Gasoline/diesel prices and supply....fill em up

[noelnole]

what am i missing here? as ive learned from the election everything is just soooo coincidental

biden takes office, gas prices rising slowly

then a "cyberattack" and gas prices are thru the roof

whats their end game this time, implement green new deal?

theyre making us suffer so we'll eventually have to rely on the gov again? someone set me straight

 

[noelnole]

There are two types of jobbers....branded and unbranded. A branded jobber, like Parent Petroleum here in Chicagoland, supplies branded fuel such as BP or Shell to those branded stations. I am an unbranded jobber. I sell to unbranded sites even though my two main supply points are Exxon and BP.

A branded jobber typically not only deals with fuel but also brand image....forecourt and backcourt displays, street signs, canopy signs/lighting. We don’t worry about that shit. I just try to sell as cheaply as I can to my customers to make them more competitive on the street.

off topic but if you have any gas/oil signs you want to sell, lmk

 

[Cre8ive]

These gas lines are interesting. I do realize that some areas are running out, but it most parts of the east and south east there is plenty of gas, YET the snowflakes line up like ARMAGEDDON in just around the next corner! HA!

It's like when we have a forecast of possible snow of 1/2 to 1" all the jackasses in the neighborhood run to Publix and buy all the bread and milk like we're forecast to get 12' and be buried under arctic conditions for months.

 

[Nape]

off topic but if you have any gas/oil signs you want to sell, lmk

I’m not in that business. I do know that old signs are are huge collectible items though.

 

[Nape]

These gas lines are interesting. I do realize that some areas are running out, but it most parts of the east and south east there is plenty of gas, YET the snowflakes line up like ARMAGEDDON in just around the next corner! HA!

It's like when we have a forecast of possible snow of 1/2 to 1" all the jackasses in the neighborhood run to Publix and buy all the bread and milk like we're forecast to get 12' and be buried under arctic conditions for months.

It really does go to show you how selfish people really are. The world is full of selfish idiots.

 

[America 1st]

 

[GatorOK]

Never let a crisis go to waste.....

 

[22*43*51]

These gas lines are interesting. I do realize that some areas are running out, but it most parts of the east and south east there is plenty of gas, YET the snowflakes line up like ARMAGEDDON in just around the next corner! HA!

It's like when we have a forecast of possible snow of 1/2 to 1" all the jackasses in the neighborhood run to Publix and buy all the bread and milk like we're forecast to get 12' and be buried under arctic conditions for months.

You do remember what we did to toilet paper inventories this time last year, right?

 

[Nape]

Spoke with a couple of trader pals in London. There is a chartering frenzy going on in Rotterdam. There are already 8 vessels chartered by traders that are on tap to be loaded by Thursday. It’s typically a 14 day trip from ROT to NYH. They are hearing that these cargoes might be destined for the Harbor and Savannah.

 

[GarnetPild]

Spoke with a couple of trader pals in London. There is a chartering frenzy going on in Rotterdam. There are already 8 vessels chartered by traders that are on tap to be loaded by Thursday. It’s typically a 14 day trip from ROT to NYH. They are hearing that these cargoes might be destined for the Harbor and Savannah.

Dude...appreciate your info in this thread. Most of us outside the industry are clueless about it.

I stocked up yesterday, so should be good for at least a few weeks, if not more. My girlfriend's brother said he cannot find gas anywhere in Sumter, SC...so I expect to see more of that in the next day or two, as people keep using gas that isn't being replenished.

Those criticizing people for being selfish right now, I do not understand. This isn't like food or water. It is difficult or near impossible for most folks to store any significant amount of gas for any long period of time, and most of us need it just to get to work and live our lives everyday.

 

[Nape]

Dude...appreciate your info in this thread. Most of us outside the industry are clueless about it.

I stocked up yesterday, so should be good for at least a few weeks, if not more. My girlfriend's brother said he cannot find gas anywhere in Sumter, SC...so I expect to see more of that in the next day or two, as people keep using gas that isn't being replenished.

