I was reading a book on nuclear strategy, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy by Lawrence Fredman, that was written in the 1980s.
At one point the West believed that they did not need a conventional buildup. They would just rely on nuclear weapons as they are cheaper than a conventional buildup. Reagan understood that a conventional buildup gave more options and allowed a nuclear war to be avoided.
Well I worry out leaders today can't even do a conventional buildup. Hence, they will have more reliance on nuclear weapons.
The truth is the West will not allow itself to lose. When you start talking about a rising China power, no one will say it, but the West will not allow them to be the supreme power.
Hence, a nuclear war is not necessarily likely, but it is within the cards.