Gasoline/diesel prices and supply....fill em up

[denn]

Thx Biden voters, u fucking twats

They have no clue just like the guy they voted for. Even after you try and tell them, they still have no clue and that is the way the liberals want their voters. Dumb.

$3/gallon in CT right now.

 

[Nape]

Biden didn't get more votes, he was installed. Technically not their faults.



If the people causing this knew before what their plan was, they could place their bets accordingly. All they need is movement either way. The higher the volatility the better.

@Nape Great insight. How is the unrefined market? Is cushing and similar still full?

I’m not up to speed on Cushing, etal. I know they’ve been building out storage there for some time.

 

[Nape]

RBOB up another 6 cents today. There has been hardly any tradable pullbacks since the crime of the century.

 

[Jtrain80]

I’m not up to speed on Cushing, etal. I know they’ve been building out storage there for some time.

48 mil bbl. WTI went negative @ ~70 mil.

I got to the 1 yr chart before it wanted a subscription. Looks pretty full to me.

 

[McDicker]

Great, I just traded from a compact to a mid-size sedan.

 

[yz558]

Great, I just traded from a compact to a mid-size sedan.

Shit my truck has a 44 gallon tank and gets 12-13mpg around town. I’ve been riding the bike a lot more, it gets 45ish mpg if I keep the front wheel on the ground.

 

[America 1st]

Shit my truck has a 44 gallon tank and gets 12-13mpg around town. I’ve been riding the bike a lot more, it gets 45ish mpg if I keep the front wheel stays on the ground.

 

[yz558]

I wish it looked that cool. It’s just too much fun.

Mine looks like this.

 

[tgsell]

I’m not up to speed on Cushing, etal. I know they’ve been building out storage there for some time.

Storage is of no consequence if there is half the product.

 

[4n6tox]

I wish it looked that cool. It’s just too much fun.

Mine looks like this.

Love the enduro style bikes. I wrecked one due to having the knobby tires that grabbed an asphalt gap on the colonial parkway in VA 7 or so years ago. Tibial plateau fracture was terrible but wearing full faced helmet and gear saved my life. I would love to ride again, but I'm not tempting the gods twice. Ride safe.

 

[PawPower1981]

Why is diesel fuel only like .03 more the regular unleaded at my gas station....it’s normally .25 cent more??

@Nape

 

[Nape]

Why is diesel fuel only like .03 more the regular unleaded at my gas station....it’s normally .25 cent more??

@Nape

The simple answer is there is an abundance of it.

The complex answer is the drop in demand the last year due to the WuFlu. Typically you get about 19 or 20 gallons of gasoline from a barrel of oil and about 11 gallons of ULSD. So if you take all of the trucking and shipping demand offline around the world for months on end you will see a rapid increase in supply. Add in the fact that the NE heating oil corridor has had a relatively mild winter and the effect is higher distillate supplies.

A fundamental reason for diesel typically more expensive is the federal excise tax on ULSD (24.4cpg) is higher than gasoline (18.4cpg). We are one of the few countries on the planet where gasoline is cheaper than diesel.

 

[yankmenoodle]

Right on schedule. Last week was $2.99 a gallon. Today, $3.99.

 

[CrimsonTider22]

Broke 60 bucks filling my truck up.

Yep...I did this morning as well...

 

[yz558]

Love the enduro style bikes. I wrecked one due to having the knobby tires that grabbed an asphalt gap on the colonial parkway in VA 7 or so years ago. Tibial plateau fracture was terrible but wearing full faced helmet and gear saved my life. I would love to ride again, but I'm not tempting the gods twice. Ride safe.

They are a lot of fun. More fun off road than on but not quite a dirt bike in true single track.

 

[America 1st]

The simple answer is there is an abundance of it.

The complex answer is the drop in demand the last year due to the WuFlu. Typically you get about 19 or 20 gallons of gasoline from a barrel of oil and about 11 gallons of ULSD. So if you take all of the trucking and shipping demand offline around the world for months on end you will see a rapid increase in supply. Add in the fact that the NE heating oil corridor has had a relatively mild winter and the effect is higher distillate supplies.