Those criticizing people for being selfish right now, I do not understand. This isn't like food or water. It is difficult or near impossible for most folks to store any significant amount of gas for any long period of time, and most of us need it just to get to work and live our lives everyday.

This could turn into a real shit show in a NY minute. The biggest problem outside of the Colonial being down is there is a dearth of truckers to haul it into the region. That’s how the supply will be supplemented if the pipeline stays shuttered. And it’ll be expensive.

As for my thoughts on people being selfish....most of those who horde don’t need it. Those of us who do need it for daily business get left in the lurch. Pretty much what happened with TP last summer.

 

[GarnetPild]

This could turn into a real shit show in a NY minute. The biggest problem outside of the Colonial being down is there is a dearth of truckers to haul it into the region. That’s how the supply will be supplemented if the pipeline stays shuttered. And it’ll be expensive.

As for my thoughts on people being selfish....most of those who horde don’t need it. Those of us who do need it for daily business get left in the lurch. Pretty much what happened with TP last summer.

I feel you on the tp. The only difference as I see it is that most people are not filling their garages with gas cans. Most people are just filling their tanks, which they will likely need over the next week or so.

I bet tesla owners right now are feeling about as smug as the preppers when we were all desperate for paper products last summer

 

[Nape]

I feel you on the tp. The only difference as I see it is that most people are not filling their garages with gas cans. Most people are just filling their tanks, which they will likely need over the next week or so.

I bet tesla owners right now are feeling about as smug as the preppers when we were all desperate for paper products last summer

I get it. Most gas stations have 12,000 gallon regular tanks, 6000 premium tanks, and 4-6000 gallon diesel tanks. Obviously busier sites have larger or more tanks but it doesn’t take long to run through a tank.

If someone has 1/3 a tank and drives 50 miles a week they will follow the herd and go fill up. If they have two cars they will fill up both. It’s a cascading effect without anyone having their own storage. And if you do then you get a delivery to that tank. Problem is, that fuel comes from the same terminal that has stations pull from.

 

[GarnetPild]

I get it. Most gas stations have 12,000 gallon regular tanks, 6000 premium tanks, and 4-6000 gallon diesel tanks. Obviously busier sites have larger or more tanks but it doesn’t take long to run through a tank.

If someone has 1/3 a tank and drives 50 miles a week they will follow the herd and go fill up. If they have two cars they will fill up both. It’s a cascading effect without anyone having their own storage. And if you do then you get a delivery to that tank. Problem is, that fuel comes from the same terminal that has stations pull from.

Easy to understand how a ripple in the supply chain can fuck up alot of shit down the line...and this seems to be much more than a ripple.

 

[Nape]

Another variable that will cause issues.....allocations at terminals. Take Doraville, GA for instance. At BP Doraville or Citgo Doraville or Motiva Doraville....big customers get dibs. QT gets preference at Motiva. Kroger gets preference at BP. If these terminals are allocated (meaning limited supply) then their largest customers get their shit first. Unbranded wholesale customers get their allocation reduced and that ripples all the way down to the volume in the tanks I mentioned above. I know that Kroger has 34 million gallons a month of demand in Atlanta. Is BP going to give a wholesale unbranded jobber gallons or Kroger? As I mentioned above, if this shutdown goes beyond Saturday it’s going to be a real bad deal. Every day the Colonial is down it takes 5-7 days to get that back. Today was the 4th day. That’s 20-28 days to get back to normal juice. That’s a big fucking deal.

 

[Nape]

Easy to understand how a ripple in the supply chain can fuck up alot of shit down the line...and this seems to be much more than a ripple.

It’s starting to go from a pebble to a hand sized rock. Each day that ripple gets larger.

 

[hmt5000]

How big of an absolute douche does Andrew Yang look like now with his "truckers will be out of work in just a few years with automated trucks"? That fuckhead needs to be asked about the 100,000 shortage in truck drivers.

 

[GarnetPild]

It’s starting to go from a pebble to a hand sized rock. Each day that ripple gets larger.

