All Is Well
The BLS released their preliminary revisions from April 2022 to March 2023, and in total it showed that they overstated job gains by over 300k. That means on average they overstated job gains by 25,000 per month or almost 9%.
Remember, once a report is released, it is then revised the following two months, then has this preliminary revision like we got today, and then a final revision. What is a bit maddening is that initial thoughts on a Jobs report could be correct, but the initially reported figure could be much stronger due to inaccuracies with things like the birth/death model.
It’s only after the revisions that we find out the numbers were much lower, but the market does not react to it because it’s in the past and only really reacts to the headline.
We do see a trend of the labor market getting weaker and we hope that the Sep 1 jobs report is weak, as that is likely what it will take for the Fed to stop hiking.
We are seeing weakness reported in earnings calls from companies like Target, Home Depot, and Lowes, all stating that demand for big ticket purchases are down and that the consumer is spending less.