If Alberta ever announced a deal with the U.S., here’s what happens next
1/ The announcement Alberta and the U.S. announce exploratory talks on trade, energy, or regulatory alignment. Ottawa immediately condemns it.
2/ Markets react before politicians do Capital moves first. Alberta assets rise. Canadian risk premium increases. The dollar wobbles.
3/ Investment flows Energy, manufacturing, and resource capital starts flowing toward Alberta tied to U.S. demand. Not overnight chaos. Quiet repositioning.
4/ Talent follows capital Head offices, skilled workers, and entrepreneurs begin shifting toward where growth and wages are higher.
5/ Ottawa tries to block it Legal threats. Funding pressure. Regulatory pushback. This looks like Ottawa choosing control over jobs.
6/ Political legitimacy cracks Polls shift. Not because everyone wants to leave Canada but because people want results and leverage.
7/ The domino problem Other provinces ask why Alberta gets access they don’t. Saskatchewan aligns. Business groups in Ontario and B.C. revolt internally.
8/ Canada’s economic model breaks Canada relies on regulation, transfers, housing, and population growth. Alberta thriving outside that system exposes the weakness.
9/ The comparison effect Canadians watch a nearby jurisdiction get richer faster. That comparison is politically lethal.
10/ The real endgame The threat isn’t Alberta leaving.
The threat is Alberta proving a different model works.