Master Thread Stonks/Options/Investing - come build your tfsf yolo stock portfolio

[shiv]

Seems that monthly average users and daily average users both did not meet growth targets of 5%. I dont really follow the stock that much but it must have been a big miss because the stock is getting hit. Wonder what the price action will be like. If AMZN misses after the close tomorrow watch out below. Could mean economic weakness as opposed to facebook weakeness.

That being said, I think this is more related to FB sucking than economic weakness. FB is losing its coolness quickly it seems. People are waking up to why Zuckerberg is one of the worlds richest men. Because everyone is giving them their data for free. Eventually people are going to wake up and realize that is worth something and stop giving it away for free.

Have we reached peak facebook? Probably not, dont think its going anywhere quickly but it wouldn't hurt my feelings if FB's best days were behind it.

View attachment 75959

I fuckin hate Amazon but I just can’t quit it because it’s so easy. Talk about a monopoly

 

[ChicagoFats]

Yeah a 20% move is a huge move. Working on some options analysis and ill get it in another post.

 

[America 1st]

What does everyone else think is the cause of FB missing earnings so badly? Other than the obvious that its a drain on society?

I’m surprised there run lasted as long as it did.

If they can turn the meta into the advertising scheme most people think it could bee then they might survive. Otherwise they will start to implode.

 

[ChicagoFats]

The expected move was ~$24 and it is now down 75 so that is a 2 standard deviation move. Big move.

Nasdaq is down 2.3% after the close and the broader S&p 500 is down 1% right now.

 

[ChicagoFats]

To get the expected move you take the midpoint of at-the-money options and add them together. The stock was trading at $323 to we can use the $325 strike options.

The call is worth $11 and the put is worth $13.45. Added together we have $24.45 as an expected move.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Find it interesting that the privacy changes that Apple made are affecting Facebook profitability. Tells us how much shit Zuckerberg was / is taking from his users.

 

[shiv]

Yeah a 20% move is a huge move. Working on some options analysis and ill get it in another post.


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The expected move was ~$24 and it is now down 75 so that is a 2 standard deviation move. Big move.

Nasdaq is down 2.3% after the close and the broader S&p 500 is down 1% right now.



View attachment 75965

To get the expected move you take the midpoint of at-the-money options and add them together. The stock was trading at $323 to we can use the $325 strike options.

The call is worth $11 and the put is worth $13.45. Added together we have $24.45 as an expected move.

Hell yeah, been waiting for some options coaching! Is there a sector you focus on?

 

[ChicagoFats]

Hell yeah, been waiting for some options coaching! Is there a sector you focus on?

The Vix, or Volatiliy Index, is what i trade for my dayjob.

The Vix is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500 index. See below. It takes the mid-point of every options price and runs them through a formula to get a weighted-average which produces the VIX calculation.

Since options can be used to imply volatility, the Vix is sometimes called a 30-day forecast on volatility. Lower Vix = lower expected volatility, higher Vix = higher expected volatility.

Vix is trading $23 right now.

 

[shiv]

Are you trading vix daily?

 

[quickfeet]

Yeah a 20% move is a huge move. Working on some options analysis and ill get it in another post.


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Facebook collapse is holding

 

[quickfeet]

Amazon is getting hit pretty hard today as well, but its been covered up by Facebook losses

 

[ChicagoFats]

Are you trading vix daily?

I market make and or trade vix options all day long. So if you go to trade an option on the vix and buy or sell something, there is a chance we trade with each other. Im a small player compared to some of the billion dollar hedge funds that we compete against but do run quoting algorithms, auction algorithms etc. I think an "options dealer" is the correct technical term.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Amazon is getting hit pretty hard today as well, but its been covered up by Facebook losses

AMZN earning after the close. If they miss its not a good sign for the economy and coupled with FB's big miss. If they have good earnings, maybe it just means its a FB problem and not a bad sign for the economy at whole. Its a big number after the close

 

[shiv]

Our media add on makes it really easy to embed charts from trading view. And they are interactive as well

 

[ChicagoFats]

Our media add on makes it really easy to embed charts from trading view. And they are interactive as well

Nice. I did not know about tradingview but will start using it now. That is a nice feature.

