metals for 30 years and can spot weird shit every week. Gold should be closer to 4k just based on the inflation and money printing.
Crypto got a trillion dollar shave this week

 

[BurntJ]

Shambles. Two fucking years.
If there is a plan the powers better fucking execute it now. Almost 30 years as a steel guy and we are busy still but no diesel=no deliveries. Yall gonna see my ass if everything goes to shit.
We play the game by their fucking rules while they break every fucking rule and selectively enforce the laws on certain people. Enough is enough

Edit
Sorry for the hijack

If it gets worse.....im down.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Lots of bullish trades coming through today. Wouldn't be shocked if this was the bottom forming. Snp 3925

3925 was indeed close to the bottom at that time.

SnP now trading 4055. Starting to feel top heavy here.

 

[Timothy]

Netflix making lots of changes. Laying off 150

 

[Timothy]

Ouch. When Target gets nailed 25% on an earnings miss, it is time to get nervous.

 

[quickfeet]

​