Any letup in the car market anytime soon?

[Pete_Cawthon]

I'm in the market for a new/used car, maybe two, and was wondering if anyone had any inside info on when the car market bubble might recede. Prices are stupid right now and if they're going to drop anytime soon, I can wait. Or is it just going to get worse?

 

[thenick_ttu]

I ordered a truck from Ford earlier this summer and finally picked it up last week. Everyone at the dealership said they expect it to get worse before it gets better. They said we’re nowhere near the end of this thing.

 

[shiv]

I'm in the market for a new/used car, maybe two, and was wondering if anyone had any inside info on when the car market bubble might recede. Prices are stupid right now and if they're going to drop anytime soon, I can wait. Or is it just going to get worse?

How much have new cars gone up in the last year or so? I know the used car market is absurd

 

[Pete_Cawthon]

well...crap

 

[Cre8ive]

I'm in the market for a new/used car, maybe two, and was wondering if anyone had any inside info on when the car market bubble might recede. Prices are stupid right now and if they're going to drop anytime soon, I can wait. Or is it just going to get worse?

Gonna take a long time - Chineses are moving behind the scenes to control the world "chip' supply coming out of Taiwan.

 

[ChicagoFats]

I'm in the market for a new/used car, maybe two, and was wondering if anyone had any inside info on when the car market bubble might recede. Prices are stupid right now and if they're going to drop anytime soon, I can wait. Or is it just going to get worse?

I think its going to get worse before it gets better. The inlfation data is coming in at 6-9% this year and the demand for computer chips is just not going to stop with that amount of inlfation.

When interest rates rise is when you will see the market ease and thats not expected for another year to 18 months. I see the market being tight for another 3-4 years

 

[ChicagoFats]

How much have new cars gone up in the last year or so? I know the used car market is absurd

You pay full sticker price, no negotiation, and you are waiting 3-4 months to get the car. Been looking for a while for a new car for my wife. I actually had a dealer call me the other day and said he wanted an $8k "Market surplus" charge on a new tahoe. I laughed at him and hung up.

 

[thenick_ttu]

You pay full sticker price, no negotiation, and you are waiting 3-4 months to get the car. Been looking for a while for a new car for my wife. I actually had a dealer call me the other day and said he wanted an $8k "Market surplus" charge on a new tahoe. I laughed at him and hung up.

I can confirm this. When I ordered my truck from Ford, I asked if there were any specials or discounts. My salesman told me the special was that they would not markup the price from what it said when I built it on the website. It took 4 months from order to delivery.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Gonna take a long time - Chineses are moving behind the scenes to control the world "chip' supply coming out of Taiwan.

Big deals made a couple weeks ago to bring that technology to the States. The plant broke ground in Tennessee or TX I can't remember which.

All I know is someone offered me 4k for a 2003 dodge work truck w 215k miles. I bought it for 1k.

You need to hit old folks homes,churches or obituaries to find a deal

 

[Rebarcock.]

I think its going to get worse before it gets better. The inlfation data is coming in at 6-9% this year and the demand for computer chips is just not going to stop with that amount of inlfation.

When interest rates rise is when you will see the market ease and thats not expected for another year to 18 months. I see the market being tight for another 3-4 years

I read YOY inflation is 9.7% currently. But if you used the inflation index from 1982 it would be just under 15%. Tifwiw

 

[OrangenBlue98]

Who thought shutting down the world for two years was a good idea.

 

[ttyh]

Big deals made a couple weeks ago to bring that technology to the States. The plant broke ground in Tennessee or TX I can't remember which.

All I know is someone offered me 4k for a 2003 dodge work truck w 215k miles. I bought it for 1k.

You need to hit old folks homes,churches or obituaries to find a deal

Texas. Big Samsung plant in Taylor outside of Austin.

This thread prompted me to look up the two used vehicles we purchased about six months ago. Wow. The prices on both vehicles have risen even with us putting about 5k miles on each vehicle. With all of the craziness in the world, why not make your car an appreciating asset and suspend the whole concept of them being depreciating assets. Let’s go Brandon.

