• Pat Flood (@rebarcock) passed away 9/21/25. Pat played a huge role in encouraging the devolopmemt of this site and donated the very first dollar to get it started. Check the thread at the top of the board for the obituary and please feel free to pay your respects there. I am going to get all the content from that thread over to his family so they can see how many people really cared for Pat outside of what they ever knew. Pat loved to tell stories and always wanted everyone else to tell stories. I think a great way we can honor Pat is to tell a story in his thread (also pinned at the top of the board).

Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

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This is true. Reality is the market causing the inflation has died already. New construction contracts are off by 50-70% on the ground. The bulk of builds are getting ready to come through the system in the next 3-5 months. 1st qtr next year will be very ugly in the construction world.
Fyi May broke the downward trend for new homecontracts. I was surprised when I saw that this morning
 
Highly doubt it. I'd bet rates get up to 7% before they lower. 5 trillion is a lot to clear away. They'll probably start cutting year 1 of next president imo
Can’t see over 4.50-5.00 but you very well could be right. If so, we’re looking at the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Edit: market consensus is ceiling of 3.50 by Q4 with first cut by Q2 2023.
 
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Just read the guy from movie The Big Shkrt says he can see the fed doing a 180 soon. He is more in tuned than I am but I don't agree w him
I heard a great analysis today. The economist was saying that the Fed’s policy is based 100% on the demand side and that they are printing money, etc., with a focus on driving demand. This economist said the Fed has it completely backwards and is acting as if a caboose pushes a freight train. I thought that was a great analogy.
 
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I heard a great analysis today. The economist was as

Saying that the Fed’s policy is based 100% on the demand side and that they are printing money, etc., with a focus on driving demand. This economist said the Fed has it completely backwards and is acting as if a caboose pushes a freight train. I thought that was a great analogy.
Once one realizes the fed is a central tenet of the communsit manifesto we can better understand its actions and intentions

The fed loves crisis, deflates and inflates to its advantage
 

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