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47% of new cases

scanodd

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More Vaccinated People Are Dying of COVID in England Than Unvaccinated – Here’s Why​

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.


The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old. This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalized with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalization (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.
However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old. Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from COVID than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain​

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with COVID. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get COVID will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before COVID vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of COVID. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people. Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from COVID to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Written by Christian Yates, Senior Lecturer in Mathematical Biology, University of Bath.

Originally published on The Conversation.
 

Viking

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More Vaccinated People Are Dying of COVID in England Than Unvaccinated – Here’s Why​

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.


The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old. This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalized with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalization (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.
However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old. Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from COVID than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain​

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with COVID. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get COVID will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before COVID vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of COVID. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people. Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from COVID to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Written by Christian Yates, Senior Lecturer in Mathematical Biology, University of Bath.

Originally published on The Conversation.
This dumb ass actually defends the jab in this article. How this mouth breathing moron can defend the vaccine and at the same time admit it is not a vaccine by admitting the vaxxed are dying at a higher rate than non-vaxxed. What a weird and confusing article.
 

AmericanViking

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More Vaccinated People Are Dying of COVID in England Than Unvaccinated – Here’s Why​

More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine. At first glance, this may seem alarming, but it is exactly as would be expected.

Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death.


The risk of dying from COVID doubles roughly every seven years older a patient is. The 35-year difference between a 35-year-old and a 70-year-old means the risk of death between the two patients has doubled five times – equivalently it has increased by a factor of 32. An unvaccinated 70-year-old might be 32 times more likely to die of COVID than an unvaccinated 35-year-old. This dramatic variation of the risk profile with age means that even excellent vaccines don’t reduce the risk of death for older people to below the risk for some younger demographics.

PHE data suggests that being double vaccinated reduces the risk of being hospitalized with the now-dominant delta variant by around 96%. Even conservatively assuming the vaccines are no more effective at preventing death than hospitalization (actually they are likely to be more effective at preventing death) this means the risk of death for double vaccinated people has been cut to less than one-twentieth of the value for unvaccinated people with the same underlying risk profile.
However, the 20-fold decrease in risk afforded by the vaccine isn’t enough to offset the 32-fold increase in underlying risk of death of an 70-year-old over a 35-year-old. Given the same risk of infection, we would still expect to see more double-vaccinated 70-year-olds die from COVID than unvaccinated 35-year-olds. There are caveats to that simple calculation. The risk of infection is not the same for all age groups. Currently, infections are highest in the youngest and lower in older age groups.

Think of it as ball-bearing rain​

One way to imagine the risk is as a rain of differently sized ball bearings falling from the sky, where the ball bearings are the people that get infected with COVID. For simplicity’s sake, let’s assume there are roughly equal numbers of ball bearings in each age group. In each age category, there is also a variation in the size of the balls. The balls representing the older groups are smaller, representing a higher risk of death.

Now imagine there’s a sieve that catches many of the balls. Most people who get COVID will not die (most balls get caught in the sieve). But some of the smaller balls fall through. The older you are, the more likely you are to fall through the holes. The balls that make it through the first sieve are hugely skewed towards older age ranges, represented by the smaller ball bearings. Before COVID vaccines came along, the people that fell through the holes represented the people who would die of COVID. The risk was massively skewed towards older people.

Vaccination provides a second sieve underneath the first, to prevent people from dying. This time, because we haven’t vaccinated everyone, it’s the holes in the sieve that are of different sizes. For older people who’ve had both doses, the holes are smaller, so many ball-bearings are stopped. The vaccines will save many of those who would previously have died.

For younger people the holes in the vaccine sieve are currently bigger as they are less likely to have received both doses and so more likely to fall through the sieve.

