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Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

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Jtrain80

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Jan 7, 2021
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3,493
Give it time. The stock market is due for a huge correction. The amount of money that has been printed the fact that the Fed has kept rates low artificially for over 10 years now. And the fact that Joe Biden can fuck up anything he’s going to lead to a huge downturn in the stock market and the real estate market in my opinion. Sometime in the next 6 to 12 months. And the longer it goes the more drastic the collapse will be

Late summer/fall for the big correction. Start locking in

Any recommendations on how to prepare financially?
 

Dawg88

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Any recommendations on how to prepare financially?
Most of the models we use have been riding the wave of greed over the past year. Commonsense would’ve said to go to cash one year ago but that would have not worked out too well

And Lord knows if I had had a crystal ball we would’ve gone to cash a year ago. Anyways I think the best advice is to have good companies to be diversified And hopefully have a strategy to get out of the market if things start to turn bad

I have a feeling toward the end of summer our models will start going more and more to cash , Gold and defensive positions. Feel free to shoot me a DM at any time

The stock market average a sustained 20% pullback every roughly 7 years. We have not had one since 2008. So we are overdue. The Fed has printed a ton of money and kept interest rates down artificially for over 10 years
So having said that the market has been propped up by this and by big tech and big pharmaceutical companies. and for the first time in 50 to maybe 100 years the stock market is liberal. LOL but seriously

I think the music stops toward the end of the summer into the fall

greed is King right now and the last time I saw it like this was around 2008

after sleepy Joe gets some of his policies across things will start to get bad. And I have a feeling inflation will kick in. Again I don’t know if that completely answers your question on timing. The market is impossible to time. I do think the longer it runs the harder it will fall. Again shoot me a message anytime and I hope that helps
 

jdgnole

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Jan 9, 2021
Messages
1,050
My wife won’t allow a single thing to be planted until Mother’s Day every year. Nothing. And our landscaping is bullet proof because of it.
Had a pretty good freezer last night, was supposed to be low of 34 but it went down to 28 and we have all our animals and plants coming up. Here in north of Atlanta the safe zone i.e. farmers almanac is April 15 but usually we can play that game a little bit earlier but we kind of stuck with that. We have a nice yard and pool area that’s turned into a very high maintenance landscape versus what all my clients want which is nice but low maintenance LOL, got up at 3 AM and turned on the irrigation which is supposed to help save plants from a hard freeze which is what they do for fruit trees, also put it back on early this morning seems like we might’ve missed most of it except for a few things. At least this year we only put out 5flats of annuals versus the normal 10.
 

Jtrain80

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Joined
Jan 7, 2021
Messages
3,493
Most of the models we use have been riding the wave of greed over the past year. Commonsense would’ve said to go to cash one year ago but that would have not worked out too well

And Lord knows if I had had a crystal ball we would’ve gone to cash a year ago. Anyways I think the best advice is to have good companies to be diversified And hopefully have a strategy to get out of the market if things start to turn bad

I have a feeling toward the end of summer our models will start going more and more to cash , Gold and defensive positions. Feel free to shoot me a DM at any time

The stock market average a sustained 20% pullback every roughly 7 years. We have not had one since 2008. So we are overdue. The Fed has printed a ton of money and kept interest rates down artificially for over 10 years
So having said that the market has been propped up by this and by big tech and big pharmaceutical companies. and for the first time in 50 to maybe 100 years the stock market is liberal. LOL but seriously

I think the music stops toward the end of the summer into the fall

greed is King right now and the last time I saw it like this was around 2008

after sleepy Joe gets some of his policies across things will start to get bad. And I have a feeling inflation will kick in. Again I don’t know if that completely answers your question on timing. The market is impossible to time. I do think the longer it runs the harder it will fall. Again shoot me a message anytime and I hope that helps

Thanks, yes that answered my immediate question.
 

thenick_ttu

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Jan 8, 2021
Messages
1,019
Most of the models we use have been riding the wave of greed over the past year. Commonsense would’ve said to go to cash one year ago but that would have not worked out too well

And Lord knows if I had had a crystal ball we would’ve gone to cash a year ago. Anyways I think the best advice is to have good companies to be diversified And hopefully have a strategy to get out of the market if things start to turn bad

