***Master US Jobs / Inflation Thread***

[ChicagoFats]

So what does the fed announce tomorrow? Rates to the moon? Pause?

95% chance of a .75 bps increase in the fed funds rate.

 

[ChicagoFats]

 

[ChicagoFats]

I’ve read that the mortgage rates need to rise to the rate on inflation to get inflation in check. We could see 8% mortgages within a year.

 

[shiv]

I’ve read that the mortgage rates need to rise to the rate on inflation to get inflation in check. We could see 8% mortgages within a year.

How do you connect mortgage rates to inflation? I get it why, but how does the mechanism work? Money velocity slows down?

 

[ChicagoFats]

How do you connect mortgage rates to inflation? I get it why, but how does the mechanism work? Money velocity slows down?

Maybe i meant Fed Funds rate. Fed Funds Rate, (which is directly tied to mortgage rates) have to reach the rate of inflation in order to bring the rate of inflation under control.

I may have messed it up a little bit, but the premise remains the same. Intrest rates in general must reach the rate of inflation to bring inflation under control. I think it was Larry Summers who said it.

Found the article i was referring to. This was from March and things have gotten considerable worse since then.

Larry Summers Warns That Interest Rates Have to Go Much Higher

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has been warning about the dangers of an inflationary spiral in the U.S. economy for more than a year, driven largely by what he saw as excessive pandemic relief spending under the Biden administration. Now he’s predicting the Federal Reserve will...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[shiv]

Maybe i meant Fed Funds rate. Fed Funds Rate, (which is directly tied to mortgage rates) have to reach the rate of inflation in order to bring the rate of inflation under control.

I may have messed it up a little bit, but the premise remains the same. Intrest rates in general must reach the rate of inflation to bring inflation under control. I think it was Larry Summers who said it.

Found the article i was referring to. This was from March and things have gotten considerable worse since then.

Larry Summers Warns That Interest Rates Have to Go Much Higher

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has been warning about the dangers of an inflationary spiral in the U.S. economy for more than a year, driven largely by what he saw as excessive pandemic relief spending under the Biden administration. Now he’s predicting the Federal Reserve will...

finance.yahoo.com

View attachment 110438

“Levels they’re not even thinking are conceivable” lol

How have the last couple weeks been reflected in your work?

 

[ChicagoFats]

“Levels they’re not even thinking are conceivable” lol

How have the last couple weeks been reflected in your work?

Not great, they should have been better. I’m super frustrated but hoping to right the ship soon. Made some changes to our model and hoping that makes a difference in the following weeks.

 

[shiv]

Not great, they should have been better. I’m super frustrated but hoping to right the ship soon. Made some changes to our model and hoping that makes a difference in the following weeks.

Sorry about that dude. You’ll get it figured out