 

[ChicagoFats]

edit:

How do i embed a chart @croot_lord ?

 

[ChicagoFats]

We have AMZN earnings after the close today. Trading rigth around $2815 now, already down about 6% on the day, perhaps anticipating a down move after Meta's earnings miss yesterday.





We can see that the straddle price (call + put) is ~$240 for Friday afternoons expiration.

240 / 2800 = 8.5% (if you divide that by 2 you are close to the 4.8% move they are talking about. See the actual prices where they derived the information from below.

Options trader bets Amazon will be the next tech titan to tumble on earnings

One options trader is betting that Amazon will be the latest tech titan to disappoint when the company's earnings report crosses the wire Thursday afternoon.

www.cnbc.com

 

[shiv]

Find it interesting that the privacy changes that Apple made are affecting Facebook profitability. Tells us how much shit Zuckerberg was / is taking from his users.


View attachment 76056

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[ChicagoFats]

Market is JITTERY before AMZN numbers. Due out in about 15 minutes

 

[shiv]

Market is JITTERY before AMZN numbers. Due out in about 15 minutes

Let's say AMZN gets hammered, how bad is it for everything else (very open ended question)

 

[shiv]

The Vix, or Volatiliy Index, is what i trade for my dayjob.

The Vix is calculated using option prices on the S&P 500 index. See below. It takes the mid-point of every options price and runs them through a formula to get a weighted-average which produces the VIX calculation.

Since options can be used to imply volatility, the Vix is sometimes called a 30-day forecast on volatility. Lower Vix = lower expected volatility, higher Vix = higher expected volatility.

Vix is trading $23 right now.

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Do you mostly put your trust in algorithms for your trades?

 

[shiv]

I saw an article about the tax bill that is going to hit some of these meme stock traders. Guarenteed most of that crowd has blown their $$ on stupid shit and are not going to know what hit em when they see what short terms capital gains tax means

 

[ChicagoFats]

AMZN crushes it!

 

[shiv]

AMZN crushes it!


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Crazy swings on HUGE stocks the last two days

 

[ChicagoFats]

Do you mostly put your trust in algorithms for your trades?

No, i lease software that is really powerful, but in turbulent times I still can't keep up with the billion dollar hedge funds. In normal market conditions we do run algorithms all day and can stay competitive. We run algorithms to post quotes, respond to spread auctions, and scour the market looking for trades according to certain parameters. If it finds those parameters it will automatically send and execute a trade (popularly known as an "electronic eye" algo)

All the algorithms are important, but determining the value of the options is probably the most important and hardest part. This is done by manipulating a mathematical model that comes with the software.

 

[shiv]

No, i lease software that is really powerful, but in turbulent times I still can't keep up with the billion dollar hedge funds. In normal market conditions we do run algorithms all day and can stay competitive. We run algorithms to post quotes, respond to spread auctions, and scour the market looking for trades according to certain parameters. If it finds those parameters it will automatically send and execute a trade (popularly known as an "electronic eye" algo)

All the algorithms are important, but determining the value of the options is probably the most important and hardest part. This is done by manipulating a mathematical model that comes with the software.

Interesting that you lease the software.

What do you mean by powerful?
What is it called?
Are there other competitors in that market (as in similar software products)?

 

[quickfeet]

Fuck yeah, glad to see this thread bumping again. I’ve been wanting to lose some money

 

[ChicagoFats]

Interesting that you lease the software.

What do you mean by powerful?
What is it called?
Are there other competitors in that market (as in similar software products)?

Powerful in that it can do a lot of shit fast.

I use Itiviti. There are several competitors and the big hedge funds have their own in house software.

Itiviti
Options City
Rivals trading
Actant

There are tons out there. Kind of depends on what you specialize in.

