How big of a correction does the stock market need?

[Renegadenole]

Seems inevitable that the market will have a major correction sometime this year.

 

[America 1st]

Loving every minute of it. The correct answer is never enough.

 

[GarnetPild]

No idea, but I guessed >30%. Why? No idea, other than the market has continued to soar, as most everyday Americans have stuggled in a big way. I'm probably wrong and it will continue to climb.

 

[Nape]

The top we will make in the next few months will be generational.

 

[shiv]

The top we will make in the next few months will be generational.

Do we hold it once we make it?

 

[Nape]

Do we hold it once we make it?

No. The super cycle we have been on for years is reaching its end. Elliott Wave Theory shows this leg to be the last wave of a 5 wave move from the Great Depression. That is why this top will be generational.

 

[shiv]

No. The super cycle we have been on for years is reaching its end. Elliott Wave Theory shows this leg to be the last wave of a 5 wave move from the Great Depression. That is why this top will be generational.

Thanks for expounding, wasn’t completely sure on your context.

You have any articles or reference material? I remember my granddad trying to explain Elliot Wave Theory to me in my younger days.

 

[Nape]

Thanks for expounding, wasn’t completely sure on your context.

You have any articles or reference material? I remember my granddad trying to explain Elliot Wave Theory to me in my younger days.

I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.

 

[America 1st]

I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.

So you're saying I'm going to have some prime buying opportunities over the next four years?

 

[Jtrain80]

I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.

There used to be a poster on soundoff that was an expert on this stuff. Played mike lb for Texas when they won the natty in 1969, then went to a career on wall street. He had a heart transplant and one of the mods doxxed him, out of genuine concern.

 

[shiv]

I’ll see what I can dig up. My partner is the EWT expert. We’ve been trading since 2015 using EWT with Fibonacci retracements/extensions and using momentum indicators as triggers.

@Got carl? has been following along for a year or two. It’s crazy how the rhythm of the market follows these principles.

No need to spend too much time on it - I can dig up some stuff. Just wondering if you had anything readily available.

It is interesting how so many things (even outside of nature) have behavior like a compression wave. Everything is cyclical

 

[Nape]

So you're saying I'm going to have some prime buying opportunities over the next four years?

This current wave can last longer than a few months but that’s how long we expect it to last based on the wave count going back to 11/3/2020. Once it turns, though, it would start a 3 or 5 wave super cycle lower, possibly taking S&P down 60-70%.

 

[LVRebel]

This current wave can last longer than a few months but that’s how long we expect it to last based on the wave count going back to 11/3/2020. Once it turns, though, it would start a 3 or 5 wave super cycle lower, possibly taking S&P down 60-70%.

How do you think all of this printing of money and debt affects it? There's been so much additional money thrown into the market that devalues the dollar, that it seems like it would result in stock prices continuing to rise as people/businesses/government spend that money.

 

[Nape]

How do you think all of this printing of money and debt affects it? There's been so much additional money thrown into the market that devalues the dollar, that it seems like it would result in stock prices continuing to rise as people/businesses/government spend that money.

That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.

 

[LVRebel]

That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.

so where are you putting your money right now, specifically? I'm hesitant to engage too much in the market right now, as it's only a matter of time until it crashes.

 

[Renegadenole]

That’s the beauty of trading on technical analysis. All of that stuff is irrelevant. Only the natural rhythm of the market matters to us.

But on your point, it is a house of cards and we got a peek last week of what the indexes will do when the bond market gets weak and hits higher and higher rates. Right now the only place for big money to go is commodities and stocks. Commodities that are dollar denominated will continue to outpace them in Euro or Yen terms.

Do you think there will be a day, soon, where big money flows into Bitcoin?
If you read about BTC and block chain it seems like a good solution for big money, very liquid and transportable. Also hard for government('s) fiscal policies to make big changes to value.

 

[Nape]

so where are you putting your money right now, specifically? I'm hesitant to engage too much in the market right now, as it's only a matter of time until it crashes.

