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Consider the standard deviation of Bitcoin’s monthly returns since the beginning of 2016: It is an incredible 25.3%. Those of you who remember your Statistics 101 will immediately realize what this means: Assuming the future is like the past, you can expect 95% of its monthly returns to fall within a range that is two standard deviations above or below its mean—a range that is more than 100 percentage points.
Note carefully that this is the expected range for monthly returns. Unless you are addicted to risk, you shouldn’t be trying to finance your basic living expenses in retirement with an asset this volatile.
To put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective, consider that the standard deviation of gold’s monthly returns over the same period: 3.9%. That therefore means that, assuming the future is like the past, we can expect 95% of gold’s future monthly returns to fall within a range that is 7.8 percentage points above or below its monthly mean—a total range of 15.6 percentage points. Most of us would consider that to itself be risky, but it seems like child’s play compared with Bitcoin’s.
Note carefully that this is the expected range for monthly returns. Unless you are addicted to risk, you shouldn’t be trying to finance your basic living expenses in retirement with an asset this volatile.
To put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective, consider that the standard deviation of gold’s monthly returns over the same period: 3.9%. That therefore means that, assuming the future is like the past, we can expect 95% of gold’s future monthly returns to fall within a range that is 7.8 percentage points above or below its monthly mean—a total range of 15.6 percentage points. Most of us would consider that to itself be risky, but it seems like child’s play compared with Bitcoin’s.
Bitcoin’s role in retirement portfolios
This cryptocurrency is up more than 60% just since the beginning of the year
www.marketwatch.com