A fundamental reason for diesel typically more expensive is the federal excise tax on ULSD (24.4cpg) is higher than gasoline (18.4cpg). We are one of the few countries on the planet where gasoline is cheaper than diesel.

Yeah can't have a pro business / work model for anything in the US or those blue collar deplorables will improve their lives.

 

[grimm515]

It's completely off the rails. I've been considering another opportunity and looking at the market. Average ass 3000K sq ft newer builds are 500-750K in Johnson County, KS. Not somewhere incredibly desirable, but KANSAS.

I'm selling this summer in JoCo and moving south of Louisburg. Bought the home in 2012 for 220k. I bet it sells north of 350.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

We are a wholesale fuel jobber in Chicagoland. We supply regular, premium, ULSD #2 diesel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and E85. We have agreements with the two largest refiners in Chicago, BP and ExxonMobile. Chicago has multiple refineries and a maze of pipelines supplying this market and the surrounding areas. There is never a shortage of fuel in our area, be it in terminals, on pipelines, or on coaster barges.

With that being said, we have had a fucking hair pulling experience the last few weeks getting barrels to supply to our customers. It’s almost like someone shut off the tap. We could pull 50,000 gallons of regular, 20,000 gallons of premium, and 30,000 gallons of E85 a day and our suppliers wouldn’t even blink. Those volumes are a drop in the bucket for them. The last 7 business days we have been denied barrels at the terminal rack, told that our allocation (gallons earmarked for us) was not approved, and forced to find gallons elsewhere. Something’s fucked up and I’ve never seen anything like it. I have an idea what’s going on but in a backwardated market it is in my supplier’s best interest to move their distillate ASAP.

Bottom line? Prices have risen 60-80% in the last few months and its only getting worse.

We just added 2 1000 gallon diesel tanks on the farms to go with the existing one Filled them all up.

Friend of mine with a larger operation installed a new 10k tank in January

 

[4n6tox]

I'm selling this summer in JoCo and moving south of Louisburg. Bought the home in 2012 for 220k. I bet it sells north of 350.

How are the schools down there? Private options if no good?

 

[hmt5000]

Why is diesel fuel only like .03 more the regular unleaded at my gas station....it’s normally .25 cent more??

@Nape

Why is it more expensive period...? Diesel takes less effort to make than gasoline.

 

[grimm515]

How are the schools down there? Private options if no good?

Public schools outside the KC Metro still say Merry Christmas and don't shove equity bullshit in their employees faces. That being said, there's very affordable private school options.

 

[Nape]

Why is it more expensive period...? Diesel takes less effort to make than gasoline.

Taxes.

Front month futs, both settling to New York Harbor, has RBOB trading at a 19 cent premium to ULSD.

 

[Pineapple]

NW Louisiana racks are stalling with heavy demand and low supply. WTX is covered. Oddly it used to be the Permian that had allocation issues but with Magellan adding gallons, Sunoco’s Terminal (JC Nolan) in Stanton and Delek taking over Big Spring that market is flooded.

Big players are buying at OPIS Low -.03 to -.05.

 

[Nape]

NW Louisiana racks are stalling with heavy demand and low supply. WTX is covered. Oddly it used to be the Permian that had allocation issues but with Magellan adding gallons, Sunoco’s Terminal (JC Nolan) in Stanton and Delek taking over Big Spring that market is flooded.

Big players are buying at OPIS Low -.03 to -.05.

That’s a nice diff....assuming you are talking WTX at OPIS under?

Day barrels up here are all over the place. A huge problem at the racks is the spread between Argus and Platts has gotten stoopid. BP racks (Argus) are typically a penny or two over Exxon racks (Platts). About 3 weeks ago they were better by 3-4 cents. Now look at them:

 

[Nape]

NW Louisiana racks are stalling with heavy demand and low supply. WTX is covered. Oddly it used to be the Permian that had allocation issues but with Magellan adding gallons, Sunoco’s Terminal (JC Nolan) in Stanton and Delek taking over Big Spring that market is flooded.

Big players are buying at OPIS Low -.03 to -.05.

Who are the main players in NW LA? I assume TAC, Global, Murphy, and Delek (maybe).

 

[Pineapple]

That’s a nice diff....assuming you are talking WTX at OPIS under?