 

[GarnetPild]

I read YOY inflation is 9.7% currently. But if you used the inflation index from 1982 it would be just under 15%. Tifwiw

I think it is even higher than that. I heard like 6 months to a year ago that if we used the same calculations from 1980, that we would be at 15%. Seems worse now than 6+ months ago, just my opinion of course...Biden is so terrible, he is about to make us long for the Jimmy Carter days.☹

 

[shiv]

Texas. Big Samsung plant in Taylor outside of Austin.

This thread prompted me to look up the two used vehicles we purchased about six months ago. Wow. The prices on both vehicles have risen even with us putting about 5k miles on each vehicle. With all of the craziness in the world, why not make your car an appreciating asset and suspend the whole concept of them being depreciating assets. Let’s go Brandon.

I just looked and my wife's Highlander we bought earlier this year is $3k higher than what we paid for it. So much for depreciation driving off the lot.

 

[ChicagoFats]

I think it is even higher than that. I heard like 6 months to a year ago that if we used the same calculations from 1980, that we would be at 15%. Seems worse now than 6+ months ago, just my opinion of course...Biden is so terrible, he is about to make us long for the Jimmy Carter days.☹

Yeah, they manipulate the items in the basket of good to reflect a lower inflation, that has been going on for a long time. That is all coming to a head now though, can't hide it anymore.

Can the fed control the inflation? There is an old adage "don't fight the fed" and it pretty much has held true during my lifetime. Who knows what the future will bring.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Big deals made a couple weeks ago to bring that technology to the States. The plant broke ground in Tennessee or TX I can't remember which.

All I know is someone offered me 4k for a 2003 dodge work truck w 215k miles. I bought it for 1k.

You need to hit old folks homes,churches or obituaries to find a deal

Yes, the plant in Texas was a huge announcement for the United States. Still think it will be 3-4 years before that plant can be counted on the alleviate supply.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Who thought shutting down the world for two years was a good idea.

Big reason why steel has shot up in cost...
(We are paying 1100 per ton from the mill for rebar. On 11.3.20 we were selling a fabricated ton for 1000.00 per ton(
Since there were no vehicles on the road there no accidents. No accidents means no scrap. Same w appliances in that people were fixing older machines rather than buy new bc they did not want to spend money. They could repair for less and not owe anything. When there is not a ready supply of scrap- the cost to produce steel goes up.
We normally would hold a quote number for min 30 days. Now it is only good until the end of the month. Doesn't matter what day the quote goes out.
It will get scary when mid month increases start hitting. That will be when the end is nigh

 

[Rebarcock.]

Yes, the plant in Texas was a huge announcement for the United States. Still think it will be 3-4 years before that plant can be counted on the alleviate supply.

I read a while back construction done in 2 years. So 3-4 for product is probably right on

 

[Rebarcock.]

Yeah, they manipulate the items in the basket of good to reflect a lower inflation, that has been going on for a long time. That is all coming to a head now though, can't hide it anymore.

Can the fed control the inflation? There is an old adage "don't fight the fed" and it pretty much has held true during my lifetime. Who knows what the future will bring.

The fed damn near has to raise more than they want and faster too. But cooling the economy may be a bad approach. No work and escalating prices =stagflation.
Not sure how many people can withstand 3 more years of these sophomoric policies

 

[ChicagoFats]

The fed damn near has to raise more than they want and faster too. But cooling the economy may be a bad approach. No work and escalating prices =stagflation.
Not sure how many people can withstand 3 more years of these sophomoric policies

Yep, the question seems to be can the Fed control inflation or are they in a trap where if the raise interest rates it will crash the economy. Stay tuned to find out.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Yep, the question seems to be can the Fed control inflation or are they in a trap where if the raise interest rates it will crash the economy. Stay tuned to find out.

Kind of surprised they haven't jacked it up already. Is Powell the right guy to navigate this is my biggest question. Wonder what Greenspan would do

 

[Rebarcock.]

Forecast 35% by summer inflation

 

[TopHook]

I think its going to get worse before it gets better. The inlfation data is coming in at 6-9% this year and the demand for computer chips is just not going to stop with that amount of inlfation.

When interest rates rise is when you will see the market ease and thats not expected for another year to 18 months. I see the market being tight for another 3-4 years

Where are you getting those numbers from?