If all the filtering were just done by the second sieve (with no skew in risk of death by age, represented by the first sieve), then we might expect younger unvaccinated people to account for a larger proportion of the deaths. But it isn’t. The first sieve is so hugely biased towards older people that even with vaccination, more of them slip through the second sieve than the younger unvaccinated people. Given the UK’s vaccination strategy (vaccinate older, more vulnerable people first), you would expect high proportions of the people who die from COVID to have been vaccinated. And that is exactly what we see in the data.

The fact that more vaccinated people are dying than unvaccinated people does nothing to undermine vaccine safety or effectiveness. In fact, it’s exactly what we’d expect from the excellent vaccines, which have already saved tens of thousands of lives.

Written by Christian Yates, Senior Lecturer in Mathematical Biology, University of Bath.

Originally published on The Conversation.

The “excellent vaccine”

Dude can shove his propaganda up his arse
 

AmericanViking

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Those in my family who got the Jab have told me to stop sending them information exposing the charade and consequences of taking the vaccines.

I don’t send them anything. I figure it’s already too late. Why make them worry over the bad decision.

My brothers best friend had a heart attack within a week of his jab. Related? No clue, but he started hurting within 48 hours and decided to go in two days later. He’s out now and doing ok
 

Jtrain80

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Those in my family who got the Jab have told me to stop sending them information exposing the charade and consequences of taking the vaccines.

I am very careful to find out if someone has gotten vaxxed before I start talking.

Hey, if they already have it, they will find out soon enough.

What I really want to find out is if they are still fertile. Just out of curiosity.
 

imprimis

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I am very careful to find out if someone has gotten vaxxed before I start talking.

Hey, if they already have it, they will find out soon enough.

What I really want to find out is if they are still fertile. Just out of curiosity.
I knew they were getting Jabbed, warned them repeatedly about the issues, hyperbole, and irrational nitwittery from Fauci and Scarf Lady and they still got Jabbed. A lot of the reasoning was to be able to see family members. Much of the embargo was due to a certain MD scaring a certain family member who in turn withheld visitation.
 

GarnetPild

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This dumb ass actually defends the jab in this article. How this mouth breathing moron can defend the vaccine and at the same time admit it is not a vaccine by admitting the vaxxed are dying at a higher rate than non-vaxxed. What a weird and confusing article.

I love how he tries to exaplain how more vaccinated people are dying from covid than unvaccinated-

"Here’s a simple thought experiment: imagine everyone is now fully vaccinated with COVID vaccines – which are excellent but can’t save all lives. Some people who get infected with COVID will still die. All of these people will be fully vaccinated – 100%. That doesn’t mean vaccines aren’t effective at reducing death."

Yeah, but everyone isn't vaccinated, and some are still dying. We have 2 groups to compare, and the vaccinated seem to be dying from covid more than the non-vaccinated.
 

ChicagoFats

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The vaccine is supposed to prevent severe infection. It doesn't make you repel the virus like some kind of magnetic field. You can still get an infection, likely without symptoms. All of this is true for natural immunity too.

How about compared to other diseases, such as Chicken Pox, or measles etc.

Can you still get the measles after having received the vaccine?
 

TTUcamper

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The vaccine is supposed to prevent severe infection. It doesn't make you repel the virus like some kind of magnetic field. You can still get an infection, likely without symptoms. All of this is true for natural immunity too.


True but this vaccine seems to be facilitating the spread and over half the deaths in the UK are people with the vax. It's not supposed to work like this at all.

 

PowerMEGA

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How about compared to other diseases, such as Chicken Pox, or measles etc.

Can you still get the measles after having received the vaccine?
Other viruses don't mutate as much as coronaviruses (and flu viruses). Vaccines like polio, measles, etc. last much longer. I expect C19 to be another cold virus for virtually everyone, not going away ever.

True but this vaccine seems to be facilitating the spread and over half the deaths in the UK are people with the vax. It's not supposed to work like this at all.

