Real Estate Market Thread

[Croot_Overlord]

Thoughts on the real estate market thread...

Here are mine:

Real estate market is nuts right now across the board. Seems to me like we just went zooming past 2008 levels.

At some point I think its gonna take a nasty turn in the other direction because:
1. At some point banks will start foreclosing on all the loans that went belly up during covid
2. Once lumber prices normalize, new build prices will come back down forcing downward pressure on existing home prices
3. You have to think that rates will rise at some point....

 

[Mr. Goodtiger]

I do feel like we’re all still waiting on the other shoe to drop from covid but I have no idea what that’s going to look like, especially with rates so low. I agree they’ll come up at some point but I don’t think anyone in charge has any real interest in doing it any time soon.

I’m looking at the estimates and recent sales in our neighborhood and there’s just no way it’s reflective of actual value.

 

[BigBucnNole]

2022 should squeeze the air out some. Probably be a slow cycle through 2026. Just basing off of inventory, construction, and covid I think forcing people to go ahead and relocate now instead of waiting. I think it created a mini bubble.

 

[RHT 3]

Shit is stupid and unsustainable. How yah fuck are people affording these 400 and 500 thousand dollar houses ?

I know a lot is driven by Cali and NY transplants but so many locals are buying as well.

I mean, this is taking house poor to new levels.

 

[TopHook]

Listed a house for $640000 sold in 24 hours. Shit is crazy.

 

[catfishpunter]

Shit is stupid and unsustainable. How yah fuck are people affording these 400 and 500 thousand dollar houses ?

I know a lot is driven by Cali and NY transplants but so many locals are buying as well.

I mean, this is taking house poor to new levels.

Interest rates and high rent. You can buy a $500k house with a lower payment than you can rent a decent family home in our town.

 

[CDDP]

Incomes need to go up rapidly to start to match housing costs.

 

[Jtrain80]

Incomes need to go up rapidly to start to match housing costs.

View attachment 6165

Graphs like this make me think of the mexican families I see w 6 people in a 3 bed 1 bath house and the vehicles in the driveway are worth more than the house.

To each his own. We have always splurged on house and drove beaters.

 

[ajcgn]

Shit is stupid and unsustainable. How yah fuck are people affording these 400 and 500 thousand dollar houses ?

I know a lot is driven by Cali and NY transplants but so many locals are buying as well.

I mean, this is taking house poor to new levels.

The average price of a detached home in Toronto is over $1.2M US, I guess that’s why so many people live in condos now.

 

[Simmer007]

Shit is stupid and unsustainable. How yah fuck are people affording these 400 and 500 thousand dollar houses ?

I know a lot is driven by Cali and NY transplants but so many locals are buying as well.

I mean, this is taking house poor to new levels.

agree, I was looking at building and got the call back in august that the prices of all the new builds were going up 20%. I freaked out, talked to a different builder and he told me his prices just jumped too because of lumber. anyways, I ended up making an offer on one under construction at the 'regular price' and got it. now, 6 months later, I am in and the house going up across the street just sold for $230 (i paid $199) that is the same floor plan as mine. I couldn't imagine paying an extra 15% for this house

 

[Simmer007]

Incomes need to go up rapidly to start to match housing costs.

View attachment 6165

funny how the income gaps all seem to start separating is when the great society got started

 

[TopHook]

Bought a duplex in 09 after the crash for 173k now one is for sale at 350k. That got my heart nice and fuzzy. It will probably go for something near that.

 

[CurtOFD78]

My neighbor's house sold a few weeks ago... in 10 minutes, and the couple who bought it did so after watching a virtual tour, and paid over asking price. They are from Ohio. Central Florida is getting approximately 1500 people per day moving in, and that's only in Orange and Seminole Counties.

I'm thinking of putting my house up for sale in a few weeks. Sell this big house and downsize.

 

[4n6tox]

I know nothing, but unless you are talking about investment properties that you are unloading, this run-up isn't good for anybody but bankers, builders, and real estate agents. Sell your primary home for an inflated price and you have to turn around and buy another that is way over priced. Musical chairs at best.

 

[MonsterDonkey]

Crazy shit here....been looking for a NC Mountain house since last August. I live 6hrs away on SC coast & can’t get up there to see homes we like they’re selling so fast. Sometimes before they hit the market. One came available last Wednesday. Told my agent Thursday to make a full price offer immediately. We were fourth in line by then. Offers went above asking price so I went in 50k over asking & ended up getting it. Banker told me today she’d lock me in on a 15 year note at 1.875%. Rental program will cover my mortgage. We’re ecstatic.

 

[TopHook]

Crazy shit here....been looking for a NC Mountain house since last August. I live 6hrs away on SC coast & can’t get up there to see homes we like they’re selling so fast. Sometimes before they hit the market. One came available last Wednesday. Told my agent Thursday to make a full price offer immediately. We were fourth in line by then. Offers went above asking price so I went in 50k over asking & ended up getting it. Banker told me today she’d lock me in on a 15 year note at 1.875%. Rental program will cover my mortgage. We’re ecstatic.

