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***Master US Jobs / Inflation Thread***

ChicagoFats

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ChicagoFats

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iu
 

America 1st

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Inflation coming in hot at the highest level since 1982. How will policy makers respond? Stock market up about 1% this morning on the news.

.8% for the month on pace for 6.8% surge on the year.

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The markets are going to be all over the place in 22.

Im gonna be buying on the dips steadily tho with the inflation expected to be up thru 23.
 

America 1st

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What does Munger mean by "The currency is going to zero" ??? Anyone care to opine?



There have Ben calls of the currency going two zero for decades without it cumming two fruition.

Inflation kills democracies though because anarchists and antigovernment radicals take advantage of those opportunities when the government isn’t as popular.

I.E people are short sighted and love two ruin a gud thing.
 

BigBucnNole

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What does Munger mean by "The currency is going to zero" ??? Anyone care to opine?




Probably means the value is going to be worthless. Don't ever trust the investor types on the overall health of the economy.
 

ChicagoFats

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Every once in a while even the smart people get it wrong. Not even trying to say that he is wrong on crypto, the jury is still out in my opinion. But Buffet and Munger have gotten a a lot wrong in their career, they will admit to that. Yes they are great decision makers and asset allocators, but that does not make them infallible.

SO FAR, they have been dead wrong on crypto.

Can you kind of see the irony that the top capitalist in the world does not wan't the system to change? Of course they don't want to see the system change.
 

ChicagoFats

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Probably means the value is going to be worthless. Don't ever trust the investor types on the overall health of the economy.


I think Munger is implying that you should invest your money instead of leave it in cash. Over 100 years (or less), inflation will eat your savings and it will be worthless.

I don't think he means the currency becomes worthless due to anarchy.
 

America 1st

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I think Munger is implying that you should invest your money instead of leave it in cash. Over 100 years (or less), inflation will eat your savings and it will be worthless.

I don't think he means the currency becomes worthless due to anarchy.
This is spot on.

Anarchy and antigovernment radicals wood never find success in The US butt they do find success in other shit hole cuntrees (and currencies) unfortunately.

It’s nothing knew really. Everyone knows how the game is played. The Founders instituted this system, that has made us the greatest cuntree ever, because they knew how great the system was! 🇺🇸

Every once in a while even the smart people get it wrong. Not even trying to say that he is wrong on crypto, the jury is still out in my opinion. But Buffet and Munger have gotten a a lot wrong in their career, they will admit to that. Yes they are great decision makers and asset allocators, but that does not make them infallible.

SO FAR, they have been dead wrong on crypto.

Can you kind of see the irony that the top capitalist in the world does not wan't the system to change? Of course they don't want to see the system change.
Know doubt that everywon gets it wrong from time two time.

I’d argue they are spot on with their assessment of crypto sew far though and it looks like they’ve nailed it on there call hear. Cryptos have a pretty shitty track record sew far. Two date pollution and terror attacks have been the only things they’ve contributed two the world.

Know doubt the most successful capitalists inn the world don’t want the system two change. They no how gud we all have it and are smart enough two know when knot two kill the golden goose.
 

ChicagoFats

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Prices are rising at an 8.5% per year rate.

Biden is clueless. Better yet is they gaslight you and tell you its "Putins Inflation." Sadly, half our country will probably believe this shit.


1649767331115.png
 

ChicagoFats

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CPI report shows 8% increase yesterday
PPI shows 11.2% increase.

Goldman came out yesterday saying this could be peak inflation. We will see if they are correct.

1649856439592.png
 

ChicagoFats

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Cargo container supply at ports are falling which would signal an increase of containers on ships, which then signal stronger supply chain.

I hope so. They could be related or it could just be a false signal.

I hope the supply chain gets stronger but have a feeling the chinese lockdown may draw out the problems even further. That and interest rates need to keep going higher to reign in some of that money doled out during (and following) the pandemic
 

BigBucnNole

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I hope so. They could be related or it could just be a false signal.