 

[Rebarcock.]

Texas. Big Samsung plant in Taylor outside of Austin.

This thread prompted me to look up the two used vehicles we purchased about six months ago. Wow. The prices on both vehicles have risen even with us putting about 5k miles on each vehicle. With all of the craziness in the world, why not make your car an appreciating asset and suspend the whole concept of them being depreciating assets. Let’s go Brandon.

Have a buddy off the boat from Ecuador. He couldn't understand when I was selling a used truck why I was getting less than when I bought it. In Ecuador if you buy a truck for 5k and drive it 5 yrs you sell it for 8k. Now it is making more sense. We are turning in to a banana republic

 

[Jayhacker]

My brother is CEO of a large financial institution with 14 locations. Every repo that he gets back is already spoken for by the local car dealers, all at retail prices.

 

[ttyh]

Have a buddy off the boat from Ecuador. He couldn't understand when I was selling a used truck why I was getting less than when I bought it. In Ecuador if you buy a truck for 5k and drive it 5 yrs you sell it for 8k. Now it is making more sense. We are turning in to a banana republic

Well that certainly is sobering.

 

[ChicagoFats]

Where are you getting those numbers from?

One inflation number came in at 5.9% on an annual basis last week. Another came it at 9% this morning, it was the producers price index i believe. CPI and PPI being the two biggest numbers in inflation. So thats where i chose those numbers.

The Fed meeting is tomorrow and there is talk they may be more aggressive in raising rates than they had previously hinted which is why markets have swooned the last couple days. Previous the Fed had said they would raise rates 3 times next year in 2022 and i believe that interest rate markest reflect that.

The 3-4 years back to normal i remember hearing in an interview from one of the CEO's of teh chip makers on CNBC a whilee back. Maybe Nvida ceo? not sure.

Just my educated guesses.

 

[Rebarcock.]

One inflation number came in at 5.9% on an annual basis last week. Another came it at 9% this morning, it was the producers price index i believe. CPI and PPI being the two biggest numbers in inflation. So thats where i chose those numbers.

The Fed meeting is tomorrow and there is talk they may be more aggressive in raising rates than they had previously hinted which is why markets have swooned the last couple days. Previous the Fed had said they would raise rates 3 times next year in 2022 and i believe that interest rate markest reflect that.

The 3-4 years back to normal i remember hearing in an interview from one of the CEO's of teh chip makers on CNBC a whilee back. Maybe Nvida ceo? not sure.

Just my educated guesses.

I can dig the article if it matters. It was Samsung building.
Ever think this shipping malfunction is intentional to back up Chyna as a way to back door their economy?

They may jump big and fast and everything screeches to a halt. That is what scares the piss outta me. I don't know if Powell is the guy. I can't tell ya sgit about him. I know the Fed has been sending conflicting messages from different districts over the past couple years

 

[GarnetPild]

I can dig the article if it matters. It was Samsung building.
Ever think this shipping malfunction is intentional to back up Chyna as a way to back door their economy?

They may jump big and fast and everything screeches to a halt. That is what scares the piss outta me. I don't know if Powell is the guy. I can't tell ya sgit about him. I know the Fed has been sending conflicting messages from different districts over the past couple years

I about half assume whatever is the worst for the average American is what the fed & Powell will do.

 

[Rebarcock.]

I about half assume whatever is the worst for the average American is what the fed & Powell will do.

Unknown now.
Powell was appt bt BDD.
He was kept by Xiden.
Xiden may have be more than inclined to accept that. Depends on where you are on habbenings. All we can do do is play the game. And by our numbers we can. AME/game/doge(doggy) I'm high vibing(Viking) right now

 

[GarnetPild]

Unknown now.
Powell was appt bt BDD.
He was kept by Xiden.
Xiden may have be more than inclined to accept that. Depends on where you are on habbenings. All we can do do is play the game. And by our numbers we can. AME/game/doge(doggy) I'm high vibing(Viking) right now...SKOL!

FIFY

 

[BigBucnNole]

One inflation number came in at 5.9% on an annual basis last week. Another came it at 9% this morning, it was the producers price index i believe. CPI and PPI being the two biggest numbers in inflation. So thats where i chose those numbers.

