Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

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Sgfeer said:
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nypost.com

Trump’s ‘Garden of Heroes,’ including black Americans, won’t be in New York — thanks to the #Resistance

New York’s political class, out of step as usual with the popular mood, thinks it’s still 2017, and that its job is to “#Resist.”
nypost.com nypost.com

nypost.com

No going back: The left will fail in trying to reverse Trump’s DEI death sentence

Americans bid farewell to DEI: The left is unlikely to reverse the fatal blow that President Donald Trump dealt this system of state-sponsored racism.
nypost.com nypost.com

nypost.com

‘Mad as hell’ Canadians cancel US travel en masse as trade war escalates

The next front in Canada’s trade war against the US is being waged in airports, gas stations and gift shops, as Canadians cancel their American vacations en masse – even enlisting high schoolers in…
nypost.com nypost.com
^^bet they'll still come across for health care though, cut that off and attitudes will change

nypost.com

Kathie Lee Gifford says Trump saved her and newborn daughter from ‘psychopathic murderer’ in the ‘90s

In 1994, Trump sent his helicopter to fly Gifford and her newborn daughter to his hotel so they could evade a stalker who threatened to kill her.
nypost.com nypost.com
 
I am late to the game with Grok. Ive had a paid sub for ChatGPT since it launched. But I am really liking the output from grok for research. Fuck now I’ve probably gotta pay $40 a month for this.

