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Gasoline/diesel prices and supply....fill em up

Nape

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We are a wholesale fuel jobber in Chicagoland. We supply regular, premium, ULSD #2 diesel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and E85. We have agreements with the two largest refiners in Chicago, BP and ExxonMobile. Chicago has multiple refineries and a maze of pipelines supplying this market and the surrounding areas. There is never a shortage of fuel in our area, be it in terminals, on pipelines, or on coaster barges.

With that being said, we have had a fucking hair pulling experience the last few weeks getting barrels to supply to our customers. It’s almost like someone shut off the tap. We could pull 50,000 gallons of regular, 20,000 gallons of premium, and 30,000 gallons of E85 a day and our suppliers wouldn’t even blink. Those volumes are a drop in the bucket for them. The last 7 business days we have been denied barrels at the terminal rack, told that our allocation (gallons earmarked for us) was not approved, and forced to find gallons elsewhere. Something’s fucked up and I’ve never seen anything like it. I have an idea what’s going on but in a backwardated market it is in my supplier’s best interest to move their distillate ASAP.

Bottom line? Prices have risen 60-80% in the last few months and its only getting worse.
 

tgsio

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2.80 here today at the Sunoco on Brown St. (You know the gas station, that's why I was specific)

I got gas in KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, and OH in the last 4 days. My guesstimate average price was 2.60 until today. .20 jump since last night in Cincy.
 

Nape

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2.80 here today at the Sunoco on Brown St. (You know the gas station, that's why I was specific)

I got gas in KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, and OH in the last 4 days. My guesstimate average price was 2.60 until today. .20 jump since last night in Cincy.
I do! My next door neighbor’s son is a FR at UD. We are planning a golf trip in May to NCR and then over to Scioto. His boy is my younger boys age. Should be a doozie. Would love to buy ya a good bourbon if you’ll allow it.
 

America 1st

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Yup. Guys that work at the refinery here in town aren't exactly sunshine and rainbows.

2.80 one block from said refinery.
 

tgsell

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We are a wholesale fuel jobber in Chicagoland. We supply regular, premium, ULSD #2 diesel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and E85. We have agreements with the two largest refiners in Chicago, BP and ExxonMobile. Chicago has multiple refineries and a maze of pipelines supplying this market and the surrounding areas. There is never a shortage of fuel in our area, be it in terminals, on pipelines, or on coaster barges.

With that being said, we have had a fucking hair pulling experience the last few weeks getting barrels to supply to our customers. It’s almost like someone shut off the tap. We could pull 50,000 gallons of regular, 20,000 gallons of premium, and 30,000 gallons of E85 a day and our suppliers wouldn’t even blink. Those volumes are a drop in the bucket for them. The last 7 business days we have been denied barrels at the terminal rack, told that our allocation (gallons earmarked for us) was not approved, and forced to find gallons elsewhere. Something’s fucked up and I’ve never seen anything like it. I have an idea what’s going on but in a backwardated market it is in my supplier’s best interest to move their distillate ASAP.

Bottom line? Prices have risen 60-80% in the last few months and its only getting worse.
From the side way upstream from where you are...buckle up, it is going to get worse.
 

Nape

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From the side way upstream from where you are...buckle up, it is going to get worse.
Not a doubt in my mind. We are looking at investing in some “barges” that we can buy and store product on the I&M canal up here. Totally against the grain in a backwardated market but that backwardation is going to be severe and move out across the structure.
 

Nape

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Yeah I have my guess too. I think your right about how this is going to go.

Could be 3.50 by Easter and I'm trying to be conservative.
$4+ after Memorial Day for sure. Stocks are low and the shutdowns in the Gulf Coast from the freeze are still rippling though the market. Deer Park in TX (315kbbl/day) is still having issues. That’s a lotta juice offline. The issue is supply agreements are being tossed aside due to force majeure.
 

America 1st

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$4+ after Memorial Day for sure. Stocks are low and the shutdowns in the Gulf Coast from the freeze are still rippling though the market. Deer Park in TX (315kbbl/day) is still having issues. That’s a lotta juice offline. The issue is supply agreements are being tossed aside due to force majeure.
I'd agree.

Market is going to continue to drop and the jump in prices, coupled with what Powell said, might even cause a panic.

I didn't expect all this to come together this quickly but honestly I'm not surprised either. We are a good bellwether here in NEO and things aren't looking good.

Housing market is helping prop everything up but that's not gonna last much longer either.
 

Nape

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I'd agree.

Market is going to continue to drop and the jump in prices, coupled with what Powell said, might even cause a panic.

I didn't expect all this to come together this quickly but honestly I'm not surprised either. We are a good bellwether here in NEO and things aren't looking good.

Housing market is helping prop everything up but that's not gonna last much longer either.
Houses in my hood are on the market for 2-4 days and fetching 5-15% over ask. That’s a product of the shit show happening in the city and people fleeing said show. As I said in another post, a house two doors down sold in a day for $60k over asking and was a cash deal. The amount of $$$ leaving the city is breathtaking.
 