I liken the software to a big toolbox. You rent the tools and they drop it on your desk. It’s your job to figure out what the tools do and how to use them etc

 

[shiv]

Powerful in that it can do a lot of shit fast.

I use Itiviti. There are several competitors and the big hedge funds have their own in house software.

Itiviti
Options City
Rivals trading
Actant

There are tons out there. Kind of depends on what you specialize in.

I liken the software to a big toolbox. You rent the tools and they drop it on your desk. It’s your job to figure out what the tools do and how to use them etc

Rivals???? (kidding)

What kind of costs to lease?

 

[Oler Ted]

What is our meme/yolo/moon stock we are going to buy. Come on, we got to get in on one for the emotional roller coaster

 

[ChicagoFats]

Rivals???? (kidding)

What kind of costs to lease?

Costs depend on so many factors but we can call it about $10-$15k a month.

 

[shiv]

Costs depend on so many factors but we can call it about $10-$15k a month.

I was thinking it must be steep based on how you described it. How much do results depend on hardware? Do you have IT support?

 

[ChicagoFats]

I was thinking it must be steep based on how you described it. How much do results depend on hardware? Do you have IT support?

There are so many different strategies. Some people specialize in solely the speed game and concentrate on just that. I can compete on speed in certain situations, but that’s not our bread and butter.

But speed is somewhat probablistic and not deterministic. That is the same computer won’t win the race every time

$10-15 just gets you the software, then you have to get to the expensive stuff like market data and connections to the exchanges etc.

But the software comes with full time support but the help is mainly for back end server stuff. I just deal with the front end and they take care of the back end.

 

[shiv]

A little more perspective on the FB collapse

 

[ChicagoFats]

A little more perspective on the FB collapse View attachment 76154

I wonder if Cuckerburg will take the cucking from Apple lying down, or will he soon try to compete with apple by issuing a facebook phone? After all a big reason they misssed earning was apples ability to cut facebook off from data from the phones.

 

[ChicagoFats]

View attachment 76083

We have AMZN earnings after the close today. Trading rigth around $2815 now, already down about 6% on the day, perhaps anticipating a down move after Meta's earnings miss yesterday.

View attachment 76080



We can see that the straddle price (call + put) is ~$240 for Friday afternoons expiration.

240 / 2800 = 8.5% (if you divide that by 2 you are close to the 4.8% move they are talking about. See the actual prices where they derived the information from below.


View attachment 76082

Options trader bets Amazon will be the next tech titan to tumble on earnings

One options trader is betting that Amazon will be the latest tech titan to disappoint when the company's earnings report crosses the wire Thursday afternoon.

www.cnbc.com

AMZN settling down around the $3100 area which is about a $300-$325 move or higher than the $240 predicted. The long option holders are the winners here.

The guy that bought the 2700-2800 put spread for $14 saw his spread drop to a value of $0 and he lost all his premium ($625k)

 

[quickfeet]

What is our meme/yolo/moon stock we are going to buy. Come on, we got to get in on one for the emotional roller coaster

I propose AGI

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/agi?mod=quote_search

 

[ChicagoFats]

@quickfeet, give us some details on why you like the stonk.

 

[quickfeet]

@quickfeet, give us some details on why you like the stonk.

-EV/EBITDA = 5.66 (below 10 is generally considered undervalued)
-Price/Book = 1.2 so you barely are paying over book value
-They have basically no debt across the board
-I feel at some point gold mining companies will moon because gold prices have not seemed to tracked at all with inflation recently

 

[ChicagoFats]

-EV/EBITDA = 5.66 (below 10 is generally considered undervalued)
-Price/Book = 1.2 so you barely are paying over book value
-They have basically no debt across the board
-I feel at some point gold mining companies will moon because gold prices have not seemed to tracked at all with inflation recently

All good points. Maybe gold will have its day soon. But i'm one of those crazy people that think BTC competes with gold. Im afraid future investments which would have traditionally been allocated to gold may slowly make their way digital.