Let’s revisit the first hypothesis—that the Trump administration is intentionally attempting to bankrupt the US dollar to eliminate the national debt—and analyze the implications of incorporating Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683) and the related context about the Senate and House budget resolutions. This post highlights the concern that both chambers have passed budget bills ignoring the deficit, potentially exacerbating the national debt crisis and aligning with a strategy of fiscal irresponsibility that could support dollar devaluation. Here’s how this impacts the original hypothesis and the broader analysis.
Assuming the US dollar retains its reserve currency status in all cases—despite the Trump administration’s hypothetical strategy to bankrupt the dollar and the fiscal recklessness highlighted in Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683)—significantly alters the analysis. This assumption implies that, no matter how aggressively the administration pursues devaluation (via massive deficits, money printing, or low interest rates), global markets and economies will continue to rely on the dollar as the primary currency for international trade, reserves, and debt settlement. Let’s revisit the implications for the original hypothesis, timeline, and investment strategy under this constraint.
Revised Assumptions and Implications
  • Dollar’s Reserve Status Intact: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, with central banks, governments, and institutions holding it in large quantities (e.g., $6.4 trillion in foreign reserves as of 2024, per IMF data). Global reliance on the dollar for trade (e.g., oil priced in USD) and $14 trillion in offshore dollar-denominated debt (per BitDegree) ensures its status, even under severe devaluation pressure.
  • Limits on Devaluation: The administration’s attempt to “bankrupt” the dollar to erase the national debt would face natural constraints. A collapsing dollar would initially trigger sell-offs, but the Milkshake Theory dynamics—global capital flowing back to the dollar for safety—would prevent a permanent loss of reserve status. The dollar might weaken temporarily (e.g., DXY dropping below 90), but it would rebound due to its systemic importance.
  • Fiscal Policy Impact: The Senate and House budget resolutions (ignoring deficits, potentially adding $515 billion+ to deficits over 10 years) would still drive inflation and short-term dollar weakness, but the dollar’s reserve status would stabilize it long-term, limiting the “bankruptcy” strategy’s success.
  • Inflation and Market Response: Inflation could spike (e.g., 5-15% annually) due to deficits and money supply growth, but the dollar’s reserve status would attract capital inflows, mitigating extreme devaluation and supporting US assets.
Implications for the Original Hypothesis
  1. Devaluation Strategy Limited
    • The administration’s goal to bankrupt the dollar to eliminate the $36 trillion national debt becomes less feasible. While deficits and inflation could erode the debt’s real value, the dollar’s reserve status ensures it can’t collapse entirely. Global demand would pull it back, preventing hyperinflation or a loss of purchasing power sufficient to “zero out” the debt.
    • Instead, the strategy might achieve partial debt reduction through moderate inflation (e.g., 5-10% annually), but the dollar would remain functional as a reserve currency, limiting the extent of devaluation.
  2. Timeline Adjustment
    • Phase One (Devaluation): Still begins in Q1 2025 with aggressive deficit spending and monetary expansion. However, the dollar’s reserve status caps the devaluation, keeping DXY above, say, 85-90. Phase One lasts 12-18 months, ending by Q3 2026 (July-September 2026), as inflation pressures build and global markets adjust.
    • Phase Two (Milkshake Rally): Starts sooner, around Q2 2026 (April-June 2026), as global capital flows back to the dollar due to its reserve status and safety, even amidst US fiscal chaos. The rally is stronger and more sustained because the dollar’s status ensures long-term demand, compressing the devaluation phase.
  3. Reduced Risk of Reserve Status Loss
    • With reserve status guaranteed, there’s no risk of de-dollarization (e.g., BRICS nations abandoning the dollar for trade). This eliminates long-term threats to US assets and reinforces the Milkshake effect, making US equities, bonds, and real estate more attractive long-term.
  4. Inflation Management
    • The Fed would likely intervene with rate hikes or tapering to control inflation (e.g., targeting 2-3% CPI), ensuring the dollar remains stable. This could temper devaluation but accelerate the Milkshake rally as higher US rates attract foreign capital.
Revised Investment Strategy
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the portfolio shifts toward US-centric assets sooner, as the risk of a permanent dollar collapse diminishes. The focus remains on hedging short-term inflation and devaluation while positioning for a robust Milkshake rally. Here’s the adjusted macro portfolio breakdown:
  • Gold and Precious Metals: 15% (down from 25%)
    • Rationale: Still a hedge against initial inflation and dollar weakness, but less critical long-term with the dollar’s reserve status intact.
    • Example: 10% gold, 5% silver.
  • Commodities: 10% (down from 20%)
    • Rationale: Less exposure needed as dollar weakness is temporary and offset by reserve status; focus on short-term inflation plays.
    • Example: 5% oil/energy, 5% agriculture.
  • Foreign Equities: 5% (down from 5%)
    • Rationale: Minimal exposure due to dollar strength and Milkshake effect hurting non-US markets; focus on defensive markets (e.g., Japan, Switzerland).
    • Example: 3% Japan, 2% Switzerland.
  • Cryptocurrencies: 10% (down from 15%)
    • Rationale: Reduced need for fiat currency hedges with dollar stability; still a high-upside play but less critical.
    • Example: 7% Bitcoin, 3% Ethereum.
  • Real Estate: 20% (unchanged)
    • Rationale: US real estate thrives in inflation and benefits from dollar strength; maintain international exposure minimally.
    • Example: 15% US REITs, 5% international REITs.
  • US Equities: 30% (up from 20%)
    • Rationale: Stronger position for Milkshake-driven capital inflows and dollar stability; focus on growth and dividend-paying stocks.
    • Example: 20% tech/growth ETFs (e.g., QQQ), 10% value/dividend ETFs (e.g., SCHD).
  • Foreign Currencies/Cash: 5% (down from 3%)
    • Rationale: Limited need for currency diversification; maintain Swiss Franc or cash for liquidity.
    • Example: FXF ETF or cash equivalents.
  • US Treasury Bonds (Short-Term): 5% (new addition)
    • Rationale: Safe haven during devaluation, with potential gains if the Fed hikes rates; short-term to avoid long-term inflation risk.
    • Example: 2-year or 5-year Treasuries.
Strategic Rationale
  • Short-Term (Devaluation Phase, Q1 2025–Q3 2026): Focus on gold, commodities, and crypto to hedge inflation and mild dollar weakness, but with reduced exposure since the dollar won’t collapse.
  • Long-Term (Milkshake Rally, Q2 2026 onward): Tilt heavily toward US equities, real estate, and short-term bonds, capitalizing on dollar strength and global capital inflows.
  • Safety and Opportunity: The dollar’s reserve status ensures stability, reducing risk to US assets while offering growth from Milkshake dynamics.
Risks to Monitor
  • Inflation Overshoot: Even with reserve status, deficits could drive inflation above 10%, hurting fixed-income assets unless the Fed acts decisively.
  • Market Whiplash: Short-term dollar sell-offs followed by rapid rallies could create volatility, requiring active portfolio adjustments.
  • Policy Missteps: If the administration overextends deficits (e.g., $3+ trillion annually), inflation could test the dollar’s stability, even with reserve status.
Final Thoughts on the Hypothesis
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the administration’s devaluation strategy is constrained to moderate inflation (5-10%) rather than “bankrupting” the dollar. The national debt’s real value would erode partially, but the dollar’s global role prevents a full collapse. The timeline accelerates slightly, and the investment strategy pivots to US assets earlier and more aggressively. This assumption makes the Milkshake rally more certain and robust, solidifying the dollar’s dominance while limiting devaluation risks.
Does this align with your perspective, or would you like to explore specific adjustments or scenarios further?
 
