@noelnole
Gut feel is start with Puerto Vallarta but if they kick off shit in Los Cabos where you have Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Jose - that to me is best bang for the buck - most expensive properties are there. the number one realtor there his wife is a friend of mine - he routinely sells homes from $10 Million to $30 Million USD If they don't hit Cabo then they may not take a hit since Baja is separate from the mainland of Mexico and is seen as "safer"
It will take a this thing settling down first and then I think you see a wave of people that say "I'm out"
Since most gringos generalize and think Mexico is all the same - there are a lot of condos in Cancun Tulum Playa del Carmen - highest concentration there so likely a great spot as the most supply would theoretically hit the market there.
All this is speculation maybe property owners hold on down there but historically people jump ship.
Tourism is a huge part of their economy they cannot let this thing linger long or it gets worse and prices fall further faster.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) uses a broader definition that includes indirect and induced effects (e.g., supply chain impacts, employee spending). Their 2025 projections estimate the sector's total contribution at around 15.1% of GDP (about $281 billion USD), up from 14.9% in 2024. This higher figure captures the full economic ripple effects, while INEGI's is more focused on direct tourism activities.
Every real estate agent in Mexico is having the same Oh Shit moment I had in the 2007-2008 mortgage collapse.
Imagine 15% of your economy crashing - that's a MAJOR issue like a severe depression. And a lot of unhappy unemployed people - that leads to a revolution - maybe they need that.