Where at in SC? Family has a cabin at Lake Lure. We lost our other mountain rental in Gatlinburg. Congrats on the purchase.

 

[Cletusnow]

We signed a contract to build in August but from last March to contract day the price with the same builder went up 8%. Just glad we signed when we did. Should be innit by April.

 

[MonsterDonkey]

Where at in SC? Family has a cabin at Lake Lure. We lost our other mountain rental in Gatlinburg. Congrats on the purchase.

Georgetown. Just south of Pawleys Island. We like the Lake Lure area a lot too but West Jefferson area was where we really wanted to be.

 

[TopHook]

Georgetown. Just south of Pawleys Island. We like the Lake Lure area a lot too but West Jefferson area was where we really wanted to be.

About 45 min north of you in NMB. What type of town is West Jefferson?

 

[bigassmoney]

signed deal on new build on Feb 22 last year and we we were in 1st week of Aug at 630k... Timing was good enough to miss out on all the builder increases (lumber etc...). The stuff still going up now 6 mo later in like models are 40k more already.
Sister other side of town bought 20 years ago for about 250ish. just sold for 625.
This shit is stupid...

 

[Clynch25]

I’m trying to figure out the best moves right now.
Not claiming to know all answers but would be open to connecting with folks and hearing idea


There are lots of bright individuals on this board. I’d love to see ideas brought and work with others here as a conservative type investment arm.

I don’t have 7 figure type cash but would be willing to bet, we have enough folks here to fund and support great ideas.

 

[MrNonSequitur]

Incomes need to go up rapidly to start to match housing costs.

Incomes need to go up rapidly to start to match housing costs.

View attachment 6165

Where is this graph from?

 

[Npklee]

It is insane even in Michigan. Mother in law is a real estate agent. We found one we really liked and it was on the market a day with over 10 offers on the house.

Everything decent coming on the market is there for a day with best and finals due the next day.

With my job being remote really considering moving. Looking at Texas and Tennessee possibly North Carolina. Wife doesn’t want to do Florida but I would love Florida.

 

[Runninrebs1856]

Bout to close on Friday here in Vegas. Sold in Oct. Was downsizing house size into a bit higher end neighborhood. Looking to be here at least 10 more years figure worse case I take that money and have it in an asset. But we are seeing huge cali influx with people able to be remote. Even at our inflated prices they think the cost of living is low. Inventory is also strange. Areas you wouldn't want to live there is plenty. Desirable areas there is basically none.

Locked in right before the interest rates went up.

Crazy shit is my house I got at 2/3 this ones price in 2008 will amortize at the same amount over the loan duration with the interest as low as it is.

 

[FSU_Drews32]

Building prices aren’t coming down until the end of 2Q at the soonest. I think a lot of people bought 5-10 years ago after the crash and are now using that equity to upgrade. Ultra low interest rates are allowing a jump from $3-400K to $600 without a big jump in payment with the equity from the previous sale down.

 

[Sgfeer]

I do feel like we’re all still waiting on the other shoe to drop from covid but I have no idea what that’s going to look like, especially with rates so low. I agree they’ll come up at some point but I don’t think anyone in charge has any real interest in doing it any time soon.

I’m looking at the estimates and recent sales in our neighborhood and there’s just no way it’s reflective of actual value.

Just checked on my house last week, it had gone up 30K in about 3 weeks, then got an unsolicited letter from an agent with a couple looking at my house and floor plan and offering about 20K on top of that. I like my house, and the fact every thing else is up tells me to say no

 

[poke2001]

Thoughts on the real estate market thread...

Here are mine:

Real estate market is nuts right now across the board. Seems to me like we just went zooming past 2008 levels.

At some point I think its gonna take a nasty turn in the other direction because:
1. At some point banks will start foreclosing on all the loans that went belly up during covid
2. Once lumber prices normalize, new build prices will come back down forcing downward pressure on existing home prices
3. You have to think that rates will rise at some point....

I think the market is stronger than 2008 though. Outside of Covid related job losses, the labor market was tight so a lot of people were making more money than they ever have before. Interest rate reductions allowed for big discounts on homes, and working from anywhere for millions of people allowed mobility.

it will come back down to earth but I don’t think we see a crash. I don’t think it’s a bubble.

 

[poke2001]

Building prices aren’t coming down until the end of 2Q at the soonest. I think a lot of people bought 5-10 years ago after the crash and are now using that equity to upgrade. Ultra low interest rates are allowing a jump from $3-400K to $600 without a big jump in payment with the equity from the previous sale down.

Good point. In Oklahoma the range is a bit lower than that. We purchased in $200ks a couple years ago. We are looking around for $400ish and something bigger and can’t find shit without building new.