Edgehollow said:
Had this same conversation with my wife, who is also a federal employee. I hate that @AmericanViking is losing his job. I do feel that there are people/positions that can be handled remotely and the mandatory office thing is a bit asinine. But I also understand that there are way more individuals that abused it than were a benefit because of it.

Back in the olden days when I was in school, teachers used to punish the class when there were a couple of fuck up kids. Kind of the same principle here, just more real life consequences.
Click to expand...

You’re right man. Still wouldn’t change my vote. The country my kids inherit will be better off
 
GarneT&GolD1978 said:
I’m at the point of literally ZFG.

I don’t care who in my family and circle of friends is sleeping.

I don’t care who in my family and circle of fiends is awake.

I just don’t care. If they’re asleep, I keep conversations trivial, meaningless, no substance, a facade of a relationship, “motel art”…

If they’re awake; we speak and share the news of the day.

I also don’t give a shit about the sleeping bastards’ journey of awakening. Several have come to me because they remember me saying something 2-3 years ago. I just laugh and tell them I was just fucking around “back then”…

Just like no man can “save you” from the damnation of hell (Eph 2:8.9), I can’t teach them everything I’ve busted my ass and sacrificed to learn over the last 10 fucking years in 5 minutes. I pray they have as much thirst as I have and they start to dedicate 2-3 hours every fucking day of their lives to understand it all (just like we all have in here).

There is no easy button to awakening. As a boss I say to my folks - bring me your problems but also bring me your solutions. As a family member or friend, I’ll say (theoretically) show me you know something and we’ll have a conversation…

Hope this helps.
Click to expand...
This helps, thanks. So…about those trips to Seattle. Any details?
 
MortgageHorn said:
Click to expand...

She was installed by those making money off the cartels and the drugs, guns and people they sell. No way a Jewish woman gets elected in a country which is 94% Catholic. She will lose if she fights Trump on this.

BamaRidger said:
Click to expand...

It's been my observation and belief that stuff certain sections of the gov't use, legal and illegal and much none of us have even thought about, on anyone citizen or not to get what they want.

ttyh said:
It's insane. Their brains are broken from the propaganda.

Click to expand...

Those liberals should be the first ones sent.
 
AmericanViking said:
I know most everyone here is loving federal employees losing their careers.

I get it. But not all of us are bad. I’ve spent 21 years with the military and VA. I’ll be fired around 28 July. All because of my location and not having an office to report to. An office that never existed. I’m expected to sell my home and relocate
Click to expand...
That happens in corporate America as well. My wife retired from Dell after they made her a remote employee and after 2 years required her to return to office. We sold our house in Round Rock and moved to the lake. Luckily she was ready to leave.
 
ShaolinNole said:
I am late to the game with Grok. Ive had a paid sub for ChatGPT since it launched. But I am really liking the output from grok for research. Fuck now I’ve probably gotta pay $40 a month for this.

