Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

[orng_blud]

 

[MortgageHorn]

interesting thread.



I'm far from an expert here, but if I'm correctly interpreting this, they are going to use GME to bring down the stock market ahead of the election. My take is this is a white hat operation, as the stock market is one of the only remaining pillars that the average normie has any trust in, or rather, takes security in. The other side of that coin is continuing to press on the Clockwork Orange strategy, remove the last bastion of hope (nest eggs) and get people to take whatever globalist solution is offered as good enough. I hope its the former vs. the latter, but not sure.

Someone smarter and more educated on this topic should weigh-in, but it appears that someone(s) has quietly built a significant portfolio of call options and balanced that by owning enough shares of GME. This has put almost every hedge fund, who all have had short positions in GME due to the "fundamentals" in a losing position. In isolation, this wouldn't be that big of a deal, and happens more often than you realize, but this is slightly different. There are 2 major differences that could have very significant implications in this particular instance.

1. The spread on the calls vs. puts
2. The leverage ratio held by the hedge funds
3. Interest on borrowing debt

The GME/AMC noise a few years ago was the start. In normal market making trades, if a hedge fund misses on one stock by $2-3 (i.e put position at $18, call at $20-$21), the hedge fund loses the spread ($2-3), but typically can make that back and then some on another position, giving them a winning long-term strategy. The overall risk here is in the 10-15% range. In this instance, the calls are at $20, and many of those puts are <$5, meaning the risk here is in the 400-500% range. That is material.

Again, a few years ago, the macro environment at that point was still driven by pretty low interest rates, meaning that the hedge funds could borrow debt from banks at a much more reasonable rate. They, and every "fund" (i.e. private equity, venture capital, etc...) built their funds the same way; raise $100's of millions of private capital, and then use that capital as collateral to borrow debt at 5-10x leverage ratios, so that $100 million turned into $500million to $1B in "funds." The plan is to return 2.5-3X that fund (i.e. $1B returns $2.5-3B in funds) and you essentially use debt to give yourself the ability to make more money by taking more risk in more positions. With the rise in interest rates going from 2.5% to 7.5% (3X) the impact on hedge funds is amplified significantly, This is where it gets much more interesting on a broader perspective.

If this dude executes those calls, and he will, then the hedge funds are going to have to "sell" the stock to him at a 3:1 loss ratio (difference between $5 put and $20 call = $15; $15/5 = 3). Additionally, they are going to have to buy those shares in 1-2 ways

1. exit existing positions early - an absolute killer in the hedge fund world as timing is EVERYTHING
2. borrow debt at 3X the cost of what they borrowed.

So playing this all out. If a hedge fund has a $100M short position in GME, and you factor in all of these variables, for every $100M in short position they have they would pay $100M x 3 (loss ratio) x (5-7 leverage ratio) x 3 (interest rate spread) = $4.5-6B on this one trade. So instead of a standard ~20% risk they are taking 5000%. That makes the mortgage risk model from 2007 look downright conservative.

Most hedge funds have a position here, certainly all of the big ones. If they have to do this, it could literally kill all of them in one fell swoop, which would also bring the market down in a major crash because ALL of their positions would be exposed and increase in risk almost instantaneously.

@Hoosier in Mad Town

Is that your commentary or from the Tweet?

MH

 

[AgEngDawg]

Revelation 18:4 - Then I heard another voice from heaven saying, “Come out of her, my people, lest you take part in her sins, lest you share in her plagues;

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

@Hoosier in Mad Town

Is that your commentary or from the Tweet?

MH

My commentary.

Related:

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

I'm not kidding, I think they figured out how to break the entire corrupt stock market with one stock.

It's kind of amazing.

 

[Sgfeer]

I believe that picture is shown as a diseased cvnt in the dictionary. What a miserable twat

 

[t_money86]

All Police officers nationwide need to fucking quit and tell politicians fuck themselves

 

[Sgfeer]

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/03/speaker-mike-johnson-john-boehner

^^speaking of twats

Transcript tampering? DOJ says written record of Biden interview with prosecutors omitted words

Even though the Justice Department stated that the transcript was altered, it still contains some repeat and filler words.

justthenews.com

 

[Sgfeer]

Dr. Fauci Caught in Scheme to Hide Emails from FOIA Requests — Hid Information on Source of COVID from the Wuhan Lab — Paid Off Doctor to Keep Silent with Millions in Funding and Grants | The Gateway Pundit | by Jim Hoft

On January 31, 2020, Danish-born and British-educated scientist Kristian Andersen emailed Dr.

www.thegatewaypundit.com

Trump amasses more followers than Biden about 24 hours after joining TikTok

Trump once tried through executive order to require the sale of TikTok to a U.S. company or face a ban but the attempt was blocked in court.

justthenews.com

Trump vows to take appeal of criminal hush money case to Supreme Court

"The United States Supreme Court MUST DECIDE!" Trump wrote on Truth Social

justthenews.com

https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/06/02/wh-counsels-spox-comment-on-hur-interview-n2174976

 

[Sgfeer]

Gunman who shot 2 NYPD cops revealed to be migrant who recently crossed into US via Eagle Pass: sources

Two cops were shot in Queens early Monday, allegedly by a 19-year-old Venezuelan migrant they tried to stop on a motorized scooter, police and sources said.

nypost.com

Jill Biden appears at Hunter gun trial as dad Joe hails ‘inspiring’ son

First son Hunter Biden arrived at a Wilmington federal courthouse where a gun trial is kicking off against him Monday morning

nypost.com

^^if he's proud of an illegal gun toting, crackhead pedo adulterer who lives off his Dads name, maybe our President should aim higher.

