Nord Stream 2

[Jayhacker]

Joe says he will cut off the pipeline if Putin invades. Dumb question but what kind of influence does joe have on anything to do with the pipeline?

 

[TopHook]

None. He can't do shit.

 

[Rusty Student]

He can ask his son, Hunter. The kid has a lot of energy experience and is the smartest guy Joe knows.

 

[BigBucnNole]

Interesting. I mean we could let the navy fuck it up and neither the Russians nor Euros could do shit. Brits and French may even support us.

Then subsidize LNG deliveries.

 

[shiv]

Interesting. I mean we could let the navy fuck it up and neither the Russians nor Euros could do shit. Brits and French may even support us.

Then subsidize LNG deliveries.

Let’s fucking do it. I yolo’d some oil tanker stock in case something like this goes down and we end up shipping a ton to europe

 

[Rusty Student]

Let’s fucking do it. I yolo’d some oil tanker stock in case something like this goes down and we end up shipping a ton to europe

Great idea, what ticker?

 

[shiv]

Great idea, what ticker?

TNK

Working to come up with some yolos with the tfsf investment team

Master Thread - Stonks/Options/Investing - come build your tfsf yolo stock portfolio

How is everyone handling their investments right now? I rebalanced my 401k today from 90% stocks/10% bonds to more of a 60% stocks/40% bonds. I made a few real estate investment purchases in 2020, but that market looks like its heated up too much as well. I also own a few individual stocks...

www.thefreespeechforum.com

 

[BigBucnNole]

Let’s fucking do it. I yolo’d some oil tanker stock in case something like this goes down and we end up shipping a ton to europe

This is my theory, so TIFWIW...

I think there are three angles at play for the US. Russian one, the European one, and the Asian one. All three rest on Ukraine.

The Russian angle is that by monopolizing gas they can largely neutralize Europe from supporting the US, dismantle NATO and extend their borders up through Ukraine and make it more defensible, Russia may not even need to invade as long as the saber rattle loud enough to force some backroom hush hush deals with Germany. That’ll open up Nordstream 2, remove Europe from the equation, and force concessions from the US. The worst part from our standpoint would be a resurgent Russia on a world stage as a much larger competitor that we had spent the prior century dismantling.
The European angle is such that European foreign policy is largely controlled by the US today. European foreign policy is primarily concerned with Eastern Europe, and a NATO presence there plus a puppet state in Ukraine keeps the Europeans tied to the US. If NATO is pushed out of Eastern Europe, and Germany accepts Russian gas, the threat of Russian gas cutoff outweighs the red boogie man that NATO was designed to stop. Better stated, Germany would face a bigger strategic problem that wouldn’t require the US for a solution. With a Russian Ukraine and a removal of US influence from Eastern Europe the Germans and thereby Europeans are less likely to need the US.
The Asian angle is we’ve been trying to pivot to Asia for almost a decade. We’ve made the calculation that we need Europe economically and the five eyes plus France militarily for the region. We are willing to piss off the Russians, even threaten war, to keep European dependence and make it so they have no choice but to follow our lead. If Ukraine falls to Russia US leverage goes poof, and the Germans can choose to back us, or open the door to the Chinese. We aren’t confident “freedom and liberty” is enough of an argument to keep them actively involved in our side.

One last piece is the currency argument and US leveraging. If the faith in the dollar is predominantly based in US strength. Any fracture along the way, the decline of NATO or the loss of Taiwan, could seriously damage the dollar and make our lives more difficult.
I do not believe the military is the end all be all of the dollar, and we have turned Saudi Arabia and their oil into a puppet state effectively. Another huge plus is our massive advanced economy and stability surrounded by two oceans and no real threats will always make the US one of the powerful economic engines on the planet.
Our debt is equivalent to someone borrowing $60k on a $50k salary, and paying $93 a month. We could conceivably keep borrowing forever as long as interest stays low. Planet instability has made every additional dollar borrowed even cheaper.
If a military blow were to happen and the world order post WW2 is no longer sustainable, all a very real possibility, the world would become more unstable. International currency would still need a reserve, and the only two viable options would be the Euro or Dollar. Most likely case would be a greater mix of Euros in the reserve portfolios for most countries. Our $93 monthly payment could jump to a little over a $100.
And if it’s more expensive to borrow, it may force a higher degree of competitiveness for us here.