Day barrels up here are all over the place. A huge problem at the racks is the spread between Argus and Platts has gotten stoopid. BP racks (Argus) are typically a penny or two over Exxon racks (Platts). About 3 weeks ago they were better by 3-4 cents. Now look at them:
View attachment 10906
View attachment 10907

Exactly. We would seek barrels at OPIS Low -.03 with a Platts backstop at 12 to 16.
Cray how the pricing fluctuates. Murex buying 8mm barrels a month at those numbers was a great POT for us.

 

[Nape]

Exactly. We would seek barrels at OPIS Low -.03 with a Platts backstop at 12 to 16.
Cray how the pricing fluctuates. Murex buying 8mm barrels a month at those numbers was a great POT for us.

Indeed. Who do you deal with at Murex? Jeremy M?

 

[Tell_Sackett]

Bump for an update... Any change? @Nape

Thanks

 

[CDDP]

 

[Nape]

Bump for an update... Any change? @Nape

Thanks

The roaring rally in futs and swaps has taken a breather. But that doesn’t mean prices are going lower. Just yesterday RBOB futs were down about a nickel but our wholesale costs here in Pritzkanistan went up. There is what’s called “basis risk” everywhere due to a significant lack of supply still in the system. Basis is how your area is trading versus the delivery point of the contract. RBOB settles to New York Harbor, so our basis in Chicago is typically 5-10 cents under NYH. As of last night we were about 27 under the Harbor, which shows how tight things are on the East coast. Futures are down another 5-6 cents today so it will be interesting to see where my cost comes in tonight at pricing (typically between 5 and 6p).

 

[Nape]

Another rout in the energy markets today. Crude down $5, RBOB settled down 13c and ULSD looks down 15c. My Chicago barrels should be going up tonight.

 

[skoolbyrd]

Read every post ITT and still have no clue as to why gas prices are going up, up, up.

 

[Nape]

Read every post ITT and still have no clue as to why gas prices are going up, up, up.

Supply and demand. Refineries have had issues, the supply of feedstock (crude oil) is tight as it’s been in quite some time, and political bullshit has brought the market to quite the imbalance.

 

[ChicagoFats]

The roaring rally in futs and swaps has taken a breather. But that doesn’t mean prices are going lower. Just yesterday RBOB futs were down about a nickel but our wholesale costs here in Pritzkanistan went up. There is what’s called “basis risk” everywhere due to a significant lack of supply still in the system. Basis is how your area is trading versus the delivery point of the contract. RBOB settles to New York Harbor, so our basis in Chicago is typically 5-10 cents under NYH. As of last night we were about 27 under the Harbor, which shows how tight things are on the East coast. Futures are down another 5-6 cents today so it will be interesting to see where my cost comes in tonight at pricing (typically between 5 and 6p).

Whats up Nape? Enjoy your cooking threads. Used to trade down at CBOE for years until i wizened up and moved out of Chicago and headed for warmer climate.

Not much exposure to the gasoline and / or oil trading but am interested. Question, why is the basis in Chicago cheaper than in NY where the contract is settled? It seems if the product gets to NY harbor and the contract is settled, that there would be additional basis (cost) to get the product to Chicago? Clearly i am misunderstanding something.

What ticker symbol do you follow for gas? Rbob? Are those futures? Do you follow the gas / oil relationship or mostly just gas?

 

[Nape]

Whats up Nape? Enjoy your cooking threads. Used to trade down at CBOE for years until i wizened up and moved out of Chicago and headed for warmer climate.

Not much exposure to the gasoline and / or oil trading but am interested. Question, why is the basis in Chicago cheaper than in NY where the contract is settled? It seems if the product gets to NY harbor and the contract is settled, that there would be additional basis (cost) to get the product to Chicago? Clearly i am misunderstanding something.

What ticker symbol do you follow for gas? Rbob? Are those futures? Do you follow the gas / oil relationship or mostly just gas?

Great question.

As you know, if you take a future contract to settlement date you are obligated to deliver the product (short the contract) or buy the product (long the contract) by a certain date. You can agree upon a different location that the CME allows but that would be price adjusted for basis, freight, etal.

