Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

Master Threads
ShaolinNole said:
I am late to the game with Grok. Ive had a paid sub for ChatGPT since it launched. But I am really liking the output from grok for research. Fuck now I’ve probably gotta pay $40 a month for this.

Let’s revisit the first hypothesis—that the Trump administration is intentionally attempting to bankrupt the US dollar to eliminate the national debt—and analyze the implications of incorporating Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683) and the related context about the Senate and House budget resolutions. This post highlights the concern that both chambers have passed budget bills ignoring the deficit, potentially exacerbating the national debt crisis and aligning with a strategy of fiscal irresponsibility that could support dollar devaluation. Here’s how this impacts the original hypothesis and the broader analysis.
Assuming the US dollar retains its reserve currency status in all cases—despite the Trump administration’s hypothetical strategy to bankrupt the dollar and the fiscal recklessness highlighted in Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683)—significantly alters the analysis. This assumption implies that, no matter how aggressively the administration pursues devaluation (via massive deficits, money printing, or low interest rates), global markets and economies will continue to rely on the dollar as the primary currency for international trade, reserves, and debt settlement. Let’s revisit the implications for the original hypothesis, timeline, and investment strategy under this constraint.
Revised Assumptions and Implications
  • Dollar’s Reserve Status Intact: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, with central banks, governments, and institutions holding it in large quantities (e.g., $6.4 trillion in foreign reserves as of 2024, per IMF data). Global reliance on the dollar for trade (e.g., oil priced in USD) and $14 trillion in offshore dollar-denominated debt (per BitDegree) ensures its status, even under severe devaluation pressure.
  • Limits on Devaluation: The administration’s attempt to “bankrupt” the dollar to erase the national debt would face natural constraints. A collapsing dollar would initially trigger sell-offs, but the Milkshake Theory dynamics—global capital flowing back to the dollar for safety—would prevent a permanent loss of reserve status. The dollar might weaken temporarily (e.g., DXY dropping below 90), but it would rebound due to its systemic importance.
  • Fiscal Policy Impact: The Senate and House budget resolutions (ignoring deficits, potentially adding $515 billion+ to deficits over 10 years) would still drive inflation and short-term dollar weakness, but the dollar’s reserve status would stabilize it long-term, limiting the “bankruptcy” strategy’s success.
  • Inflation and Market Response: Inflation could spike (e.g., 5-15% annually) due to deficits and money supply growth, but the dollar’s reserve status would attract capital inflows, mitigating extreme devaluation and supporting US assets.
Implications for the Original Hypothesis
  1. Devaluation Strategy Limited
    • The administration’s goal to bankrupt the dollar to eliminate the $36 trillion national debt becomes less feasible. While deficits and inflation could erode the debt’s real value, the dollar’s reserve status ensures it can’t collapse entirely. Global demand would pull it back, preventing hyperinflation or a loss of purchasing power sufficient to “zero out” the debt.
    • Instead, the strategy might achieve partial debt reduction through moderate inflation (e.g., 5-10% annually), but the dollar would remain functional as a reserve currency, limiting the extent of devaluation.
  2. Timeline Adjustment
    • Phase One (Devaluation): Still begins in Q1 2025 with aggressive deficit spending and monetary expansion. However, the dollar’s reserve status caps the devaluation, keeping DXY above, say, 85-90. Phase One lasts 12-18 months, ending by Q3 2026 (July-September 2026), as inflation pressures build and global markets adjust.
    • Phase Two (Milkshake Rally): Starts sooner, around Q2 2026 (April-June 2026), as global capital flows back to the dollar due to its reserve status and safety, even amidst US fiscal chaos. The rally is stronger and more sustained because the dollar’s status ensures long-term demand, compressing the devaluation phase.
  3. Reduced Risk of Reserve Status Loss