Just my three cents.

 

[hmt5000]

It'd be comical if Puddin hits the pipeline and causes a huge ecological disaster in the med. I'd probably laff harder than I have in years.

 

[Nape]

Let’s fucking do it. I yolo’d some oil tanker stock in case something like this goes down and we end up shipping a ton to europe

Transporting LNG vs oil is a completely different animal. It is highly capital intensive and the capital is still being deployed. We send quite a bit over there but it’s a proverbial drop in the bucket.

 

[Nape]

Transporting LNG vs oil is a completely different animal. It is highly capital intensive and the capital is still being deployed. We send quite a bit over there but it’s a proverbial drop in the bucket.

I am currently developing a renewable natural gas project in Greece where we have partnered with the largest landfill operator. They are currently flaring all of their landfill gas instead of upgrading it into pipeline quality gas. Their flow rate it 20kNm3/hr of biogas. That is an incredible amount of energy lost. We are going to monetize that flow for them and reduce carbon emissions in doing so.

 

[Oler Ted]

This is my theory, so TIFWIW...

I think there are three angles at play for the US. Russian one, the European one, and the Asian one. All three rest on Ukraine.

The Russian angle is that by monopolizing gas they can largely neutralize Europe from supporting the US, dismantle NATO and extend their borders up through Ukraine and make it more defensible, Russia may not even need to invade as long as the saber rattle loud enough to force some backroom hush hush deals with Germany. That’ll open up Nordstream 2, remove Europe from the equation, and force concessions from the US.

The European angle is such that European foreign policy is largely controlled by the US. European foreign policy is primarily concerned with Eastern Europe and a NATO present and puppet state in Ukraine keeps the Europeans tied to the US. If NATO is pushed back and Germany and Russia can deal on gas, the threat of Russian gas being cutoff outweighs the red boogie man that NATO was designed to stop. Better stated, Germany would face a higher risk of no more gas as compared to Russian tanks driving to Berlin. With a Russian Ukraine and a removal of US influence from Eastern Europe the Germans and thereby Europeans are less likely to need the US.

The Asian angle is we’ve been trying to pivot to Asia for almost a decade. We’ve made the calculation that Europe and the five eyes are a better ally for that region and we are willing to piss off the Russians to keep European dependence and make it so they have no choice but to follow our lead. If Ukraine falls to Russia, Europe comes to the table with Russia, then the odds of it being the US and the five eyes may not be enough to contain China going forward. China needs to be shut out of Europe and Ukraine gives us that leverage.

One last piece is the currency argument and US leveraging. If the faith in the dollar is predominantly based in US strength. Any fracture along the way, the decline of NATO or the loss of Taiwan, could seriously damage the dollar and make our lives incredibly difficult.

You’ve got some good takes when you aren’t intentionally baiting morons.

 

[shiv]

I am currently developing a renewable natural gas project in Greece where we have partnered with the largest landfill operator. They are currently flaring all of their landfill gas instead of upgrading it into pipeline quality gas. Their flow rate it 20kNm3/hr of biogas. That is an incredible amount of energy lost. We are going to monetize that flow for them and reduce carbon emissions in doing so.

what do you mean exactly when you say landfill gas?

 

[shiv]

This is my theory, so TIFWIW...

I think there are three angles at play for the US. Russian one, the European one, and the Asian one. All three rest on Ukraine.