I have a feeling toward the end of summer our models will start going more and more to cash , Gold and defensive positions. Feel free to shoot me a DM at any time

The stock market average a sustained 20% pullback every roughly 7 years. We have not had one since 2008. So we are overdue. The Fed has printed a ton of money and kept interest rates down artificially for over 10 years
So having said that the market has been propped up by this and by big tech and big pharmaceutical companies. and for the first time in 50 to maybe 100 years the stock market is liberal. LOL but seriously

I think the music stops toward the end of the summer into the fall

greed is King right now and the last time I saw it like this was around 2008

after sleepy Joe gets some of his policies across things will start to get bad. And I have a feeling inflation will kick in. Again I don’t know if that completely answers your question on timing. The market is impossible to time. I do think the longer it runs the harder it will fall. Again shoot me a message anytime and I hope that helps

This is a really good answer, thanks.

I have a similar but different question for you or anyone that might know... I am currently looking for 20-30 acres of rural, unimproved land somewhere in East(ish) Texas. I have no immediate need for it. Just want a place that I can call my own and starting working on toward retirement. Would it be better to buy now or wait until this looming "market correction" takes place? Would land/real estate prices fall with something like this?
 

Dawg88

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Messages
4,076
This is a really good answer, thanks.

I have a similar but different question for you or anyone that might know... I am currently looking for 20-30 acres of rural, unimproved land somewhere in East(ish) Texas. I have no immediate need for it. Just want a place that I can call my own and starting working on toward retirement. Would it be better to buy now or wait until this looming "market correction" takes place? Would land/real estate prices fall with something like this?
That’s an interesting question. I’m in the stock business not the real estate business I have a brother that lives in Austin Texas or right outside
He probably could answer that question for you. If you want to shoot me your information please do and I can connect the two of y’all. He owns a couple of airports between Austin and Houston

In my opinion I believe people will be moving from cities to suburbs and from suburbs to undeveloped rural areas. I think that’s gonna be a good investment over the long run for what it’s worth
 

ttyh

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Dec 1, 2020
Messages
4,505
This is a really good answer, thanks.

I have a similar but different question for you or anyone that might know... I am currently looking for 20-30 acres of rural, unimproved land somewhere in East(ish) Texas. I have no immediate need for it. Just want a place that I can call my own and starting working on toward retirement. Would it be better to buy now or wait until this looming "market correction" takes place? Would land/real estate prices fall with something like this?

I don't foresee a real estate market correction happening anytime soon in Texas. People are moving here in droves. I've been on and off house hunting in the League City and Clear Lake areas and properties are snatched up within 7 days on the market. The demand is far outpacing the supply.
 

44Bobcats55

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893
This is a really good answer, thanks.

I have a similar but different question for you or anyone that might know... I am currently looking for 20-30 acres of rural, unimproved land somewhere in East(ish) Texas. I have no immediate need for it. Just want a place that I can call my own and starting working on toward retirement. Would it be better to buy now or wait until this looming "market correction" takes place? Would land/real estate prices fall with something like this?
Prices are artificial right now. We have two houses on Lake Travis that have both appreciated by over 100% in the past 18 months (on Zillow and Redfin). Unfortunately property taxes are increasing artificially as well. It is tempting to refi and take out cash but when it corrects we would be upside down.
 

Jayhox

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5,099
I've had multiple conversations with left-leaning friends and colleagues after this Columbus shooting. I really think the media is overplaying their hand here. It's been a giant red pill for the same folks who thought Trump was Putin's stooge for the last 5 years. That is a sign that the tide may be finally turning.

Let's hope we can put the genie back in the bottle before it's too late.
Sometimes you have to show them.
 

UNC71-00

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I don't foresee a real estate market correction happening anytime soon in Texas. People are moving here in droves. I've been on and off house hunting in the League City and Clear Lake areas and properties are snatched up within 7 days on the market. The demand is far outpacing the supply.

real estate market now is being driven by low supply, low interest rates and higher costs of new construction (which obliviously affects supply but also custom houses). Desirable places like Texas aren’t cooling off soon.

we have a house in Winston-Salem, which is a nice enough place but nothing great at all. This house was purchased brand spanking new for $108k in 2003. We have been renting it for 7 years with only 2 tenants and the last one moved out. I sold it a few weeks ago without putting it on the market for 200k and the neighborhood has gone slightly downhill since 2003.
 

