Lumber futures for july drop

[Rebarcock.]

23%down but that is from a 4x peak high

 

[MVTPatriot]

Is that due to demand, supply catching up or a combo of both?

 

[Jtrain80]

That damn tile and setting materials never changed.

I am no longer in the industry, but did a quick price check. Same prices as the early 2000's.

 

[Edgehollow]

23%down but that is from a 4x peak high

Couple more of those, it might be affordable to build again.

 

[ChicagoFats]

This is interesting. First time i have heard of demand softening.

Another interesting thing i learned last weekend is that while lumber prices have increased signifigantly, they still dont make up a large portion of the cost of a house. The increase for the cost of a $1mm home is about $30-40k or 3-4%. Not as much as i would have assumed. Correct me if im wrong, just going off what someone told me

 

[BigBucnNole]

I said this would happen.

 

[PawPower1981]

Basil?

 

[Hoppo]

This is interesting. First time i have heard of demand softening.

Another interesting thing i learned last weekend is that while lumber prices have increased signifigantly, they still dont make up a large portion of the cost of a house. The increase for the cost of a $1mm home is about $30-40k or 3-4%. Not as much as i would have assumed. Correct me if im wrong, just going off what someone told me

Supply is probably the greater factor. It was in the run-up.

 

[hmt5000]

This is interesting. First time i have heard of demand softening.

Another interesting thing i learned last weekend is that while lumber prices have increased signifigantly, they still dont make up a large portion of the cost of a house. The increase for the cost of a $1mm home is about $30-40k or 3-4%. Not as much as i would have assumed. Correct me if im wrong, just going off what someone told me

Framing package maybe. But you use lumber in a lot more than just framing. Also electric wiring is up about 40%. builders here are getting pinched and can't hire help. I wouldn't bet that lack of labor is the cause of the slow down in building. High end houses can still earn a profit but the places further south of me are probably just wayyyy past being able to build in this market.

 

[America 1st]

23%down but that is from a 4x peak high

Excellent.

Getting a quote for a deck next week so this is perfect timing.

 

[Cre8ive]

This is interesting. First time i have heard of demand softening.

Another interesting thing i learned last weekend is that while lumber prices have increased signifigantly, they still dont make up a large portion of the cost of a house. The increase for the cost of a $1mm home is about $30-40k or 3-4%. Not as much as i would have assumed. Correct me if im wrong, just going off what someone told me

you are correct, my brother is a big time home builder and he agreed with what you said.

 

[Seagulls]

I said this would happen.

Yeah man, my education is what you do but I’ve faded on it going into a different field. I’ve started to learn a few months ago you know what you’re talking about and I value your thoughts on this stuff. Since you said that it’s been my take as well as it made sense.

(getting off my knees now)

 

[tgsio]

We were getting ready to gut our kitchen. That's on hold due to labor and lumber prices. We decided to go ahead and tear up our patio and get the 3rd stage of our yard reno done instead. Of course, we decided to do this 3 weeks ago and it has to be finished by next Friday (I'm going to have about 350+ people here for a massive joint grad party). Might have been cheaper to just do the kitchen.

Seriously, when I started looking at cost, it just made sense to wait until things settle down a bit.

 

[ChicagoFats]

We were getting ready to gut our kitchen. That's on hold due to labor and lumber prices. We decided to go ahead and tear up our patio and get the 3rd stage of our yard reno done instead. Of course, we decided to do this 3 weeks ago and it has to be finished by next Friday (I'm going to have about 350+ people here for a massive joint grad party). Might have been cheaper to just do the kitchen.

Seriously, when I started looking at cost, it just made sense to wait until things settle down a bit.

If you can hold out 6-12 months, supply chains will get straightened out and that should help prices come back into line. Hopefully!

 

[tgsio]

If you can hold out 6-12 months, supply chains will get straightened out and that should help prices come back into line. Hopefully!

We're planning to finish the final stage of the yard next spring (going to build a deck down the side of the house (which is actually the back) to the patio, extend the patio to the room under the garage and renovate the room into a covered/semi enclosed bar/lounge/party area. (for the existing patio, we're reusing the 98 year old slate. I want to keep it as it's original to the house))

Kitchen will be the next year.

I have a plan.

 

[C13Moridin]

About to break ground on a 2.4 mil home. Hope its down several multiples of this by the time we start purchasing for the framing. The anticipated cost of framing at this time is unbelievable

 

[hmt5000]

About to break ground on a 2.4 mil home. Hope its down several multiples of this by the time we start purchasing for the framing. The anticipated cost of framing at this time is unbelievable

One thing about lumber being so high is that my dad looked how much he spent on the framing package and thinks he could of done a concrete exterior home for about the same price. they make an insulated concrete that is normally kinda outrageously priced but you may look into that. That house would be there for your great great grandkids.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Excellent.

Getting a quote for a deck next week so this is perfect timing.

Likely may want to put off to july quote or youll pay high and they will buy low

 

[Rebarcock.]

One thing about lumber being so high is that my dad looked how much he spent on the framing package and thinks he could of done a concrete exterior home for about the same price. they make an insulated concrete that is normally kinda outrageously priced but you may look into that. That house would be there for your great great grandkids.

That is icf construction. Better for hurricane and other hazards. Better insulation qualities and everyone fucking loves rebar.
But rebar is up 40%-50% since nov and is going higher in futures to foreign markets wanting US scrap as it has the best molecular composition.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

Is that due to demand, supply catching up or a combo of both?

there has been no shortage of lumber. The big mills have more lumber stacked than I've ever seen now. Just yard after yard full to the brim.

I suppose it has been/is getting deliveries made combined with a purposeful hold back of supply.

 

[dirtytoeddawg]

you are correct, my brother is a big time home builder and he agreed with what you said.

In our area new construction is right at 20% higher now than in 2019. A lot of factors other than lumber involved but that's the round number we're seeing. Existing homes much higher than that percentage wise as people have slowed on building/buying new hoping for some relief.

 

[America 1st]

Likely may want to put off to july quote or youll pay high and they will buy low

If I didn't have family friends doing all the different projects on my house I'd be terrified to get taken advantage of in this climate.

 

[AgEngDawg]

That is icf construction. Better for hurricane and other hazards. Better insulation qualities and everyone fucking loves rebar.
But rebar is up 40%-50% since nov and is going higher in futures to foreign markets wanting US scrap as it has the best molecular composition.

Username checks out.

 

[Rebarcock.]

Username checks out.

You are Got Damn right

 

[Rebarcock.]

there has been no shortage of lumber. The big mills have more lumber stacked than I've ever seen now. Just yard after yard full to the brim.

I suppose it has been/is getting deliveries made combined with a purposeful hold back of supply.

Many grades. Folks in chucktown are having problems w lvl longspands which need steel plates.
I m having trouble getting truckloads of steel. Shit is real but i think youll see employment improve as guvs decline federal unemployment dollars. Everyone i knownin restaurants is banging