The Russian angle is that by monopolizing gas they can largely neutralize Europe from supporting the US, dismantle NATO and extend their borders up through Ukraine and make it more defensible, Russia may not even need to invade as long as the saber rattle loud enough to force some backroom hush hush deals with Germany. That’ll open up Nordstream 2, remove Europe from the equation, and force concessions from the US. The worst part from our standpoint would be a resurgent Russia on a world stage as a much larger competitor that we had spent the prior century dismantling.
The European angle is such that European foreign policy is largely controlled by the US today. European foreign policy is primarily concerned with Eastern Europe, and a NATO presence there plus a puppet state in Ukraine keeps the Europeans tied to the US. If NATO is pushed out of Eastern Europe, and Germany accepts Russian gas, the threat of Russian gas cutoff outweighs the red boogie man that NATO was designed to stop. Better stated, Germany would face a bigger strategic problem that wouldn’t require the US for a solution. With a Russian Ukraine and a removal of US influence from Eastern Europe the Germans and thereby Europeans are less likely to need the US.
The Asian angle is we’ve been trying to pivot to Asia for almost a decade. We’ve made the calculation that we need Europe economically and the five eyes plus France militarily for the region. We are willing to piss off the Russians, even threaten war, to keep European dependence and make it so they have no choice but to follow our lead. If Ukraine falls to Russia US leverage goes poof, and the Germans can choose to back us, or open the door to the Chinese. We aren’t confident “freedom and liberty” is enough of an argument to keep them actively involved in our side.

One last piece is the currency argument and US leveraging. If the faith in the dollar is predominantly based in US strength. Any fracture along the way, the decline of NATO or the loss of Taiwan, could seriously damage the dollar and make our lives more difficult.
I do not believe the military is the end all be all of the dollar, and we have turned Saudi Arabia and their oil into a puppet state effectively. Another huge plus is our massive advanced economy and stability surrounded by two oceans and no real threats will always make the US one of the powerful economic engines on the planet.
Our debt is equivalent to someone borrowing $60k on a $50k salary, and paying $93 a month. We could conceivably keep borrowing forever as long as interest stays low. Planet instability has made every additional dollar borrowed even cheaper.
If a military blow were to happen and the world order post WW2 is no longer sustainable, all a very real possibility, the world would become more unstable. International currency would still need a reserve, and the only two viable options would be the Euro or Dollar. Most likely case would be a greater mix of Euros in the reserve portfolios for most countries. Our $93 monthly payment could jump to a little over a $100.
And if it’s more expensive to borrow, it may force a higher degree of competitiveness for us here.

Just my three cents.

So this is a bit different than what was presented in the lecture you posted a few weeks back on Ukraine right? I know that lecture was a couple years old, and more details are coming out about the current situation.

 

[imprimis]

OBiden has no clue what is happening in the Ukraine or anywhere else. If he does anything it will be a clusterfuck. Putin is laughing. Hell, OBiden is deliberately destroying our own energy production and refuses to reverse the decline since he started the decline.

 

[BigBucnNole]

So this is a bit different than what was presented in the lecture you posted a few weeks back on Ukraine right? I know that lecture was a couple years old, and more details are coming out about the current situation.

Yea it's different. Their position is framed in a vacuum of just Eastern Europe. We have antagonized russia and created a situation like this to unfold.

However, this is also where we are. I'm not sure original expansion of NATO was to keep Europe dependent as much as Russia contained. Million ways we could've better arrived where we are today.

I'd also even argue that our own idealism and inexperience in geopolitics circa 1945 created a world order that is unsustainable and can't last.

 

[Long Cat V2.0]

what do you mean exactly when you say landfill gas?

Methane from landfills. I think we are going to see a lot of fuel cells converting waste gas to power in the near future.

https://www.fuelcellenergy.com/benefits/how-a-fuel-cell-works/

 

[imprimis]

Methane from landfills. I think we are going to see a lot of fuel cells converting waste gas to power in the near future.

https://www.fuelcellenergy.com/benefits/how-a-fuel-cell-works/

All the landfills around here recapture methane and burn it to power their facilities.

 

[Nape]

Methane from landfills. I think we are going to see a lot of fuel cells converting waste gas to power in the near future.

https://www.fuelcellenergy.com/benefits/how-a-fuel-cell-works/

Most now are turning it into RNG.