A coworker of mine was laughing at me for gassing everything up today, saying they expect the pipeline to be back up by the weekend. I feel like if it is down fof a week+, that will be pretty bad. Lots of places already dry. I wonder how many could last til the weekend, if need be.

 

[Nape]

How big of an absolute douche does Andrew Yang look like now with his "truckers will be out of work in just a few years with automated trucks"? That fuckhead needs to be asked about the 100,000 shortage in truck drivers.

I use a large local carrier here in Chicagoland to haul all of my fuel. Pre WuFlu they ran 47 trucks and were always jacked up with volume. During the lockdown they were running maybe 15 trucks. They lost a lot of drivers and they simply haven’t come back. Now that traffic is getting somewhat normal and demand is robust they simply don’t have the manpower to run those 47 trucks. Their issue isn’t pay. Their drivers make good money. The issue is the length of time it takes to get someone certified to haul fuel.

 

[Nape]

A coworker of mine was laughing at me for gassing everything up today, saying they expect the pipeline to be back up by the weekend. I feel like if it is down fof a week+, that will be pretty bad. Lots of places already dry. I wonder how many could last til the weekend, if need be.

Where are you? I can give you an idea of how bad it could get.

 

[RJ2kWJ]

I use a large local carrier here in Chicagoland to haul all of my fuel. Pre WuFlu they ran 47 trucks and were always jacked up with volume. During the lockdown they were running maybe 15 trucks. They lost a lot of drivers and they simply haven’t come back. Now that traffic is getting somewhat normal and demand is robust they simply don’t have the manpower to run those 47 trucks. Their issue isn’t pay. Their drivers make good money. The issue is the length of time it takes to get someone certified to haul fuel.

Holy shit.

 

[Nape]

Holy shit.

Right!

 

[GarnetPild]

Where are you? I can give you an idea of how bad it could get.

I am in Clarendon county, S.C. right near I-95.

 

[Nape]

The most profitable fuel for me is E85. I’m the largest supplier of E85 in Chicagoland. A big chunk of that is stations selling Unleaded 88, which is E15. It’s 88 octane and 5-10 cents cheaper than regular 87. The issue for me is I have to send my trucks to Rochelle, which is 80-100 miles away from my clients. I do about 70 trucks a month from the plant in Rochelle. Paying about 8 cpg for freight is frightening for my clients but they understand that they are making 70 cpg at city locations and 25-30 cpg in the burbs. They look at freight as overhead. My carrier realizes how profitable it is for all of us and it hasn’t been affected....yet.

 

[Nape]

I am in Clarendon county, S.C. right near I-95.

You should be good as Savannah has Colonial Oil (not related to Colonial pipeline), a large supplier to your area and most of their supply comes via vessels. While it’s not next door per se it’s still close enough to you to somewhat alleviate the issue. The problem is can the harbor in Savannah handle their own shit as well as other locations (Charleston, St Simons Island, Brunswick, Hilton Head, etal) in addition to the new demand from pipeline customers.

 

[GarnetPild]

You should be good as Savannah has Colonial Oil (not related to Colonial pipeline), a large supplier to your area and most of their supply comes via vessels. While it’s not next door per se it’s still close enough to you to somewhat alleviate the issue. The problem is can the harbor in Savannah handle their own shit as well as other locations (Charleston, St Simons Island, Brunswick, Hilton Head, etal) in addition to the new demand from pipeline customers.

We shall see. I know alot of gas goes through Savannah...am I imagining them having a refinary???

My family is in the upstate, Spartanburg & Greenville. The Colonial pipeline runs right by them, and until it is back up, I expect them to be in worse shape. Fuck, the prices are going to be high this summer.

 

[RJ2kWJ]

I’m learning a ton ITT.

 

[Nape]

We shall see. I know alot of gas goes through Savannah...am I imagining them having a refinary???

My family is in the upstate, Spartanburg & Greenville. The Colonial pipeline runs right by them, and until it is back up, I expect them to be in worse shape. Fuck, the prices are going to be high this summer.