Let’s revisit the first hypothesis—that the Trump administration is intentionally attempting to bankrupt the US dollar to eliminate the national debt—and analyze the implications of incorporating Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683) and the related context about the Senate and House budget resolutions. This post highlights the concern that both chambers have passed budget bills ignoring the deficit, potentially exacerbating the national debt crisis and aligning with a strategy of fiscal irresponsibility that could support dollar devaluation. Here’s how this impacts the original hypothesis and the broader analysis.
Assuming the US dollar retains its reserve currency status in all cases—despite the Trump administration’s hypothetical strategy to bankrupt the dollar and the fiscal recklessness highlighted in Scott Adams’ post (Post: 1893289023109767683)—significantly alters the analysis. This assumption implies that, no matter how aggressively the administration pursues devaluation (via massive deficits, money printing, or low interest rates), global markets and economies will continue to rely on the dollar as the primary currency for international trade, reserves, and debt settlement. Let’s revisit the implications for the original hypothesis, timeline, and investment strategy under this constraint.
Revised Assumptions and Implications
  • Dollar’s Reserve Status Intact: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency, with central banks, governments, and institutions holding it in large quantities (e.g., $6.4 trillion in foreign reserves as of 2024, per IMF data). Global reliance on the dollar for trade (e.g., oil priced in USD) and $14 trillion in offshore dollar-denominated debt (per BitDegree) ensures its status, even under severe devaluation pressure.
  • Limits on Devaluation: The administration’s attempt to “bankrupt” the dollar to erase the national debt would face natural constraints. A collapsing dollar would initially trigger sell-offs, but the Milkshake Theory dynamics—global capital flowing back to the dollar for safety—would prevent a permanent loss of reserve status. The dollar might weaken temporarily (e.g., DXY dropping below 90), but it would rebound due to its systemic importance.
  • Fiscal Policy Impact: The Senate and House budget resolutions (ignoring deficits, potentially adding $515 billion+ to deficits over 10 years) would still drive inflation and short-term dollar weakness, but the dollar’s reserve status would stabilize it long-term, limiting the “bankruptcy” strategy’s success.
  • Inflation and Market Response: Inflation could spike (e.g., 5-15% annually) due to deficits and money supply growth, but the dollar’s reserve status would attract capital inflows, mitigating extreme devaluation and supporting US assets.
Implications for the Original Hypothesis
  1. Devaluation Strategy Limited
    • The administration’s goal to bankrupt the dollar to eliminate the $36 trillion national debt becomes less feasible. While deficits and inflation could erode the debt’s real value, the dollar’s reserve status ensures it can’t collapse entirely. Global demand would pull it back, preventing hyperinflation or a loss of purchasing power sufficient to “zero out” the debt.
    • Instead, the strategy might achieve partial debt reduction through moderate inflation (e.g., 5-10% annually), but the dollar would remain functional as a reserve currency, limiting the extent of devaluation.
  2. Timeline Adjustment
    • Phase One (Devaluation): Still begins in Q1 2025 with aggressive deficit spending and monetary expansion. However, the dollar’s reserve status caps the devaluation, keeping DXY above, say, 85-90. Phase One lasts 12-18 months, ending by Q3 2026 (July-September 2026), as inflation pressures build and global markets adjust.
    • Phase Two (Milkshake Rally): Starts sooner, around Q2 2026 (April-June 2026), as global capital flows back to the dollar due to its reserve status and safety, even amidst US fiscal chaos. The rally is stronger and more sustained because the dollar’s status ensures long-term demand, compressing the devaluation phase.
  3. Reduced Risk of Reserve Status Loss
    • With reserve status guaranteed, there’s no risk of de-dollarization (e.g., BRICS nations abandoning the dollar for trade). This eliminates long-term threats to US assets and reinforces the Milkshake effect, making US equities, bonds, and real estate more attractive long-term.