    • With reserve status guaranteed, there’s no risk of de-dollarization (e.g., BRICS nations abandoning the dollar for trade). This eliminates long-term threats to US assets and reinforces the Milkshake effect, making US equities, bonds, and real estate more attractive long-term.
  4. Inflation Management
    • The Fed would likely intervene with rate hikes or tapering to control inflation (e.g., targeting 2-3% CPI), ensuring the dollar remains stable. This could temper devaluation but accelerate the Milkshake rally as higher US rates attract foreign capital.
Revised Investment Strategy
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the portfolio shifts toward US-centric assets sooner, as the risk of a permanent dollar collapse diminishes. The focus remains on hedging short-term inflation and devaluation while positioning for a robust Milkshake rally. Here’s the adjusted macro portfolio breakdown:
  • Gold and Precious Metals: 15% (down from 25%)
    • Rationale: Still a hedge against initial inflation and dollar weakness, but less critical long-term with the dollar’s reserve status intact.
    • Example: 10% gold, 5% silver.
  • Commodities: 10% (down from 20%)
    • Rationale: Less exposure needed as dollar weakness is temporary and offset by reserve status; focus on short-term inflation plays.
    • Example: 5% oil/energy, 5% agriculture.
  • Foreign Equities: 5% (down from 5%)
    • Rationale: Minimal exposure due to dollar strength and Milkshake effect hurting non-US markets; focus on defensive markets (e.g., Japan, Switzerland).
    • Example: 3% Japan, 2% Switzerland.
  • Cryptocurrencies: 10% (down from 15%)
    • Rationale: Reduced need for fiat currency hedges with dollar stability; still a high-upside play but less critical.
    • Example: 7% Bitcoin, 3% Ethereum.
  • Real Estate: 20% (unchanged)
    • Rationale: US real estate thrives in inflation and benefits from dollar strength; maintain international exposure minimally.
    • Example: 15% US REITs, 5% international REITs.
  • US Equities: 30% (up from 20%)
    • Rationale: Stronger position for Milkshake-driven capital inflows and dollar stability; focus on growth and dividend-paying stocks.
    • Example: 20% tech/growth ETFs (e.g., QQQ), 10% value/dividend ETFs (e.g., SCHD).
  • Foreign Currencies/Cash: 5% (down from 3%)
    • Rationale: Limited need for currency diversification; maintain Swiss Franc or cash for liquidity.
    • Example: FXF ETF or cash equivalents.
  • US Treasury Bonds (Short-Term): 5% (new addition)
    • Rationale: Safe haven during devaluation, with potential gains if the Fed hikes rates; short-term to avoid long-term inflation risk.
    • Example: 2-year or 5-year Treasuries.
Strategic Rationale
  • Short-Term (Devaluation Phase, Q1 2025–Q3 2026): Focus on gold, commodities, and crypto to hedge inflation and mild dollar weakness, but with reduced exposure since the dollar won’t collapse.
  • Long-Term (Milkshake Rally, Q2 2026 onward): Tilt heavily toward US equities, real estate, and short-term bonds, capitalizing on dollar strength and global capital inflows.
  • Safety and Opportunity: The dollar’s reserve status ensures stability, reducing risk to US assets while offering growth from Milkshake dynamics.
Risks to Monitor
  • Inflation Overshoot: Even with reserve status, deficits could drive inflation above 10%, hurting fixed-income assets unless the Fed acts decisively.
  • Market Whiplash: Short-term dollar sell-offs followed by rapid rallies could create volatility, requiring active portfolio adjustments.
  • Policy Missteps: If the administration overextends deficits (e.g., $3+ trillion annually), inflation could test the dollar’s stability, even with reserve status.
Final Thoughts on the Hypothesis
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the administration’s devaluation strategy is constrained to moderate inflation (5-10%) rather than “bankrupting” the dollar. The national debt’s real value would erode partially, but the dollar’s global role prevents a full collapse. The timeline accelerates slightly, and the investment strategy pivots to US assets earlier and more aggressively. This assumption makes the Milkshake rally more certain and robust, solidifying the dollar’s dominance while limiting devaluation risks.
Does this align with your perspective, or would you like to explore specific adjustments or scenarios further?
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AI was made for smart people to ask awesome questions. I just use it to dunk on people dumber than me...LOL
 
