To add to this line of thinking.
If energy is ultimately the root driver for Bitcoin, then what happens if energy is either unlimited or severely restricted?
If energy is truly unlimited, then the unit cost to produce Bitcoin goes nearly to zero and the amount supplied is infinite.
If it is severely restricted (i.e. Green New Deal), then underlying support structure falls completely out of the bottom making Bitcoin virtually worthless.
What are we missing?
@Cyberty @Hoosier in Mad Town You should research halving. Basic concept is that they get continually harder to mine, therefore theoretically doubling the cost to value of mining every 4 years, regardless of energy costs. It will take until 2140 to mine them all. Additionally, there is a large number of bitcoins that are unavailable because the keys have been lost forever. Gold mining, on the other hand, creates more available gold with the increased effort to mine, basically being ~3% dilutive every year. Gold has a bit of utility to it, but really not to the degree it is used as a store of wealth. Trust is the common bond with gold and btc.
The biggest threat to to BTC might actually also be the biggest reason people pursue it; threat of regulation or outlawing it altogether. If people can pursue it openly, and if all currencies around the world crash, the really big money will go somewhere. The second biggest threat is eventually quantum computing but I've read some great articles on why we don't have to worry about that until quantum computing reaches about 16x of their current power.
Currently we are seeing that the stock market will fuck common people and so people will look for alternatives, until they introduce blockchain and some basic reforms. Fed banks will create their own cryptos but they will be dilutive, so what's the point other than elimination of crime (other than for the bankers) if you can create inflation. XRP is still on the table to be the technology selected, although you can't buy it. I didn't sell any of mine, even though it might be a total loss. Also, I do think the BTC will decrease if the market does, because people will be selling btc to cover other losses and margin calls.
Here's a guy that has done some stock to flow modeling on BTC, which really has the benefit of design and publicity, although it is not the technically best coin. If people trust it, people will gravitate towards it.
Website of PlanB@100trillionUSD, institutional investor and creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow valuation model
100trillionusd.github.io