  4. Inflation Management
    • The Fed would likely intervene with rate hikes or tapering to control inflation (e.g., targeting 2-3% CPI), ensuring the dollar remains stable. This could temper devaluation but accelerate the Milkshake rally as higher US rates attract foreign capital.
Revised Investment Strategy
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the portfolio shifts toward US-centric assets sooner, as the risk of a permanent dollar collapse diminishes. The focus remains on hedging short-term inflation and devaluation while positioning for a robust Milkshake rally. Here’s the adjusted macro portfolio breakdown:
  • Gold and Precious Metals: 15% (down from 25%)
    • Rationale: Still a hedge against initial inflation and dollar weakness, but less critical long-term with the dollar’s reserve status intact.
    • Example: 10% gold, 5% silver.
  • Commodities: 10% (down from 20%)
    • Rationale: Less exposure needed as dollar weakness is temporary and offset by reserve status; focus on short-term inflation plays.
    • Example: 5% oil/energy, 5% agriculture.
  • Foreign Equities: 5% (down from 5%)
    • Rationale: Minimal exposure due to dollar strength and Milkshake effect hurting non-US markets; focus on defensive markets (e.g., Japan, Switzerland).
    • Example: 3% Japan, 2% Switzerland.
  • Cryptocurrencies: 10% (down from 15%)
    • Rationale: Reduced need for fiat currency hedges with dollar stability; still a high-upside play but less critical.
    • Example: 7% Bitcoin, 3% Ethereum.
  • Real Estate: 20% (unchanged)
    • Rationale: US real estate thrives in inflation and benefits from dollar strength; maintain international exposure minimally.
    • Example: 15% US REITs, 5% international REITs.
  • US Equities: 30% (up from 20%)
    • Rationale: Stronger position for Milkshake-driven capital inflows and dollar stability; focus on growth and dividend-paying stocks.
    • Example: 20% tech/growth ETFs (e.g., QQQ), 10% value/dividend ETFs (e.g., SCHD).
  • Foreign Currencies/Cash: 5% (down from 3%)
    • Rationale: Limited need for currency diversification; maintain Swiss Franc or cash for liquidity.
    • Example: FXF ETF or cash equivalents.
  • US Treasury Bonds (Short-Term): 5% (new addition)
    • Rationale: Safe haven during devaluation, with potential gains if the Fed hikes rates; short-term to avoid long-term inflation risk.
    • Example: 2-year or 5-year Treasuries.
Strategic Rationale
  • Short-Term (Devaluation Phase, Q1 2025–Q3 2026): Focus on gold, commodities, and crypto to hedge inflation and mild dollar weakness, but with reduced exposure since the dollar won’t collapse.
  • Long-Term (Milkshake Rally, Q2 2026 onward): Tilt heavily toward US equities, real estate, and short-term bonds, capitalizing on dollar strength and global capital inflows.
  • Safety and Opportunity: The dollar’s reserve status ensures stability, reducing risk to US assets while offering growth from Milkshake dynamics.
Risks to Monitor
  • Inflation Overshoot: Even with reserve status, deficits could drive inflation above 10%, hurting fixed-income assets unless the Fed acts decisively.
  • Market Whiplash: Short-term dollar sell-offs followed by rapid rallies could create volatility, requiring active portfolio adjustments.
  • Policy Missteps: If the administration overextends deficits (e.g., $3+ trillion annually), inflation could test the dollar’s stability, even with reserve status.
Final Thoughts on the Hypothesis
With the dollar retaining reserve status, the administration’s devaluation strategy is constrained to moderate inflation (5-10%) rather than “bankrupting” the dollar. The national debt’s real value would erode partially, but the dollar’s global role prevents a full collapse. The timeline accelerates slightly, and the investment strategy pivots to US assets earlier and more aggressively. This assumption makes the Milkshake rally more certain and robust, solidifying the dollar’s dominance while limiting devaluation risks.
Does this align with your perspective, or would you like to explore specific adjustments or scenarios further?
Click to expand...


Live Look at Young @ShaolinNole with the Master​

What it say about a man, Young Grasshopper, that "can snatch a pebble from my hand", but pay $40 a month for something that is fucking free?

kungfu.jpg
 
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