America 1st

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Houses in my hood are on the market for 2-4 days and fetching 5-15% over ask. That’s a product of the shit show happening in the city and people fleeing said show. As I said in another post, a house two doors down sold in a day for $60k over asking and was a cash deal. The amount of $$$ leaving the city is breathtaking.
Writing is on the wall. Businesses and people don't want anything to do with that shit anymore.

It's just not sustainable though on the housing front.

I don't see how any of this is going to work come Aug 15.
 

Nape

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Writing is on the wall. Businesses and people don't want anything to do with that shit anymore.

It's just not sustainable though on the housing front.

I don't see how any of this is going to work come Aug 15.
Agree. It’s all a factor of the moment. I’ve had 3 realtors contact us the last week asking if we’d be interested in selling. It’s fucking surreal.

We have our place in Naples and are locked and ready to go. We built our house here in 1998 and it’s paid for. If someone wants to tickle my fancy I might just scratch it. I have 2 ex-BP colleagues who are a SVP and a VP with a large fuel supplier in Miami and they are trying to bring me on in a senior role. I’ve always been my own boss and am not excited to work for “the man” but they need help and I can name my terms. Who knows what is in store.
 

tgsio

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I do! My next door neighbor’s son is a FR at UD. We are planning a golf trip in May to NCR and then over to Scioto. His boy is my younger boys age. Should be a doozie. Would love to buy ya a good bourbon if you’ll allow it.
When in May? I've got one graduating grad school (ASU), one graduating UD (who just got her top of the wish list job offer today. They created a position for her! So proud of this girl) and one graduating from Oakwood. All within 3 weeks of each other.

Hell, if nothing else, if the date lines up, pop over for the 5 high school seniors grad party that I have been informed we are hosting (per usual. That's what you get when you have 4 kids who are 4th generation to go through. Wouldn't have it any other way, if I'm being honest). You have a pretty good idea where I live. Just look for the tent in the front yard. 🤣 And yes... there will be a bartender for a high school grad party. It is Oakwood.

If you want to play DCC, let me know. Though you should be able to play without my help as DCC and NCR are reciprocal. But still. And don't be surprised if you run into Max. He's been out all but one day this week with his buddies. The only one good thing that came from this covid shitshow...Max had time to focus on his golf game... and got his best friend to play.




***His friend's grandfather is a member at Augusta and quietly hated that none of them would play with him. The kid (who now towers over me, but then overachieving midgets can say the same) got a hole in one a few weeks ago and has been hooked since May. There's a reason Max is always invited on vacations with Gramps. *not what he answers to and the gentleman is pretty cool for other reasons than being a member of Augusta.


(I'm still convinced that you and my husband have mutual friends)
 
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Nape

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When in May? I've got one graduating grad school (ASU), one graduating UD (who just got her top of the wish list job offer today. They created a position for her! So proud of this girl) and one graduating from Oakwood. All within 3 weeks of each other.

Hell, if nothing else, if the date lines up, pop over for the 5 high school seniors grad party that I have been informed we are hosting (per usual. That's what you get when you have 4 kids who are 4th generation to go through. Wouldn't have it any other way, if I'm being honest). You have a pretty good idea where I live. Just look for the tent in the front yard. 🤣 And yes... there will be a bartender for a high school grad party. It is Oakwood.

If you want to play DCC, let me know. Though you should be able to play without my help as DCC and NCR are reciprocal.


(I'm still convinced that you and my husband have mutual friends)
My son graduates from North Central College (defending D3 national champs in hut hut) May 9th. We are trying to plan for the week before Memorial Day (May 25th is our 25th anniversary, so I can’t miss that one) or maybe the first week in June. We have a 25th/graduation trip planned last week in June/first week of July so somewhere in there we will be down.
 

MaizeBlaze

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Complete dumbass here. But it sounds like dems are doing everything in their power to force us to electric? Cause enough pain at the pump that we beg for mercy.

I hope the soccer moms that voted for Biden because ‘Orange man bad’ enjoy filling up their Suburbans.
 

dirty0222

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Houses in my hood are on the market for 2-4 days and fetching 5-15% over ask. That’s a product of the shit show happening in the city and people fleeing said show. As I said in another post, a house two doors down sold in a day for $60k over asking and was a cash deal. The amount of $$$ leaving the city is breathtaking.


I've never seen anything like it. People just paying stupid money. We have no inventory here in SWFL. There were 7 homes for sale priced between $275k-$335k and built since 2000 in my neck of the woods. That is insane!
 

UNC71-00

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We are a wholesale fuel jobber in Chicagoland. We supply regular, premium, ULSD #2 diesel, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and E85. We have agreements with the two largest refiners in Chicago, BP and ExxonMobile. Chicago has multiple refineries and a maze of pipelines supplying this market and the surrounding areas. There is never a shortage of fuel in our area, be it in terminals, on pipelines, or on coaster barges.