I hope the supply chain gets stronger but have a feeling the chinese lockdown may draw out the problems even further. That and interest rates need to keep going higher to reign in some of that money doled out during (and following) the pandemic

About 8% of the US GDP is net trade. Bulk of our supply chain is domestic. I think the international piece is coming back online (to a degree) but as long as we can quit with the lockdowns, 94% if the remaining GDP will be fine. Things will normalize.

Also... there's been 7 trillion worth of capital flight that has come to the US in the last 4 years because of the international shit storm brewing. That's including the shit storm before covid. As supply chains internationally drag, China fractures, Russia kills itself, Germany ages to death, you can only expect trillions upon trillions of more capital. That's yuge demand for the dollar.
 
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ChicagoFats

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About 8% of the US GDP is net trade. Bulk of our supply chain is domestic. I think the international piece is coming back online (to a degree) but as long as we can quit with the lockdowns, 94% if the remaining GDP will be fine. Things will normalize.

Also... there's been 7 trillion worth of capital flight that has come to the US in the last 4 years because of the international shit storm brewing. That's including the shit storm before covid. As supply chains internationally drag, China fractures, Russia kills itself, Germany ages to death, you can only expect trillions upon trillions of more capital. That's yuge demand for the dollar.

Hmm $7 trillion of capital flight ..... it has to go somewhere. Seems like that would be a contributor to inflation don't you think?
 

BigBucnNole

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Hmm $7 trillion of capital flight ..... it has to go somewhere. Seems like that would be a contributor to inflation don't you think?

It's capital flight coming into the US. It's going into purchasing t bills, real estate, and oddly enough shale bonds. That contributes to an increase in demand for dollars. Supply chain mess may be over playing their hand in pricing with the demand for dollars as it is.
 

ChicagoFats

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Inflation coming in hot with this months CPI report showing an 8.6% increase per year on prices.
This was higher than the high end of expectations. The Fed meets next week to set interest rate policy and todays fed fund futures showed a jump in the probability of a .75% increase at next weeks meeting, now pricing in at a 17.5% chance.

Contributors to the high print were the cost of gasoline, food, and energy with some being near record high prices.


Probability of Fed Futures after next Wednesdays meeting. 82% chance of a 50bps hike and 18% chance of .75bps hike.

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shiv

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Inflation coming in hot with this months CPI report showing an 8.6% increase per year on prices.
This was higher than the high end of expectations. The Fed meets next week to set interest rate policy and todays fed fund futures showed a jump in the probability of a .75% increase at next weeks meeting, now pricing in at a 17.5% chance.

Contributors to the high print were the cost of gasoline, food, and energy with some being near record high prices.


Probability of Fed Futures after next Wednesdays meeting. 82% chance of a 50bps hike and 18% chance of .75bps hike.

View attachment 109260
So we have the announced rate hikes by the fed, but how come the daily rates also fluctuate? I saw we were up %.1 today which seems pretty significant for just one day
 

AgEngDawg

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I am married and no longer able to participate.

However, how has this inflation impacted strip clubs??

Are these chicks expecting only 5 dollar bills now? Would they be insulted by the trusty ole dollar bill?

How much is a private lap dance nowadays?
 

shiv

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Inflation coming in hot with this months CPI report showing an 8.6% increase per year on prices.
This was higher than the high end of expectations. The Fed meets next week to set interest rate policy and todays fed fund futures showed a jump in the probability of a .75% increase at next weeks meeting, now pricing in at a 17.5% chance.

Contributors to the high print were the cost of gasoline, food, and energy with some being near record high prices.


Probability of Fed Futures after next Wednesdays meeting. 82% chance of a 50bps hike and 18% chance of .75bps hike.

View attachment 109260
So what does the fed announce tomorrow? Rates to the moon? Pause?
 
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