The EU will collapse
Martin Armstrong: EU On the Brink, War Risk Next Year
Recorded on October 22, 2025.
Economist and forecaster Martin Armstrong (ArmstrongEconomics) joins Natural Resource Stocks to break down capital flows, the EU’s structural flaws, banking risk, and why his war and euro models are flashing a panic cycle next year. We dig into sanctions blowback, BRICS, gold as geopolitical insurance, and his provocative peace-and-industry proposal around rare earths.
Key Topics:• AI froth vs. “flight-to-safety” bid into the Dow during geopolitical risk.• Why the EU’s failure to consolidate debt dooms its bond market plumbing.
• How member-level debt holdings create contagion across EU banks.
• Germany’s energy shock, EV mandates, and shrinking industrial base.
• Migration shocks + recession = rising civil unrest.
• Gold moves on geopolitics more than CPI; central bank buying logic.
• Sanctions, SWIFT removal, and why that catalyzed BRICS realignment.
• 2026 “panic” risk in war and the euro.
• A rare-earths JV peace gambit: US capital + Russian know-how.
Chapters
00:00 Intro: “watching the world go insane”
00:58 Markets: AI bubble vs. safety flows into Dow
06:24 Will the EU collapse? Debt consolidation failure & banking risk
09:33 Germany’s policy spiral: energy, EVs, and jobs
12:03 Migration in downturns → unrest dynamics
20:57 US banks, gold’s geopolitics, and capital flows
24:37 SWIFT, sanctions, and the BRICS response
26:42 NATO talk, EU choices: war distraction vs. reckoning
27:53 Pensions, negative rates, and policy traps
33:45 Models: global conflict risk next year
38:12 Year-end into 2026: “panic” cycles in war and euro
41:20 Ukraine–NATO–EU political pressure anecdotes
42:58 Capital controls creeping across EU states
44:07 A peace plan brief for Washington (rare earths focus)
54:50 Where to read the proposal (ArmstrongEconomics)
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