We will upgrade the biogas into RNG and then use a steam methanol reformer and a catalyst (cobalt or nickel) to create green methanol. Our largest investor and off take partner will buy as much as we can produce.

 

[Nape]

All the landfills around here recapture methane and burn it to power their facilities.

Many are switching over from electricity generation to RNG given the value prop includes D3 EPA issued RINs and the CA Low Carbon Fuel Standard LCFS credits. Right now those two are worth about $35-40/mmbtu.

 

[AgEngDawg]

Interesting. I mean we could let the navy fuck it up and neither the Russians nor Euros could do shit. Brits and French may even support us.

Then subsidize LNG deliveries.

Yea, subsidizing LNG deliveries to the Europe would cause our energy prices to freaking skyrocket since we have went away from coal and become so dependent on natural gas.

No thank you.

 

[Long Cat V2.0]

All the landfills around here recapture methane and burn it to power their facilities.

Fuel cells don’t burn it so it’s cleaner. Also more reliable. Utilities hate it though. Duke energy torpedoed one I was working on the week Apple went public with the project and submitted permitting docs. Duke guy had been involved in the project for 6 months. Apple had signed leases for land and gas (Lots of legal world) and paid for the design of this facility. At the last minute duke generated a new set of requirements for grid stiffness this killed the project even though the quantity of gas was the limiting factor for power generation and the fuel cell was going to replace three old natural gas generators. They wanted Apple to build a new substation and Apple said no.

 

[shiv]

Methane from landfills. I think we are going to see a lot of fuel cells converting waste gas to power in the near future.

https://www.fuelcellenergy.com/benefits/how-a-fuel-cell-works/

This is seriously cool

 

[Rebarcock.]

This is my theory, so TIFWIW...

I think there are three angles at play for the US. Russian one, the European one, and the Asian one. All three rest on Ukraine.

The Russian angle is that by monopolizing gas they can largely neutralize Europe from supporting the US, dismantle NATO and extend their borders up through Ukraine and make it more defensible, Russia may not even need to invade as long as the saber rattle loud enough to force some backroom hush hush deals with Germany. That’ll open up Nordstream 2, remove Europe from the equation, and force concessions from the US. The worst part from our standpoint would be a resurgent Russia on a world stage as a much larger competitor that we had spent the prior century dismantling.
The European angle is such that European foreign policy is largely controlled by the US today. European foreign policy is primarily concerned with Eastern Europe, and a NATO presence there plus a puppet state in Ukraine keeps the Europeans tied to the US. If NATO is pushed out of Eastern Europe, and Germany accepts Russian gas, the threat of Russian gas cutoff outweighs the red boogie man that NATO was designed to stop. Better stated, Germany would face a bigger strategic problem that wouldn’t require the US for a solution. With a Russian Ukraine and a removal of US influence from Eastern Europe the Germans and thereby Europeans are less likely to need the US.
The Asian angle is we’ve been trying to pivot to Asia for almost a decade. We’ve made the calculation that we need Europe economically and the five eyes plus France militarily for the region. We are willing to piss off the Russians, even threaten war, to keep European dependence and make it so they have no choice but to follow our lead. If Ukraine falls to Russia US leverage goes poof, and the Germans can choose to back us, or open the door to the Chinese. We aren’t confident “freedom and liberty” is enough of an argument to keep them actively involved in our side.

One last piece is the currency argument and US leveraging. If the faith in the dollar is predominantly based in US strength. Any fracture along the way, the decline of NATO or the loss of Taiwan, could seriously damage the dollar and make our lives more difficult.
I do not believe the military is the end all be all of the dollar, and we have turned Saudi Arabia and their oil into a puppet state effectively. Another huge plus is our massive advanced economy and stability surrounded by two oceans and no real threats will always make the US one of the powerful economic engines on the planet.
Our debt is equivalent to someone borrowing $60k on a $50k salary, and paying $93 a month. We could conceivably keep borrowing forever as long as interest stays low. Planet instability has made every additional dollar borrowed even cheaper.
If a military blow were to happen and the world order post WW2 is no longer sustainable, all a very real possibility, the world would become more unstable. International currency would still need a reserve, and the only two viable options would be the Euro or Dollar. Most likely case would be a greater mix of Euros in the reserve portfolios for most countries. Our $93 monthly payment could jump to a little over a $100.
And if it’s more expensive to borrow, it may force a higher degree of competitiveness for us here.