Our fund was short Nasdaq and long the Russell until Monday. We are now only long the Russell and getting out closer to 2350-2400.

Personally, I have my fam’s $ in the fund, real estate, Bitcoin, and commodity funds, mainly agricultural and energy.

 

[Nape]

Do you think there will be a day, soon, where big money flows into Bitcoin?
If you read about BTC and block chain it seems like a good solution for big money, very liquid and transportable. Also hard for government('s) fiscal policies to make big changes to value.

It’s already begun. And there is a lot more to come for sure.

 

[LVRebel]

Our fund was short Nasdaq and long the Russell until Monday. We are now only long the Russell and getting out closer to 2350-2400.

Personally, I have my fam’s $ in the fund, real estate, Bitcoin, and commodity funds, mainly agricultural and energy.

I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Alpha_Cock]

There has to be some sort of catalyst to get this correction going. Unfortunately, it will have to be some sort of crisis... but not a fake one like we have been experiencing for the past year.

 

[Renegadenole]

I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.

I make my living in real estate. Commercial, multi family a couple singles. We sold a commercial property a couple months ago The longterm tenant saw an opportunity and offered to buy and we said yes. We didn't even bother with a 1031 the market is way to hot. Plus we had some tax credits from last year so we decided to just take the hit and put some cash in the bank. We bought a couple BTC. If I could get comfortable I would stick it all in BTC cold storage and see what happens.

 

[Yep00]

In for later. There are some things to digest that can’t be overlooked.

 

[shiv]

There has to be some sort of catalyst to get this correction going. Unfortunately, it will have to be some sort of crisis... but not a fake one like we have been experiencing for the past year.

If bond yields keep rising it’s not going to take a crisis for the dam to break.

The good thing is the US is in much better position than anyone else.

 

[Nape]

I'd like to get more in real estate, but the prices are so inflated right now too, I'm hesitant on that as well. When you talk about commodity funds, can you give an example of some options of what that includes? I'm not familiar with them.

Edit: Are you just going in BTC, or in various cryptos? I've been getting into this in the past month or so, but way behind.

Thanks in advance.

Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.

 

[Alpha_Cock]

If bond yields keep rising it’s not going to take a crisis for the dam to break.

The good thing is the US is in much better position than anyone else.

Bring it on. That is what I've been waiting on for the past 6 months. I've missed out on a good bit of run up because I started sheltering back in October.

 

[Renegadenole]

Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.

I own 40 acres of farm land. Bought it from my FIL about 25 years ago. Built a house on 5 acres. The rest we keep in hay and rent it out. Crazy how farm land in West Central Ohio keeps its value. Around 10,000/acre. The business math makes zero sense. On the rare occasion some land hits the market it's gone in days or just hold an auction and let farmers drive up the price. All family money with nothing else to do with it. Some very rich farmers on paper. Not much cashflow though.

 

[SmokeHouse423]

Houses in the western burbs of Chicago are on the market less than 2 weeks. A house two down from me went on the market last Monday and was under contract on Tuesday. I wish I would have seen this coming. We’ve always bought/sold property in the city, Cicero, Berwyn, and other small burbs along commuter lines. Been doing that for 20+ years. They stay in high demand until now. No one is riding Metra into the Loop any more.

Most of the RE I own is farmland in the fringe counties.

have any I can deer hunt

 

[Scratchmyvolsroughly]

It’s already begun. And there is a lot more to come for sure.

IMO crypto is the safest place to be when the market crashes. For sure more risk, but YUUUGE upside. I am in large

 

[Scratchmyvolsroughly]

I make my living in real estate. Commercial, multi family a couple singles. We sold a commercial property a couple months ago The longterm tenant saw an opportunity and offered to buy and we said yes. We didn't even bother with a 1031 the market is way to hot. Plus we had some tax credits from last year so we decided to just take the hit and put some cash in the bank. We bought a couple BTC. If I could get comfortable I would stick it all in BTC cold storage and see what happens.

BTC will be well over $100K + by end year, good shot at $250-300k