TriggerHappyJack

Random Average Guy
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Joined
Jan 9, 2021
Messages
162
Most of the models we use have been riding the wave of greed over the past year. Commonsense would’ve said to go to cash one year ago but that would have not worked out too well

And Lord knows if I had had a crystal ball we would’ve gone to cash a year ago. Anyways I think the best advice is to have good companies to be diversified And hopefully have a strategy to get out of the market if things start to turn bad

I have a feeling toward the end of summer our models will start going more and more to cash , Gold and defensive positions. Feel free to shoot me a DM at any time

The stock market average a sustained 20% pullback every roughly 7 years. We have not had one since 2008. So we are overdue. The Fed has printed a ton of money and kept interest rates down artificially for over 10 years
So having said that the market has been propped up by this and by big tech and big pharmaceutical companies. and for the first time in 50 to maybe 100 years the stock market is liberal. LOL but seriously

I think the music stops toward the end of the summer into the fall

greed is King right now and the last time I saw it like this was around 2008

after sleepy Joe gets some of his policies across things will start to get bad. And I have a feeling inflation will kick in. Again I don’t know if that completely answers your question on timing. The market is impossible to time. I do think the longer it runs the harder it will fall. Again shoot me a message anytime and I hope that helps
Thank you for this information!
 

Erasmuss

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Joined
Dec 1, 2020
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15
Prices are artificial right now. We have two houses on Lake Travis that have both appreciated by over 100% in the past 18 months (on Zillow and Redfin). Unfortunately property taxes are increasing artificially as well. It is tempting to refi and take out cash but when it corrects we would be upside down.
Wife and I looked at a house that went on market Friday. 1 hour later a note was added that highest and best offers due 5 pm Sunday. Asking was 700k. When we got there Saturday am there were already 6 offers in. The next 3 showings were lined up on the street as we walked out. We were advised that to be considered serious we should offer 50k in dd $, 1 week or less dd period, minimum150k earnest $, and 100k over Asking. And then when it doesn't appraise whatever the difference between selling price and appraisal comes out of pocket as well. Absurd. This is in Raleigh
 

ttyh

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Wife and I looked at a house that went on market Friday. 1 hour later a note was added that highest and best offers due 5 pm Sunday. Asking was 700k. When we got there Saturday am there were already 6 offers in. The next 3 showings were lined up on the street as we walked out. We were advised that to be considered serious we should offer 50k in dd $, 1 week or less dd period, minimum150k earnest $, and 100k over Asking. And then when it doesn't appraise whatever the difference between selling price and appraisal comes out of pocket as well. Absurd. This is in Raleigh

In my neighborhood in Austin, houses are going on the market on a Friday for say, $850,000. By Sunday evening they have dozens of offers with the majority being over list price and the seller shuts it down to new offers. That 850k list price home is getting offers up to $1.3 cash with the inspection waived. And some of the offers are from buyers who offer sight unseen while others are from buyers who have a realtor FaceTime them through the house. It’s crazy. Seriously considering cashing out.
 

MeridianOSU

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Wife and I looked at a house that went on market Friday. 1 hour later a note was added that highest and best offers due 5 pm Sunday. Asking was 700k. When we got there Saturday am there were already 6 offers in. The next 3 showings were lined up on the street as we walked out. We were advised that to be considered serious we should offer 50k in dd $, 1 week or less dd period, minimum150k earnest $, and 100k over Asking. And then when it doesn't appraise whatever the difference between selling price and appraisal comes out of pocket as well. Absurd. This is in Raleigh
3rd house down from us had a for sale coming soon sign. Went on market last Saturday with an open house. Sale pending sign was up end of the day. Was listed at $245/sq/ft. Sold at $283😬.
 

MeridianOSU

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My buddy took this flying into Merrill Field last night. SKOL!
View attachment 17084
Been in Alaska 3 times. Once taking clients on fishing trip. Cruise with wife that was clear whole week and got up close in Glacier Bay. Cousin funeral was last trip.