Just my three cents.

One of your better posts.
Should USA get a pub back in office and open up the fracking valve again, it could change the dynamics. High energy costs per barrel helps the others. If we can cut that ability to earn it would help us out geopoliticallly speaking.
I suspect that all Russia is doing is saber rattling. If our politicians are truly bought of by Ukraine energy that may be why our politicians are trying to start a conflict.
Note that people in Ukraine at the border are not nervous about an invasion. More anger than fear

In City Near Border, Ukrainians Protest Russian Threat

The Kremlin has now massed more than 100,000 troops across the frontier, sparking fears from the West that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning a major incursion

www.voanews.com

 

[Long Cat V2.0]

This is seriously cool

Let me tell you - FCE has some seriously smart engineers. I’m sure you’ve worked with some people who seem kinda dumb and some that seem sharp. They have maybe the most impressive group of engineers I have worked with. It seems to me that fuel cells will be widely used in the future. There is also a lot of heat generated so CHP is in play for the right application which pushes payback time way down.

 

[shiv]

Let me tell you - FCE has some seriously smart engineers. I’m sure you’ve worked with some people who seem kinda dumb and some that seem sharp. They have maybe the most impressive group of engineers I have worked with. It seems to me that fuel cells will be widely used in the future. There is also a lot of heat generated so CHP is in play for the right application which pushes payback time way down.

I’m gonna have to look in to this more. Seems like a game changer

 

[BigBucnNole]

Yea, subsidizing LNG deliveries to the Europe would cause our energy prices to freaking skyrocket since we have went away from coal and become so dependent on natural gas.

No thank you.

It's completely unrealistic. No way ships could replace a pipeline. So we're at a bit of an impasse.

It's hard to say who put this fuckin shit sandwich in place. Energy is the manifestation of geography and demographics which all are geopolitics. It's never been a secret that Russia has resources Europe needs and we've been playing a balancing act since 1945. The nice thing about the USSR is that they could invade and run over Europe and were willing to if push came to shove so it created a natural gravity for the Western Europeans to fall into our arms.
Since the fall of the USSR the main weapon the Russians have had has been energy and it's hard to dissuade the euros from it without a threat of war. It's not a coincidence that a gas pipeline, two main ones really goes through Syria. One from Qatar and the other from Iran. Conveniently you get a revolution in Syria that could push a pipeline into Europe from a US protectorate. And equally conveniently the Russians back Assad.
Then there is the Nordstream show. Schroeder set it up, I think it was roughly in the 2005 to 07 range that the wheels started turning which led to a US response of threatening the southern Russian flank with NATO expansion into Georgia. If NATO setup shop in Georgia, they are in the Caucasus. That, if you paid attention to WW2 was what the battle of Stalingrad was about. It was a strategic objective the Germans used to cut off the Black Sea. That's a massive trade link and a warm water port dating back to I think Peter the Great ( I believe), Russia dies without it. So the Russians invade and knock Georgia out of the equation.
Then Nordstream 2 begins gaining steam circa 2012 to 13 and voila a 2014 Green Revolution in Ukraine that removed the Russian puppet and replaced him with ours. Again, threatening the Russian core with NATO expansion. And here we are with a threatening Russian invasion.

Ultimately we have no economic solution to the resource/ energy problem in Europe. Shit European policies with green energy and natural gas, which very well could've been the product of Russian lobbying in Berlin, is breaking NATO. And obviously their only shit policies from our POV, for the Russians it's the best idea in a long time, if not ever from the Germans.

 

[TFSF]

 

[TFSF]