For sure on the Upstate. I do a lot biz with Spinx. Good fucking people.

There is a small, 28,000 barrel a day refinery there but it’s main product is asphalt. The amount of gasoline/diesel produced there would be just enough to meet some of the local demand but not nearly all of it.

 

[GarnetPild]

For sure on the Upstate. I do a lot biz with Spinx. Good fucking people.

There is a small, 28,000 barrel a day refinery there but it’s main product is asphalt. The amount of gasoline/diesel produced there would be just enough to meet some of the local demand but not nearly all of it.

I gotcha.

Spinx & QT are both super nice stations compared to the crap we have here in my neck of the woods. They are always very clean, and polite...like the chic fila of gas stations lol.

 

[Nape]

We haven’t even touched on the issue with Jet A. ATL could have a major problem on their hands going forward if this stretches out much past this weekend.

 

[Nape]

I gotcha.

Spinx & QT are both super nice stations compared to the crap we have here in my neck of the woods. They are always very clean, and polite...like the chic fila of gas stations lol.

They are. I play in the Spinx golf tourney every year at the Chanticleer course at Greenville CC. Awesome joint.

 

[GarnetPild]

They are. I play in the Spinx golf tourney every year at the Chanticleer course at Greenville CC. Awesome joint.

No shit. My brother in law & sister are member there & live in Chanticleer. Small world. Nice little place, tucked into downtown Greenville.

 

[noelnole]

Where are you? I can give you an idea of how bad it could get.

whats the outlook for the FL panhandle specfically pensacola? alot are freakin out down here and the state rep made an announcement that hoarding fuel is unnecessary

states we dont get our fuel from the colonial

pcola also had the main distribution terminal shut down about a wk ago for epa violations, the powers that be are tryin to reopen it asap

 

[GatorOK]

@Nape sorry but need your help for trip planning. Headed to Gainsville GA via 65 and 85. Do freeway stations get priority for gas? I can get there, worried about getting back.

 

[Rusty Student]

@Nape, how about the Midwest? Specifically St Louis area?

 

[GarnetPild]

@Nape sorry but need your help for trip planning. Headed to Gainsville GA via 65 and 85. Do freeway stations get priority for gas? I can get there, worried about getting back.

I'm not Nape, obviously, and I'm sure you are already thinking this...but I am travelling the next few weekends and don't plan on letting my tank get even below a half full. I figure if shit gets bad while I am away, with half a tank and a light foot, I can probably make it to a station with gas somewhere. Or make it home, as I am only going to beaches an hour or two away.

That said, @Nape has been very helpful and I'm sure will be along in awhile to chime in on your specific trip.

 

[CDDP]

@Nape, how about the Midwest? Specifically St Louis area?

This. We good in da Lou? @Nape

 

[Jayhacker]

Was in KC over the weekend and saw no problems there or anywhere across the state going west.

 

[Nape]

whats the outlook for the FL panhandle specfically pensacola? alot are freakin out down here and the state rep made an announcement that hoarding fuel is unnecessary

states we dont get our fuel from the colonial

pcola also had the main distribution terminal shut down about a wk ago for epa violations, the powers that be are tryin to reopen it asap

Pensacola should be fine. They are more than likely supplied by “coasters”, generally 25,000 barrel barges/ships that come from Houston/LA.

 

[Nape]

@Nape sorry but need your help for trip planning. Headed to Gainsville GA via 65 and 85. Do freeway stations get priority for gas? I can get there, worried about getting back.

If the stations are part of a larger supply agreement then yes. The main choke point is Atlanta up to Greensboro and into VA. Any area in that corridor is going to have issues the longer this goes.

A lot also depends on if the retail operation has its own terminal space. I know that Kroger has no storage at any terminal. They buy FOB the rack, meaning their carrier picks it up at the rack from their supplier and doesn’t own storage or a position in the terminal. I believe QT is the same way but I’m not certain.