Master Thread Dance Your Cares Away/Fraggle/Law Abiding Citizens

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Brookfield Defaults Again

This trip down memory lane was wandered with intent and purpose. Because this week Bloomberg reported that Brookfield Corporation, one of the largest commercial real estate companies in the world, has defaulted on $161.4 million of office building mortgages.

These office buildings are mostly in Washington, DC. However, this Brookfield default comes just two months after its much larger default of $784 million in mortgages for two office towers in Los Angeles. These include our old haunts at 555 West 5th Street and 777 South Figueroa Street.

The reasons behind the defaults are generally straightforward.

The double whammy of higher vacancy rates post-Covid and higher interest rates have turned these buildings from profit generating ventures into huge gaping money pits.

Here are the grim particulars from Bloomberg:

“In the Washington metro area, office property values have plunged 36 percent through March from a year earlier, on par with declines nationwide, according to the Green Street index.
“Among the dozen buildings in the Brookfield portfolio with the $161.4 million debt, occupancy rates averaged 52 percent in 2022, down from 79 percent in 2018 when the debt was underwritten, according to the report. Monthly payments on the mortgage’s floating-rate debt jumped to about $880,000 in April from just over $300,000 a year earlier as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.”
In short, as rental income declined due to higher vacancy rates and monthly mortgage payments jumped over 190 percent, throwing good money after bad became untenable for Brookfield. Default was the better option.

Fake Insurance

The fact is there’s simply too much unused office space. This is not a situation that will magically change.

Maybe a savvy developer will come in and complete an office-to-residential conversion. But that’s not Brookfield’s game. And whoever does it will only take the risk at a much lower price and with much better terms.

In the meantime, who loses?

According to Federal Reserve data, and as noted by Fortune, 67 percent of all commercial real estate loans are held by small banks and regional banks. Consequently, more debt defaults in the commercial real estate market could lead to more small and regional bank blowups.

If you have deposits under $250,000 in a bank that goes bust, you are protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). But how safe is your money, really?

At the end of 2022, the FDIC reported its Deposit Insurance Fund had a balance of $128 billion. This comes to a reserve ratio of 1.27 percent of the total insured deposits.

By our estimation, insurance reserves of 1.27 percent of potential obligations are not real insurance. Rather, these reserves are fake insurance that pays for an extremely fragile trust which says, ‘if you don’t pull your deposits, I won’t pull mine.’

In a real panic, FDIC reserves would be vaporized in less than a day.

Presumably, some of these bad mortgages have been packaged up in tranches as collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and sold to pension funds and other investors. Could this be the initial alarm bell of a financial crisis akin to the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) crisis of 2007-09?

If the report from the $306 billion California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) is any indication, then the answer is a definitive yes. Specifically, this week it was revealed that CalSTRS is preparing to write down the value of its $52 billion commercial real estate portfolio.

From what we can tell, these bad investments were not made via CLOs.
Nonetheless, you can already smell the rot buried in commercial real estate CLOs. We’ll have to do some more digging to unearth the decay.

What Brookfield’s Default Has to Do with You

Today, however, there’s a more important question to answer. What does Brookfield’s default on these commercial properties have to do with you?

You may not yet realize it. But these defaults have everything to do with several unfavorable factors that are currently working against you. These include elevated consumer price inflation and relatively higher financing costs. And here’s how they’re making your life less agreeable…

The two most common purchases by the average person that require financing are for automobiles and houses. Relatively higher interest rates make the debt payments on these purchases incredibly burdensome.

Consider automobiles, for instance. According to the Washington Post:

“The average interest rate for a new vehicle was 7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.4 percent a year earlier. That’s the highest level since 2008, according to new data from Edmunds, a car shopping website. For used vehicles, the average jumped from 7.8 percent to 11.1 percent.”
This is why the monthly payment for roughly 17 percent – or about 1 in 6 – of new vehicle loans in Q1 2023 was over $1,000 bucks.

At that price it really doesn’t matter what your income level is.

One thousand dollars a month for a car payment is a significant pile of money. So, too, is $730 per month, which was the average monthly payment for a new vehicle in the first quarter.

In all seriousness, do not sign up for one of these monster car payments. This will ruin your life for decades to come. Sooner or later, something must give in the way of lower car prices. Don’t lock yourself in to this misery.

Not only does a monster car payment cut into people’s monthly budgets. It also limits their ability to save and invest for the future. And if people aren’t saving and investing for the future, they’re not building wealth. To the contrary, like Brookfield, they’re burning wealth.

To this end, we have a hunch that over the next couple of years vast numbers of people are going to experience the rush that comes when time simultaneously slows down and speeds up.

Not because they’ve committed a base jump off a skyscraper – though some will.

Rather, it’ll occur at the precise moment they come to the disturbing realization that they’re broker than broke.

* * *
 
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This seems like an effort by the establishment to rid themselves of Tucker. Even if it costs them losing a "lawsuit." This would effectively rid the news stations of another non liberal shill from main stream news for a little money. Not that many true conservatives believe Fox is anything but a liberal network now, they had Tucker and Gut to kind of keep a few million more viewers around. That ain't happening with Levin or Hannity. Both of those two have more than shown who they really are over the last couple years.
 
Bob Iger doubled down on opposition to the parents rights bill in Fl. He called out Desantis on a shareholder call. One of the callers actually asked him "i had a question but did I hear you right that you think pandering to a minority of a minority is more important than entertainment"?... and then Iger basically said yes and that he was putting gay employees ahead of shareholders.

LOL. Disney is fucked.

In a sane world, the board would have immediately removed Iger after those comments.
 
Yup. They did that a long time ago but this is kind of the cherry on top. When they let uniparty members control certain content stuff (Paul Ryan being anywhere near this was a sign of the uniparty coming together to try an destroy another conservative outlet) and when Rupert allowed his liberal children and children in laws take over the day to day, they jumped the shark. The funny thing is, Tucker is not even a conservative. He just isn't a uniparty guy and that goes against the machine.
I would have figured Jesse would have been the first one canned.
 
It just seems like some of the biggest corporate offenders are being forced to destroy themselves. Almost as if this were a movie and the good guys are making them crash their own companies on purpose.

I’d like to believe the “good guys” are winning but nothing indicating that is the case.

Woke mob turned AB into the preferred beer of trannies.

They just axed Tucker from mainstream media. Most normies looked to Tucker for dialogue and information. He reached a huge audience, and pushed back on every front possible.

That is now gone from the mainstream. Most normies aren’t going to look for other sources outside of their bubble (ie cable tv).
 
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