Ukraine is getting tanks. Leopard 2 A6 from Germany/Europe and Abrams from us (plus Bradley Fighting Vehicles). Ukraine is going to have tank superiority over Russia, not in numbers but in range, power, and armor.
Russia has lost a lot of manpower this winter but has not gained much territory at all. Throwing bodies at a military target is a Russian tradition so nothing new, but they are losing thousands for what amounts to football fields here and there. Mostly conscripted prisoners serving with Wagner Group, but it's manpower they need nonetheless. Russia will need another round of mobilization, at least 500k, if they plan to mount a serious offensive this Spring.
Experts think Ukraine will try to retake Crimea in a few months. Without a significant Russian mobilization, and soon, I think Ukraine will be successful with their new NATO firepower. Russian supply lines would be cut in half, not something Russia is in a great position to overcome.
One thing people in the general public are not aware of that I mentioned earlier: NATO countries have been training Ukrainian troops. All this new equipment takes months to learn how to operate, not to mention the maintenance required. Especially the Abrams tanks. But military leadership was ahead of the approval - some 60k-ish Ukrainians have been training on this equipment this winter. This is why you see this equipment being shipped to Ukraine already, including spare parts. Ukraine is going to be ready to roll once the mud clears.
This is now a proxy war between Russia and NATO. It will be interesting to see how Russia responds because I think they're going to get their ass kicked. And they'll have a new NATO supported power on their borders. The internal battle between the conventional Russian military command and Wagner should be entertaining to watch, that internal struggle for power has already caused battlefield delays and missed opportunities.
There's some analysis for you
@Jtrain80
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