That said, if the good Lord allows me to live long enough I will drive up from Idaho in Summer and spend 2 months exploring the whole state.
 

Viking

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Been in Alaska 3 times. Once taking clients on fishing trip. Cruise with wife that was clear whole week and got up close in Glacier Bay. Cousin funeral was last trip.

That said, if the good Lord allows me to live long enough I will drive up from Idaho in Summer and spend 2 months exploring the whole state.
Let’s go fishing! Getting close, I think the cutthroat are starting up in Yakutat. Salmon are probably getting antsy and heading to Homer in a couple of weeks to restock the freezer with halibut. We’d love to have you. SKOL!
 

MeridianOSU

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Let’s go fishing! Getting close, I think the cutthroat are starting up in Yakutat. Salmon are probably getting antsy and heading to Homer in a couple of weeks to restock the freezer with halibut. We’d love to have you. SKOL! Five years from now it’s a deal!
 

MeridianOSU

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I’m sorry turned on Fox News to early and saw He/She Laura. Her throat surgery looks more and more like He/she had it to take BBC.

Tuned it for Gutfeld,
 

hmt5000

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Mr Munster once again...

I'll try to find the video but a former greenpeace member who was one of the co-founders has come to the good side. He gave a speech where he was talking about how much better the planet would be if co2 levels were in the 600ppm to 800ppm range. Plants thrive in that range and mammals started to advance when the planet was at that range.
 

N. Pappagiorgio

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This is a really good answer, thanks.

I have a similar but different question for you or anyone that might know... I am currently looking for 20-30 acres of rural, unimproved land somewhere in East(ish) Texas. I have no immediate need for it. Just want a place that I can call my own and starting working on toward retirement. Would it be better to buy now or wait until this looming "market correction" takes place? Would land/real estate prices fall with something like this?
Land in east Texas will never be lower than it is today.
 

hmt5000

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Messages
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Give it time. The stock market is due for a huge correction. The amount of money that has been printed the fact that the Fed has kept rates low artificially for over 10 years now. And the fact that Joe Biden can fuck up anything he’s going to lead to a huge downturn in the stock market and the real estate market in my opinion. Sometime in the next 6 to 12 months. And the longer it goes the more drastic the collapse will be
Glen Beck had a thing on his show the other day talking about money supply. Money supply doubled after like 40 years then it doubled after 10. Biden is looking at doubling the money supply in 2 years the way things are going. Glen is pretty hardcore on the collapse of the dollar by next year.

I've bought silver a few times the last few years and im probably gonna get some gold and silver this summer because I just don't see how this inflation doesn't get out of hand and the dollar just tank.
 

Dawg88

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Glen Beck had a thing on his show the other day talking about money supply. Money supply doubled after like 40 years then it doubled after 10. Biden is looking at doubling the money supply in 2 years the way things are going. Glen is pretty hardcore on the collapse of the dollar by next year.

I've bought silver a few times the last few years and im probably gonna get some gold and silver this summer because I just don't see how this inflation doesn't get out of hand and the dollar just tank.
Agreed and I think that’s a good idea
 

Wait What

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I'll try to find the video but a former greenpeace member who was one of the co-founders has come to the good side. He gave a speech where he was talking about how much better the planet would be if co2 levels were in the 600ppm to 800ppm range. Plants thrive in that range and mammals started to advance when the planet was at that range.
I've heard him speak as well. I believe he said that for whatever reason, the CO2 levels in the early part of the 20th century were at dangerously low levels. It actually angers him that people are led to believe that CO2 is a poisonous gas as it is vital to life existing on this planet.

On another note, I believe he was the only Greenpeace founder who was an actual scientist.
 

tgsio

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Way late on this... but I can't remember if I posted about this after election night.

Our friend (the dad of #4 in my avatar and my husband's friend since they were 4 years old) did win his election for appellate judge. And thank goodness for that. He's a true constitutionalist.

@Nape... you might know him or know of him. Chris Epley. If you do, I can guarantee you know my husband and his core group of friends.

Great guy with a wicked dry sense of humor. And a great addition to the bench.
 
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