With that being said, we have had a fucking hair pulling experience the last few weeks getting barrels to supply to our customers. It’s almost like someone shut off the tap. We could pull 50,000 gallons of regular, 20,000 gallons of premium, and 30,000 gallons of E85 a day and our suppliers wouldn’t even blink. Those volumes are a drop in the bucket for them. The last 7 business days we have been denied barrels at the terminal rack, told that our allocation (gallons earmarked for us) was not approved, and forced to find gallons elsewhere. Something’s fucked up and I’ve never seen anything like it. I have an idea what’s going on but in a backwardated market it is in my supplier’s best interest to move their distillate ASAP.

Bottom line? Prices have risen 60-80% in the last few months and its only getting worse.

What is your idea about what is going on?
 

Nape

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What is your idea about what is going on?
I think it’s been a perfect storm of issues.

—the freeze in TX causing refining issues
—turnaround, which is when refineries switch from making winter blend to summer blend, is leaving markets under supplied.
—falling dollar. RBOB is a dollar denominated commodity. All else being equal, as the $$ drops the price of RBOB must rise to keep the value the same
—specs in the futures market because of government policy......net length has increased many fold since 11/3
—seasonality...gas always gets a bid coming out of winter and into spring.
 

Nape

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I think it’s been a perfect storm of issues.

—the freeze in TX causing refining issues
—turnaround, which is when refineries switch from making winter blend to summer blend, is leaving markets under supplied.
—falling dollar. RBOB is a dollar denominated commodity. All else being equal, as the $$ drops the price of RBOB must rise to keep the value the same
—specs in the futures market because of government policy......net length has increased many fold since 11/3
—seasonality...gas always gets a bid coming out of winter and into spring.
Just read that last week saw the lowest refinery utilization number since 1990.....56%. That’s fucking insane. That number is typically in the high 80s to mid 90s, depending on the crack spread (amount they pay for crude vs what they can sell the products for).
 

Jayhacker

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Complete dumbass here. But it sounds like dems are doing everything in their power to force us to electric? Cause enough pain at the pump that we beg for mercy.

I hope the soccer moms that voted for Biden because ‘Orange man bad’ enjoy filling up their Suburbans.
And I hope the mental breakdowns are in the near future from putting up with 3 screaming kids who can't go to school.
 

Jtrain80

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Thx Biden voters, u fucking twats

Biden didn't get more votes, he was installed. Technically not their faults.

Complete dumbass here. But it sounds like dems are doing everything in their power to force us to electric? Cause enough pain at the pump that we beg for mercy.

I hope the soccer moms that voted for Biden because ‘Orange man bad’ enjoy filling up their Suburbans.

If the people causing this knew before what their plan was, they could place their bets accordingly. All they need is movement either way. The higher the volatility the better.

@Nape Great insight. How is the unrefined market? Is cushing and similar still full?
 

America 1st

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Agree. It’s all a factor of the moment. I’ve had 3 realtors contact us the last week asking if we’d be interested in selling. It’s fucking surreal.

We have our place in Naples and are locked and ready to go. We built our house here in 1998 and it’s paid for. If someone wants to tickle my fancy I might just scratch it. I have 2 ex-BP colleagues who are a SVP and a VP with a large fuel supplier in Miami and they are trying to bring me on in a senior role. I’ve always been my own boss and am not excited to work for “the man” but they need help and I can name my terms. Who knows what is in store.
 

CDDP

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Good. I want the retards that voted to weaken America to feel the pain. Fuel prices going up is basically a national sales tax increase
 

hmt5000

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$5 by summer. I think Biden is more incompetent than I originally thought. It seems he has filled that admin with people who hate this country with a passion and see it as their duty to take us down a peg or 2. The fact they are talking about still having covid rules even after the vaccine shows that they just don't give a fuck.
 

America 1st

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Good. I want the retards that voted to weaken America to feel the pain. Fuel prices going up is basically a national sales tax increase
Half of them don't drive let.

Another quarter can't afford a vehicle.
 

4n6tox

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I've never seen anything like it. People just paying stupid money. We have no inventory here in SWFL. There were 7 homes for sale priced between $275k-$335k and built since 2000 in my neck of the woods. That is insane!

It's completely off the rails. I've been considering another opportunity and looking at the market. Average ass 3000K sq ft newer builds are 500-750K in Johnson County, KS. Not somewhere incredibly desirable, but KANSAS.
 

America 1st

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Well, there unemployment/stimmy money won't go as far at the store then. Mass inflation might be the only thing to wake people up for the midterms.
They'll blame their food stamps not going as far on orange man somehow; likely cuz he didn't stop the Wuhan Charlie by wearing his mask.

They'll just want more checks.
 

CDDP

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It's completely off the rails. I've been considering another opportunity and looking at the market. Average ass 3000K sq ft newer builds are 500-750K in Johnson County, KS. Not somewhere incredibly desirable, but KANSAS.
St. Louis suburbs homes are selling fast. Prices don't make much sense.

Friend of mine lives near Lake of the Ozarks and was telling me (last August/September) a ton of people are moving out there from Cali, Denver and other blue states. Not good.
 

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