How a woke military has created a recruiting crisis — and put Americans in danger

Fox News host Pete Hegseth tackles the issue in his new book “The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men and Women Who Keep Us Free.”

nypost.com

 

[orng_blud]

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

It's happening.

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

Convenient as hell this is all going down the same day/time that Tony Fauci is lying his ass off about what he did during COVID.

That makes me wonder whether its truly a white hat or black hat operation

 

[orng_blud]

 

[Sgfeer]

It's happening.

 

[Sgfeer]

estefanygarmon on GETTR : Peter Schweitzer: “I think the investigation is going to take a very interesting turn…” He says they discovered a private phone belonging to Joe Biden, which was paid for by Rosemont Seneca. The House Oversight Committee

Peter Schweitzer: “I think the investigation is going to take a very interesting turn…” He says they discovered a private phone belonging to Joe Biden, which was paid for by Rosemont Seneca. The House Oversight Committee is apparently subpoenaing those phone records, which will show who Joe...

gettr.com

"Nothing To Do With World Events": Two Unarmed Minuteman III ICBMs Slated For Launch Next Week | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[CDDP]

 

[Cheddarwurst]

Going to shut it down for a while Baws
I got a personal matter to deal with.
Keep the faith and God Speed.
View attachment 217432View attachment 217434

I pray that God draws close to your family at this time and always.

 

[Dolphincock]

Going to shut it down for a while Baws
I got a personal matter to deal with.
Keep the faith and God Speed.
View attachment 217432View attachment 217434

God Bless you brother! You will be missed! Come back with a clear head and maybe a couple of libtards heads as well

 

[CDDP]

 

[orng_blud]

 

[MortgageHorn]

My commentary.

Related:

 

[MortgageHorn]

It's happening.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/ma...al-issue-berkshire-hathaway-halted-rcna155182

New York Stock Exchange says technical issue fixed after Berkshire Hathaway incorrectly shown to fall 99%​

Shares of GameStop, AMC Entertainment and Chipotle had also been affected.





Technical Issue?

 

[MortgageHorn]

It's happening.

They are "Fixing" it....








@Hoosier in Mad Town - how long can they "plug leaks" and say "Technical Issues" before it totally gets away from them?

 

[MortgageHorn]

Convenient as hell this is all going down the same day/time that Tony Fauci is lying his ass off about what he did during COVID.

That makes me wonder whether its truly a white hat or black hat operation

 

[OPD77]

Pretty sure the VP has to be born an american.

That's true...I was just putting it out there jokingly, but having a super successful businessman in an advisory roll is a bonus.

I've often wondered if Elon was part of the catch the steal of 2020 with his satellites, space program or other things that may have been beneficial in "we caught them" "we have everything" process....or maybe just their communications during the Twatter days. Just a thought or two...

 

[CDDP]

 

[CDDP]

 

[MortgageHorn]

Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading, told CNN that the NYSE’s explanation is hard to square with the bizarre trades that hit the tape.

“I’m not buying that explanation. That doesn’t make any sense to me,” said Saluzzi, a market structure expert and author of “Broken Markets.”

Trading data provided by Refinitiv shows that Berkshire Hathaway changed hands at $620,700 as of 9:44:32 on Monday morning. And then, without any explanation, the stock crashed to just $185.10.

“All of a sudden, there was a $185 print. But there was nothing to take it down level by level, which you would expect to see,” said Saluzzi. “It makes no sense.”

Saluzzi said he expects the bad trades will be canceled shortly by NYSE.

 

[ShaolinNole]

Joe Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading, told CNN that the NYSE’s explanation is hard to square with the bizarre trades that hit the tape.

“I’m not buying that explanation. That doesn’t make any sense to me,” said Saluzzi, a market structure expert and author of “Broken Markets.”

Trading data provided by Refinitiv shows that Berkshire Hathaway changed hands at $620,700 as of 9:44:32 on Monday morning. And then, without any explanation, the stock crashed to just $185.10.

“All of a sudden, there was a $185 print. But there was nothing to take it down level by level, which you would expect to see,” said Saluzzi. “It makes no sense.”

Saluzzi said he expects the bad trades will be canceled shortly by NYSE.

Bad trades and stops should be cancelled, and adjusted back to their prior state. This has happened to me a few times. Data feeds go haywire. Will need to see if there is more to it.

 

[AgEngDawg]

I am not taking my chances on the anal sex plane.

I will schedule with a different airline.

 

[MortgageHorn]

 

[MortgageHorn]

MGT going gangster on Fauci

 

[Viking]

I am not taking my chances on the anal sex plane.

I will schedule with a different airline.

For crying out loud. You have one job. To make sure bolts and doors and shit dont fly off the plane. Skol!

 

[Encarnacion]

While this hearing is another all-talk charade by Congress, which LACer is the dude behind Fauxi?
Interesting to see Ivan Raiklin right there, also...

 

[Thasubliminal]

My hometown going to save the republic

Frankenmuth, a bizarre 'German' city that could swing the US election

Frankenmuth, also known as 'Little Bavaria,' is alive with the sights and sounds of a traditional German toytown - but there's an unexpected twist.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Hoosier in Mad Town]

They are "Fixing" it....


View attachment 217462





@Hoosier in Mad Town - how long can they "plug leaks" and say "Technical Issues" before it totally gets away from them?

I don't know. But at some point, if this whole ball of yarn is as tightly wound as we think, they can't solve it. It's all about liquidity. If the hedge funds, were over-leveraged, go insolvent, then the banks have to call other loans to remain liquid, which means every PE firm, every VC firm, every organization that took on debt of any kind is going to be screwed because their loans are going to be called too!

 

[MortgageHorn]

 

[TopHook]

"Dr."

 

[Sgfeer]

Miriam looks like she would be fun to smoke a joint with