MortgageHorn said:
images

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1740253473084.gif
 
OPD77 said:
The Pope is about to die...I think he may already be dead, there just getting ready for the media blitz.
Good riddance you pedophile...antiChrist waiting in the wings to take his place. JMHO
Have a great Saturday Patriots !
Click to expand...
Wasn't the last pope supposed to be the last pope before the church was taken over by evil?

The Fatima Prophecy refers to a series of apocalyptic visions and prophecies reportedly given by the Virgin Mary to three young Portuguese shepherds—Lúcia Santos and her cousins Jacinta and Francisco Marto—in 1917. These events took place in Fatima, Portugal, starting on May 13, 1917, and are collectively known as the "Three Secrets of Fatima." Here's an overview based on widely accepted accounts:
The apparitions occurred over six months, with Mary appearing to the children on the 13th of each month. She identified herself as "Our Lady of the Rosary" and delivered messages emphasizing prayer, penance, and devotion to her Immaculate Heart as a means to achieve peace and the salvation of souls. The prophecies were revealed in stages by Lúcia, the sole survivor of the three visionaries, who later became a nun and documented them in her memoirs.
  1. First Secret: Revealed in 1941, this was a vision of Hell. Lúcia described seeing a "sea of fire" beneath the earth, with demons and souls suffering in torment. Mary reportedly showed this to underscore the consequences of sin and the urgent need for repentance.
  2. Second Secret: Also disclosed in 1941, it predicted the end of World War I (ongoing at the time of the apparitions) but warned of a worse war if humanity did not repent. This is widely interpreted as foretelling World War II, which began in 1939. Mary also requested the consecration of Russia to her Immaculate Heart and devotion to the Communion of Reparation on the First Saturdays, promising that if these were heeded, Russia would be converted, and peace would follow. She cautioned that failure to do so would lead Russia to "spread her errors" (often linked to the rise of Communism), causing wars and persecution of the Church.
  3. Third Secret: Written down by Lúcia in 1944 at the request of the Bishop of Leiria, it remained sealed until its release by the Vatican in 2000. It described a vision of a "bishop dressed in white" being killed by soldiers, alongside other clergy and laypeople, amid a ruined city. The Vatican, supported by commentary from then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI), interpreted this as a symbolic representation of 20th-century persecutions of the Church, with a specific connection to the 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II, which occurred on May 13—the anniversary of the first Fatima apparition. However, some skeptics and traditionalists argue the full secret has not been disclosed, speculating it might predict a greater crisis or apostasy within the Church, though no definitive evidence supports this.
The apparitions culminated in the "Miracle of the Sun" on October 13, 1917, witnessed by a crowd of about 70,000. Reports describe the sun appearing to "dance" or move erratically, an event the Catholic Church deemed "worthy of belief" in 1930. Fatima has since become a major pilgrimage site, drawing millions annually.
 
hmt5000 said:
Wasn't the last pope supposed to be the last pope before the church was taken over by evil?

The Fatima Prophecy refers to a series of apocalyptic visions and prophecies reportedly given by the Virgin Mary to three young Portuguese shepherds—Lúcia Santos and her cousins Jacinta and Francisco Marto—in 1917. These events took place in Fatima, Portugal, starting on May 13, 1917, and are collectively known as the "Three Secrets of Fatima." Here's an overview based on widely accepted accounts:
The apparitions occurred over six months, with Mary appearing to the children on the 13th of each month. She identified herself as "Our Lady of the Rosary" and delivered messages emphasizing prayer, penance, and devotion to her Immaculate Heart as a means to achieve peace and the salvation of souls. The prophecies were revealed in stages by Lúcia, the sole survivor of the three visionaries, who later became a nun and documented them in her memoirs.
  1. First Secret: Revealed in 1941, this was a vision of Hell. Lúcia described seeing a "sea of fire" beneath the earth, with demons and souls suffering in torment. Mary reportedly showed this to underscore the consequences of sin and the urgent need for repentance.
  2. Second Secret: Also disclosed in 1941, it predicted the end of World War I (ongoing at the time of the apparitions) but warned of a worse war if humanity did not repent. This is widely interpreted as foretelling World War II, which began in 1939. Mary also requested the consecration of Russia to her Immaculate Heart and devotion to the Communion of Reparation on the First Saturdays, promising that if these were heeded, Russia would be converted, and peace would follow. She cautioned that failure to do so would lead Russia to "spread her errors" (often linked to the rise of Communism), causing wars and persecution of the Church.
  3. Third Secret: Written down by Lúcia in 1944 at the request of the Bishop of Leiria, it remained sealed until its release by the Vatican in 2000. It described a vision of a "bishop dressed in white" being killed by soldiers, alongside other clergy and laypeople, amid a ruined city. The Vatican, supported by commentary from then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI), interpreted this as a symbolic representation of 20th-century persecutions of the Church, with a specific connection to the 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II, which occurred on May 13—the anniversary of the first Fatima apparition. However, some skeptics and traditionalists argue the full secret has not been disclosed, speculating it might predict a greater crisis or apostasy within the Church, though no definitive evidence supports this.
The apparitions culminated in the "Miracle of the Sun" on October 13, 1917, witnessed by a crowd of about 70,000. Reports describe the sun appearing to "dance" or move erratically, an event the Catholic Church deemed "worthy of belief" in 1930. Fatima has since become a major pilgrimage site, drawing millions annually.
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The next one is the last.
 


The White House intergovernmental affairs director reiterated Trump's message to all the gubernatorial chiefs of staff that they needed to follow the law & protect women's sports in a meeting. Everyone understood except the Maine governor's chief of staff, who got up and screamed, "F*CK YOU A*SHOLE," and stormed out of the meeting. - Via
@MaryMargOlohan
President Trump really hit a tremendous nerve yesterday. All the demons in Maine are triggered.
 
hmt5000 said:
Wasn't the last pope supposed to be the last pope before the church was taken over by evil?