The main reason Chi basis is typically where it is is because of refinery feedstock. Years ago (early 2000s) BP and Exxon (two largest Chi refineries) along with Citgo, put billions of dollars into their kits to be able to run very heavy, sour crude coming out of Canada. Known as tar sands, this shit is god awful stuff and a bitch to crack. The redeeming quality of it is its price. It typically will be at a steep discount to WTI or other light sweets or even medium light sweets. So these refineries in the region are running crude that could be $20-30/bbl cheaper. That makes a huge difference. These refineries can also run Bakken crude but it’s significantly lighter than tar sands, thus more expensive

Also keep in mind that a lot of the product in NE/Mid-Atlantic comes up the Colonial Pipeline from Houston. They also have a robust import market when the arb to European product is open.

RBOB is all we follow. We will look to feedstock changes but that doesn’t happen frequently because of supply agreements between refiners and their crude supplier.

 

[RHT 3]

The simple answer is there is an abundance of it.

The complex answer is the drop in demand the last year due to the WuFlu. Typically you get about 19 or 20 gallons of gasoline from a barrel of oil and about 11 gallons of ULSD. So if you take all of the trucking and shipping demand offline around the world for months on end you will see a rapid increase in supply. Add in the fact that the NE heating oil corridor has had a relatively mild winter and the effect is higher distillate supplies.

A fundamental reason for diesel typically more expensive is the federal excise tax on ULSD (24.4cpg) is higher than gasoline (18.4cpg). We are one of the few countries on the planet where gasoline is cheaper than diesel.

I look forward to getting another diesel truck. People see the higher price sometimes but don't understand the gas mileage differences, the difference in longevity of the engines, and if you drive a lot you'll actually come out way ahead with a diesel cost wise.

Plus its clean regardless of what the idiots say.

 

[Nape]

Massive supply issue this morning. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports fuels from the refining base in the GC from Houston to NYC, was shut down by a cyber attack. That’s a huge fucking deal as that pipeline supplies about half of all fuel consumed on the east coast. If you need fuel go get it now. Prices are sure to surge in some areas that aren’t flush with reserves.

 

[Viking]

Massive supply issue this morning. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports fuels from the refining base in the GC from Houston to NYC, was shut down by a cyber attack. That’s a huge fucking deal as that pipeline supplies about half of all fuel consumed on the east coast. If you need fuel go get it now. Prices are sure to surge in some areas that aren’t flush with reserves.

Meanwhile we debate about vaccines and masks. Our enemies seem to be pressing their advantage. Could be a long hot summer as tempers and frustrations rise. Meanwhile at The White House.
SKOL!

 

[Boxman4]

We are a wholesale fuel jobber in Chicagoland. We supply regular, premium, ULSD #2 diesel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and E85. We have agreements with the two largest refiners in Chicago, BP and ExxonMobile. Chicago has multiple refineries and a maze of pipelines supplying this market and the surrounding areas. There is never a shortage of fuel in our area, be it in terminals, on pipelines, or on coaster barges.

With that being said, we have had a fucking hair pulling experience the last few weeks getting barrels to supply to our customers. It’s almost like someone shut off the tap. We could pull 50,000 gallons of regular, 20,000 gallons of premium, and 30,000 gallons of E85 a day and our suppliers wouldn’t even blink. Those volumes are a drop in the bucket for them. The last 7 business days we have been denied barrels at the terminal rack, told that our allocation (gallons earmarked for us) was not approved, and forced to find gallons elsewhere. Something’s fucked up and I’ve never seen anything like it. I have an idea what’s going on but in a backwardated market it is in my supplier’s best interest to move their distillate ASAP.

Bottom line? Prices have risen 60-80% in the last few months and its only getting worse.

My Step Father (May he Rest In Peace) was a jobber for Marathon Oil. He had the Illinois territory for 10 years or so back in early 2000’s. Fascinating business.

 

[AgEngDawg]

My Step Father (May he Rest In Peace) was a jobber for Marathon Oil. He had the Illinois territory for 10 years or so back in early 2000’s. Fascinating business.

I worked for a jobber in high school.

They took oil from the distribution points to stations.

That is what you are talking about right?