I agree those charts do look bad, and shouldn't look like that for a very effective vaccine. If these cases are very mild or asymptomatic cases, I'm not worried. I'd still keep more of an eye on hospitalizations to compare. People that have bad co-morbidities or are on medications that compromise their immunity still have something to worry about, even after the vaccine. One more thing to keep in mind with these UK death numbers is that the overall numbers are very low, so it might be possible to see wild swings in % vaccinated showing up in the deaths. Overall, deaths are mostly irrelevant. Here's a good companion article to read: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57610998
 

Jayhacker

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Other viruses don't mutate as much as coronaviruses (and flu viruses). Vaccines like polio, measles, etc. last much longer. I expect C19 to be another cold virus for virtually everyone, not going away ever.


I agree those charts do look bad, and shouldn't look like that for a very effective vaccine. If these cases are very mild or asymptomatic cases, I'm not worried. I'd still keep more of an eye on hospitalizations to compare. People that have bad co-morbidities or are on medications that compromise their immunity still have something to worry about, even after the vaccine. One more thing to keep in mind with these UK death numbers is that the overall numbers are very low, so it might be possible to see wild swings in % vaccinated showing up in the deaths. Overall, deaths are mostly irrelevant. Here's a good companion article to read: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57610998
I'm still waiting for that vaccine.
 

imprimis

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How many people would accept giving their animals rabies vaccinations if 47% of their animals died from rabies afterwards?

Pull your heads out. This stopped being a health care situation the moment OBiden called Trump xenophobic and racist for imposing flight restrictions on China.
 

Long Cat V2.0

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Bret Weinstein says that the vax is actually creating a super variant. The fact these breakout cases are immune to the vax means that that strain is going to dominate. If these strains get more deadly then you have a worst case scenario.
COVID 21


followed by


Boosters for everybody!
Oprah-you-get-a-.gif


and if you don’t want the shot/booster
2154bc8a0217e58816b1806be5144bc4944a3d59d09e321fe13b137d54b2a2f8.jpg
 

4n6tox

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Wife's boss sent out an email yesterday saying This pandemic is not over!....We are seeing that it is the fault of the unvaccinated. Last week testing showed...

The real power brokers of this country and the world aren't letting this go. Too much control over the masses.
Didn't I read somewhere that CDC is no longer counting infections in vaccinated people? Wouldn't that make sense as to why all of the current infections are in unvaccinated?
 

Jtrain80

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Didn't I read somewhere that CDC is no longer counting infections in vaccinated people? Wouldn't that make sense as to why all of the current infections are in unvaccinated?

They have no problems whatsoever cooking numbers. Its for our own good.

The email I quoted had some stats in it...the CEO conveniently left out the #s for vaxxed people.
 

denn

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This dumb ass actually defends the jab in this article. How this mouth breathing moron can defend the vaccine and at the same time admit it is not a vaccine by admitting the vaxxed are dying at a higher rate than non-vaxxed. What a weird and confusing article.
As I was reading this it felt like even the writer was thinking to himself as he was writing his drivel. "there is no way I can sell this to people, can I?"

Seriously, who read that and said, "yeah, that is certainly plausible?" Unreal how stupid liberals view their followers.
 

4n6tox

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Link? Always good to have this kind of ammo.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

"As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause. This shift will help maximize the quality of the data collected on cases of greatest clinical and public health importance.

Previous data on all vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC from January–April 2021 are available."
 

TheGratefulReb

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Looking at England as an example, since they're a little bit ahead on the timeline with Delta, it's still showing end game results (death) not being any better for vaccinated individuals than unvaccinated. Public Health England is now over two weeks behind on releasing these reports after releasing them weekly, so the numbers may be different now.....but this is the latest.

Vaccinated Deaths - 163 (63.42%)
Unvaccinated Deaths - 92 (35.79%)

proxy.jpg


 

UNC71-00

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my 21 yo daughter is in Europe, has been vaccinated and tested positive for the batflu on Sunday. She had fever, chills, headache, congestion and loss of taste/smell.

The "vaccine" is pointless.
 
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