 

[Runninrebs1856]

I think the market is stronger than 2008 though. Outside of Covid related job losses, the labor market was tight so a lot of people were making more money than they ever have before. Interest rate reductions allowed for big discounts on homes, and working from anywhere for millions of people allowed mobility.

it will come back down to earth but I don’t think we see a crash. I don’t think it’s a bubble.

Something else I was told is with the interest rates so low people that may be in trouble due to covid have equity in their homes this time arround as a huge part of these people are buyers in years prior to 2019. This means there will not be a ton of bank owned properties hitting the market like 08-12.

Now when and if they start raising the interest rates back to a more normal level who knowns.

 

[GriffTannen]

As long as rates remain this low ain’t nothing changing. I bought my pad 8 years ago. I remember alllll the talk about rates. “Rates will never be this low buy now!”. We got a 3.375 back then on a 30 year. Can still get that now and even lower. We were offered 2.00% for a 15 year. Shave 7 years off and my payment barely budged on a refi.

Refi’s are also driving the market. People staying put. Low inventory. Remodeling with equity. Wife and I wanted to move this year. Right now if we look on Zillow for what we need there’s 3 houses that’s it in this city. Granted it’s winter but still. That’s insane. So, we’re inviting an architect over to see about adding on to this house. No sense in dealing with this market, being outbid by 20k on cash offers, and paying a realtor/loan fees just to move within the same city/area.

I do agree all these forbearances people are on will come to an end. And many will need help. But I don’t see it as big as of a problem as 2008 because the unemployment rate has been coming down and should only get better from here with vaccine rollouts etc. Plus they keep extending these forbearances out giving people more time to get back to work or find a new job.

 

[Long cat]

I do feel like we’re all still waiting on the other shoe to drop from covid but I have no idea what that’s going to look like, especially with rates so low. I agree they’ll come up at some point but I don’t think anyone in charge has any real interest in doing it any time soon.

I’m looking at the estimates and recent sales in our neighborhood and there’s just no way it’s reflective of actual value.

How could sales not be reflective of value? You sound like a tax collector.

 

[Long cat]

My neighbor's house sold a few weeks ago... in 10 minutes, and the couple who bought it did so after watching a virtual tour, and paid over asking price. They are from Ohio. Central Florida is getting approximately 1500 people per day moving in, and that's only in Orange and Seminole Counties.

I'm thinking of putting my house up for sale in a few weeks. Sell this big house and downsize.

The house two doors down from me sold for $500k a couple weeks ago. The people who sold it bought it for about that much in 2007/2008. It’s been on the market for over two years. They held the price steady and just sold it for their price. It needs some work too, it’s a yellow house with weird interiors like dark blue carpet.

 

[Mr. Goodtiger]

How could sales not be reflective of value? You sound like a tax collector.

You sound you’re unsure of how a bubble works. Here you go

“During a bubble, assets typically trade at a price, or within a price range, that greatly exceeds the asset's intrinsic value (the price does not align with the fundamentals of the asset).”

 

[MonsterDonkey]

About 45 min north of you in NMB. What type of town is West Jefferson?

Very small with a quaint little downtown. Some cool little shops & hellacious indoor Farmers Market. About 30min NNE of Boone. Just wanted to be a little off the beaten path but with close access to Boone, Sugar, Beech, etc. Beautiful area as are most of the NC mtns.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

How could sales not be reflective of value? You sound like a tax collector.

See 2007-2010 for a recent historical perspective

 

[Ttuplm05]

Crazy in north Texas. House 3 doors down listed for $215/sqft and pretty sure it's under contract.. Apply to my house and I'm honestly thinking about selling, and buying a couple of acres about 20 miles further out into the county. I paid around $120/sqft when I built in 2012

 

[Zgdaf]

My Brazilian coworker was bitching a few months ago about how all the lumber was being exported to the US and she couldn’t finish the floors in her condo which delayed her moving in.. lol, she was in further shock when I informed her most cities turned into worse than their favelas overnight and people are moving to burbs and beyond. Had to shatter her utopian view of the US.

 

[Zgdaf]

Thoughts on the real estate market thread...

Here are mine:

Real estate market is nuts right now across the board. Seems to me like we just went zooming past 2008 levels.

At some point I think its gonna take a nasty turn in the other direction because:
1. At some point banks will start foreclosing on all the loans that went belly up during covid
2. Once lumber prices normalize, new build prices will come back down forcing downward pressure on existing home prices
3. You have to think that rates will rise at some point....

OP, at some point the banks will stop giving out loans. There’s too much risk, and also helps crash the prices.

 

[usecd]

Georgetown. Just south of Pawleys Island. We like the Lake Lure area a lot too but West Jefferson area was where we really wanted to be.

I have a condo at BI. I’ll move to Gtown in 5 years.

 

[MonsterDonkey]

I have a condo at BI. I’ll move to Gtown in 5 years.

Awesome... Cool little town. I’m just across the bridge in Debordieu.