1/27/26 – Notes From a Competent Lawyer:
There is a significant change of a low-grade insurgency erupting in the United States along the lines of the one the leftists initiated in the late 60s/early 70s. An actual civil war-type conflict is unlikely unless Democrats have executive control of the federal government, since otherwise they have no real access to logistically supported combat formations (If you think the guys of the Minnesota Guard are going to fight active forces, you’re nuts – they do not have the logistical infrastructure to and their troops would essentially be fighting their own. Go read my Second Civil War book:
https://a.co/d/hUEfLz5 ).
No, the next phase is likely to include bombings, shootings, and maybe kidnappings, with a huge information operation component (they would put their actions on Tik Tok). Remember, an insurgency in the early stages is an information operation designed to delegitimize authority and demoralize it. They can't force anyone to do anything; they have to convince the authorities to comply.
So, why escalate to violence? Because the most dedicated communist agitators have no choice. Walz desperately wants a standdown because Trump has not folded. The deportations continue, and the campaign is not getting the response the left hoped for. Sure, the usual eunuchs (Tillis cannot depart the Senate soon enough) are whining, but Trump is holding firm and forcing the state actors to refuse his reasonable requests, like turning over criminals. The Walz types won’t escalate, but the radicals very well could.
Remember, you earn cred as a leftist by going left. You lose it by moderating or compromising. The leftists have talked themselves into a box canyon: Trump is literally Hitler, so how can they stop resisting? No, there will be leftists who want to move on to direct violent action and plenty of social media supporters to cheer it on. Think of it as an opportunity; the one who goes violent first becomes their hero. They will try to do it for max marquee effect and the lowest possible risk - both in terms of the authorities fighting back and judicial accountability (more on that another time).
We’ve seen two sniper incidents already involving ICE (others involved Trump and Charlie Kirk). We are likely to see more. The tools are readily available, it takes not a huge amount of training, and there is a physical distance involved, which makes it a safer tactic. Bombs (IEDs) require tech savvy and materials, but they also have the advantage of distance. Remember, in a stand-up fight against the feds the insurgents will lose. Endless feds with endless ammo will converge; that’s why stand-off tactics are key.
I assume the FBI is already mapping these networks. We know their Signal chats are compromised. The US spent 20 years overseas learning how to identify and dismantle terrorist networks. Trump’s folks will do that here. They key is to treat them like terrorists, not crooks. The Weather Underground/SLA era insurgency was usually treated as a criminal threat rather than a terrorist threat (in part because the children of much of the establishment sympathized with it, but there were times it was fought like a counterinsurgency – e.g., the SLA shootout in LA.). Pretending it was a routine criminal justice issue proved to be a mistake, in that terrorists like Bill Ayers eventually gained positions in leading institutions instead of rotting in Supermax. I do not see the Trump administration making that mistake again.
More on the coming low-grade insurgency next time!