The Fatima Prophecy refers to a series of apocalyptic visions and prophecies reportedly given by the Virgin Mary to three young Portuguese shepherds—Lúcia Santos and her cousins Jacinta and Francisco Marto—in 1917. These events took place in Fatima, Portugal, starting on May 13, 1917, and are collectively known as the "Three Secrets of Fatima." Here's an overview based on widely accepted accounts:
The apparitions occurred over six months, with Mary appearing to the children on the 13th of each month. She identified herself as "Our Lady of the Rosary" and delivered messages emphasizing prayer, penance, and devotion to her Immaculate Heart as a means to achieve peace and the salvation of souls. The prophecies were revealed in stages by Lúcia, the sole survivor of the three visionaries, who later became a nun and documented them in her memoirs.
  1. First Secret: Revealed in 1941, this was a vision of Hell. Lúcia described seeing a "sea of fire" beneath the earth, with demons and souls suffering in torment. Mary reportedly showed this to underscore the consequences of sin and the urgent need for repentance.
  2. Second Secret: Also disclosed in 1941, it predicted the end of World War I (ongoing at the time of the apparitions) but warned of a worse war if humanity did not repent. This is widely interpreted as foretelling World War II, which began in 1939. Mary also requested the consecration of Russia to her Immaculate Heart and devotion to the Communion of Reparation on the First Saturdays, promising that if these were heeded, Russia would be converted, and peace would follow. She cautioned that failure to do so would lead Russia to "spread her errors" (often linked to the rise of Communism), causing wars and persecution of the Church.
  3. Third Secret: Written down by Lúcia in 1944 at the request of the Bishop of Leiria, it remained sealed until its release by the Vatican in 2000. It described a vision of a "bishop dressed in white" being killed by soldiers, alongside other clergy and laypeople, amid a ruined city. The Vatican, supported by commentary from then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI), interpreted this as a symbolic representation of 20th-century persecutions of the Church, with a specific connection to the 1981 assassination attempt on Pope John Paul II, which occurred on May 13—the anniversary of the first Fatima apparition. However, some skeptics and traditionalists argue the full secret has not been disclosed, speculating it might predict a greater crisis or apostasy within the Church, though no definitive evidence supports this.
The apparitions culminated in the "Miracle of the Sun" on October 13, 1917, witnessed by a crowd of about 70,000. Reports describe the sun appearing to "dance" or move erratically, an event the Catholic Church deemed "worthy of belief" in 1930. Fatima has since become a major pilgrimage site, drawing millions annually.
Click to expand...
Interesting reading, Thanks for sharing.

My personal beliefis that the AC will come out of a revised Roman Empire which I believe could be Rome/Vatican/Catholic Church. At a minimum the next Pope could be the false prophet that could help broker a peace deal in Jerusalem and lead to the actual Beast coming onto the scene. If the next Pope or so called replacement is young and charasmatic watch out, things could get way more interesting very fast.

A couple of things I do know is Heaven and Hell are real, Jesus is the Son of God and Salvstion can only be achieved thru him and Godx word isn't a lie and tortellini these events.
 
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MortgageHorn said:
@Cyberty is this possible? If so probable? What evidence would it provide?
Click to expand...
Yes its done all the time.

It is just like the search engine spiders that crawl the internet and index all the websites. This data is used to provide accurate searches.

Additionally they are copying the data and keeping it. One example of this is the Wayback Machine.
https://web.archive.org/

With AI the searches are more comprehensive.

It assures that if there is evidence of a crime or misappropriation, it is conserved. Someone still has to know what to search for in order to discover.
 
I like the way he is thinking...


When those hit, you'll see a wave of resignations from the House and several in the Senate as well. When that runs its course, then Trump will have a strong majority in both chambers, and he can then achieve profound, historic reforms such as revoking the NFA (National Firearms Act), outlawing Big Pharma drug advertising, nationalizing the Fed, ending the IRS and other grand goals. He will need Congress, and Congress is about to see historic resignations. You'll soon see. Most Trump supporters still aren't thinking big enough about what's in store...
 
BamaRidger said:





I did NOTHING wrong unless you heard the Adam Schiff Version. He made up my conversation.He actually made it up. It should be criminal. It should be Treasonous."
Click to expand...

I believe what Trump is saying. However, it could be used by Schiff's lawyers as a defense if he were tried. And some federal judge or jury may actually rule it as a prejudicial statement and he can't be tried for treason.
 

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