Welcome!

By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

SignUp Now!

How big of a correction does the stock market need?

How far will the market tumble when the gubment stops printing money.

  • Nothing but STONKS!

    Votes: 2 5.7%
  • 10%

    Votes: 3 8.6%
  • 20%

    Votes: 15 42.9%
  • 30%

    Votes: 4 11.4%
  • Greater than 30%

    Votes: 9 25.7%
  • Investing in other people is for suckers.

    Votes: 2 5.7%

  • Total voters
    35

shiv

John
Administrator
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2020
Messages
13,741
No. The super cycle we have been on for years is reaching its end. Elliott Wave Theory shows this leg to be the last wave of a 5 wave move from the Great Depression. That is why this top will be generational.
Thanks for expounding, wasn’t completely sure on your context.

You have any articles or reference material? I remember my granddad trying to explain Elliot Wave Theory to me in my younger days.
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
Thanks for expounding, wasn’t completely sure on your context.

You have any articles or reference material? I remember my granddad trying to explain Elliot Wave Theory to me in my younger days.
I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.
 

America 1st

The best poster on the board! Trumps lover! 🇺🇸
Founder
Joined
Jan 7, 2021
Messages
16,097
I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.
So you're saying I'm going to have some prime buying opportunities over the next four years?
 

Jtrain80

Legendary
Joined
Jan 7, 2021
Messages
3,493
I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.

There used to be a poster on soundoff that was an expert on this stuff. Played mike lb for Texas when they won the natty in 1969, then went to a career on wall street. He had a heart transplant and one of the mods doxxed him, out of genuine concern.
 

shiv

John
Administrator
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2020
Messages
13,741
I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.
No need to spend too much time on it - I can dig up some stuff. Just wondering if you had anything readily available.

It is interesting how so many things (even outside of nature) have behavior like a compression wave. Everything is cyclical
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
So you're saying I'm going to have some prime buying opportunities over the next four years?
This current wave can last longer than a few months but that’s how long we expect it to last based on the wave count going back to 11/3/2020. Once it turns, though, it would start a 3 or 5 wave super cycle lower, possibly taking S&P down 60-70%.
 

LVRebel

GIF specialist
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
2,968
This current wave can last longer than a few months but that’s how long we expect it to last based on the wave count going back to 11/3/2020. Once it turns, though, it would start a 3 or 5 wave super cycle lower, possibly taking S&P down 60-70%.
How do you think all of this printing of money and debt affects it? There's been so much additional money thrown into the market that devalues the dollar, that it seems like it would result in stock prices continuing to rise as people/businesses/government spend that money.
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
How do you think all of this printing of money and debt affects it? There's been so much additional money thrown into the market that devalues the dollar, that it seems like it would result in stock prices continuing to rise as people/businesses/government spend that money.
That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.
 

LVRebel

GIF specialist
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
2,968
That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.
so where are you putting your money right now, specifically? I'm hesitant to engage too much in the market right now, as it's only a matter of time until it crashes.
 

Renegadenole

Poster
Founder
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Messages
230
That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.
Do you think there will be a day, soon, where big money flows into Bitcoin?
If you read about BTC and block chain it seems like a good solution for big money, very liquid and transportable. Also hard for government('s) fiscal policies to make big changes to value.
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
so where are you putting your money right now, specifically? I'm hesitant to engage too much in the market right now, as it's only a matter of time until it crashes.
Our fund was short Nasdaq and long the Russell until Monday. We are now only long the Russell and getting out closer to 2350-2400.

Personally, I have my fam’s $ in the fund, real estate, Bitcoin, and commodity funds, mainly agricultural and energy.
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
Do you think there will be a day, soon, where big money flows into Bitcoin?
If you read about BTC and block chain it seems like a good solution for big money, very liquid and transportable. Also hard for government('s) fiscal policies to make big changes to value.
It’s already begun. And there is a lot more to come for sure.
 

LVRebel

GIF specialist
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
2,968
Our fund was short Nasdaq and long the Russell until Monday. We are now only long the Russell and getting out closer to 2350-2400.

Personally, I have my fam’s $ in the fund, real estate, Bitcoin, and commodity funds, mainly agricultural and energy.
I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.
 

Alpha_Cock

A Real A Hole
Founder
Joined
Jan 11, 2021
Messages
298
There has to be some sort of catalyst to get this correction going. Unfortunately, it will have to be some sort of crisis... but not a fake one like we have been experiencing for the past year.
 

Renegadenole

Poster
Founder
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Messages
230
I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.
I make my living in real estate. Commercial, multi family a couple singles. We sold a commercial property a couple months ago The longterm tenant saw an opportunity and offered to buy and we said yes. We didn't even bother with a 1031 the market is way to hot. Plus we had some tax credits from last year so we decided to just take the hit and put some cash in the bank. We bought a couple BTC. If I could get comfortable I would stick it all in BTC cold storage and see what happens.
 

shiv

John
Administrator
Founder
Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2020
Messages
13,741
There has to be some sort of catalyst to get this correction going. Unfortunately, it will have to be some sort of crisis... but not a fake one like we have been experiencing for the past year.
If bond yields keep rising it’s not going to take a crisis for the dam to break.

The good thing is the US is in much better position than anyone else.
 

Nape

Elite
Founder
Joined
Dec 9, 2020
Messages
1,084
I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.
Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.
 

Alpha_Cock

A Real A Hole
Founder
Joined
Jan 11, 2021
Messages
298
If bond yields keep rising it’s not going to take a crisis for the dam to break.

The good thing is the US is in much better position than anyone else.
Bring it on. That is what I've been waiting on for the past 6 months. I've missed out on a good bit of run up because I started sheltering back in October.
 

Renegadenole

Poster
Founder
Joined
Jan 13, 2021
Messages
230
Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.
I own 40 acres of farm land. Bought it from my FIL about 25 years ago. Built a house on 5 acres. The rest we keep in hay and rent it out. Crazy how farm land in West Central Ohio keeps its value. Around 10,000/acre. The business math makes zero sense. On the rare occasion some land hits the market it's gone in days or just hold an auction and let farmers drive up the price. All family money with nothing else to do with it. Some very rich farmers on paper. Not much cashflow though.
 
Joined
Jan 8, 2021
Messages
1,612
Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.

have any I can deer hunt
 

Scratchmyvolsroughly

Elite
Founder
Joined
Jan 8, 2021
Messages
821
I make my living in real estate. Commercial, multi family a couple singles. We sold a commercial property a couple months ago The longterm tenant saw an opportunity and offered to buy and we said yes. We didn't even bother with a 1031 the market is way to hot. Plus we had some tax credits from last year so we decided to just take the hit and put some cash in the bank. We bought a couple BTC. If I could get comfortable I would stick it all in BTC cold storage and see what happens.


BTC will be well over $100K + by end year, good shot at $250-300k
 
Top Bottom