The Fed meeting is tomorrow and there is talk they may be more aggressive in raising rates than they had previously hinted which is why markets have swooned the last couple days. Previous the Fed had said they would raise rates 3 times next year in 2022 and i believe that interest rate markest reflect that.

The 3-4 years back to normal i remember hearing in an interview from one of the CEO's of teh chip makers on CNBC a whilee back. Maybe Nvida ceo? not sure.

Just my educated guesses.

We'll see what they do. Inflation is currently a consequence of glut/ supply shocks, not too much cash in the system. They screw the rates up, you'll get a situation where inputs are still expensive and then you have an additional cost of money being layered on top. Can't see that being good for anyone.

 

[Zgdaf]

For OP.

 

[hmt5000]

Ford worker is my next door neighbor. He doesn't think they are going back to normal before next summer at the earliest from what he's heard... and then they have to catch up demand after that.

 

[ChicagoFats]

We'll see what they do. Inflation is currently a consequence of glut/ supply shocks, not too much cash in the system. They screw the rates up, you'll get a situation where inputs are still expensive and then you have an additional cost of money being layered on top. Can't see that being good for anyone.

So you are saying the supply shocks are not caused by too much cash in the system? What movie are you watching?

 

[imprimis]

But, but, but, didn't the bankers say they expect everything to return to normal by March?

Maybe the new normal.

 

[BigBucnNole]

So you are saying the supply shocks are not caused by too much cash in the system? What movie are you watching?

No. Supply shocks can’t by definition be caused by too much money. Supply shocks are caused by the port closing during the lockdowns. Which in turn led to a knock on effect throwing the rest of the economy out of whack. Lockdowns led to manpower and container shortages which led to input shortages like micro ships, which in turn led to a shift into demand for other sources of supply, which leads to price increases.

Response to price increase and lockdowns here was more money. Stimulus checks, low interest, tax credits, and unemployment further exacerbated the situation by keeping demand high in the face of dropping supply. The only option in this situation is to keep the money level stable and let the ports open back up to the goods flowing.

 

[ChicagoFats]

But, but, but, didn't the bankers say they expect everything to return to normal by March?

Maybe the new normal.

Not any of the bankers i know!

 

[ChicagoFats]

No. Supply shocks can’t by definition be caused by too much money. Supply shocks are caused by the port closing during the lockdowns. Which in turn led to a knock on effect throwing the rest of the economy out of whack. Lockdowns led to manpower and container shortages which led to input shortages like micro ships, which in turn led to a shift into demand for other sources of supply, which leads to price increases.

Response to price increase and lockdowns here was more money. Stimulus checks, low interest, tax credits, and unemployment further exacerbated the situation by keeping demand high in the face of dropping supply. The only option in this situation is to keep the money level stable and let the ports open back up to the goods flowing.

What do you think allowed the port to close? People need money to live. They need to trade, they do not have supplies to sustain without trading. People need to work to make money, unless that is the government gives it to them for free.

The mass stimulus certainly gave people the ability to not go to work for a while, to take the risk to switch jobs or careers and thus miss matching supply and demand. All of these things are related and it goes back to government intervention.

The gov has good intentions, but they are just picking winners and losers when they should just let things play out (or they are doing the wrong things). I think we can all agree 8-10% inflation is not a good thing.

In another 20-30 years it won't matter because of the currency competition that will be provided by blockchain technology.

 

[BigBucnNole]

What do you think allowed the port to close? People need money to live. They need to trade, they do not have supplies to sustain without trading. People need to work to make money, unless that is the government gives it to them for free.

The mass stimulus certainly gave people the ability to not go to work for a while, to take the risk to switch jobs or careers and thus miss matching supply and demand. All of these things are related and it goes back to government intervention.

The gov has good intentions, but they are just picking winners and losers when they should just let things play out (or they are doing the wrong things). I think we can all agree 8-10% inflation is not a good thing.

In another 20-30 years it won't matter because of the currency competition that will be provided by blockchain technology.

I'm not sure what you are arguing here. Are you saying this would've happened regardless of shutting down the ports and creating shortages in input goods?